Futures market

US Rig Count Rise Continues As Crude Production Hits 20-Month Highs

From the May 2016 lows, the number of US oil rig counts have only declined 3 times and this week was no exception. Up for its 15th week in a row (+9 to 697), its highest level since April 2015, the rig count continues to pull US crude production higher, stymying OPEC efforts at balance, leaving the bullish case for oil fading fast.

Why The Crude Rally Has Fizzled - Part 2

So, why is everyone so bullish? Many oil analysts take as a fait accompli that OPEC-led production cuts thus far are key to balancing the crude market. If this is the case, though, why hasn’t it happened yet?

Stocks Drop After Fed Minutes, Bonds Unchanged

Despite the warning by "some" Fed members that stocks are "quite high", and another even more implicit warning, that the Fed may have to revise its forecast if "financial markets were to experience a significant correction", the market's initial reaction to the Fed's warning was to ignore it, although in recent minutes there has been a modest acceleration to the downside across equity markets.

Monetary Metals's picture

Every week we talk about the supply and demand fundamentals. We were surprised to see an article about us this week. The writer thought that our technical analysis cannot see what’s going on in the market. We don’t want to fight with people, we prefer to focus on ideas. So let’s compare and contrast ordinary technical analysis with what Monetary Metals does.

Technical analysis, in all of its forms, uses the past price movements to predict the future price movements. We are not here to argue for or against technical analysis. We simply want to say that it’s not what we are doing. Not at all.

Our analysis is based on different ideas. The key idea is that there is a connection between the spot and futures market. That connection is arbitrage.

"Anything Can Happen" - Is Now The Time To 'Fade The Fed'?

"...don’t misconstrue this statement as a forecast the Fed will not hike next week. A March hike is by far and away the most probable outcome. Yet, the risk reward from a long position in the April expiry still makes sense."

Geithner's Right (For Once)

What Geithner is unwilling to say is what's obvious: now that policymakers have shot their wad and the room for maneuver is limited, there can't be a centralized, painless "fix" for the next inevitable financial crisis.

Speculative Blow-Offs In Stock Markets - Part 2

"...the lagged effects of previous money supply growth excesses are still playing out, just as money supply and credit expansion seems to be coming under pressure. This is combined with a fantasy that is so unlikely, people apparently just cannot bring themselves to doubt its veracity – after all, why would anyone tell such a preposterous story if it were not true?"