Futures market

Marc To Market's picture

Four Issues for the Week Ahead





A dispassionate look at the issues and events shaping the investment climate in the week ahead.  

 
Marc To Market's picture

Fade the Break?





Near-term outlook for the dollar, without resorting to inflammatory and unproven claims.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Most Bizarre Market-Timing Chart Ever?





According to a paper by economists at UC Northwestern University and UC Berkeley, Anna Cieslak and Adair Morse and Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, another, even more surprising trading pattern using FOMC announcement has emerged. Specifically, anyone who engaged in the simple "even" strategy of buying the stocks of the S&P 500 on the day before a Fed policy announcement, selling them a week later, then buying them again the following week and sticking with the pattern until the subsequent Fed meeting generated a whopping 650% return since 1994, far outperforming the inverse "odd" strategy which shocking had a negative return over the past two decades years, and jsut as surprisingly, outperforming the market's own 505% return during this period.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 2





  • France's Sarkozy faces corruption probe in blow to comeback hopes (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Says Military Offensive Against Rebels Yielding Results (WSJ)
  • JPMorgan Investors Show Support for Dimon in Cancer Fight (BBG)
  • World’s ATM Moves to Frankfurt as Yellen’s Fed Slows Cash (BBG)
  • Argentina Seen Backtracking on Fernandez Vows as Legacy at Risk (BBG)
  • Palestinian teen killed in possible revenge attack (Reuters)
  • The Bill and Hillary Clinton Money Machine Taps Corporate Cash (WSJ)
  • London House Prices Surge the Most Since 1987, Nationwide Says (BBG)
  • Last Jew in Afghanistan faces ruin as kebabs fail to sell (Reuters)
 
Marc To Market's picture

The Dollar Shakes, But will it Break?





Overview of the price action in the foreign exchange market and a short word on US 10-year Treasuries.

 
Marc To Market's picture

New Ranges in FX





An overview of the price action in the FX market and a look at US 10-year yields.  No ride on an ideological hobbie horse or axe to grind.  Just trying to make sense of the price aciton

 
EconMatters's picture

Gold Becomes Inflation Hedge as Bond Markets Manipulated by Central Banks





An interesting dynamic taking place in financial markets on Thursday as Gold saw some substantial buying interest up $22 to the $1295 an ounce area. 

 
Marc To Market's picture

FX: Diverging Performances





It is difficult to talk about the dollar in the abstract, especially when it is falling against the dollar-bloc and rising against the euro bloc.  Dispassionate overview.  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Western Banks Scramble As China's "Rehypothecation Evaporation" Goes Global





While we have warned about the problem with near-infinitely rehypothecated physical/funding commodities/metals, be they gold or copper, many times in the past, and most recently here, it was only this week that China finally admitted it has a major problem involving not just the commodities participating in funding deals - in this case copper and aluminum - but specifically their infinite rehypothecation, which usually results in the actual underlying metal mysteriously "disappearing", as in it never was there to begin with. It would appear our fears of global contagion (through various transmission channels) are now coming true as WSJ reports that as many as a half-dozen banks are trying to determine whether the collateral for loans they made to commodities traders was used fraudulently by a third party to obtain other loans. As we detailed previously, it appears the day when the Commodity Funding Deals finally end is fast approaching... and as we note below, why that will certainly be a watershed event.

 
Marc To Market's picture

FX: As You Were





A look at the likely price action in the forex market in the week ahead.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

More On China's "Missing Commodity" Scandal: Fallout Spreads As Banks Get Involved





As we reported yesterday, the third largest Chinese port of Qingdao is being investigated for after a source at a local warehouse said that "it appears there is a discrepancy in metal that should be there and metal that is actually there... We hear the discrepancy is 80,000 tonnes of aluminium and 20,000 tonnes of copper... It's either missing or it was never there - there have been triple issuing of documentation." This has resulted in a prompt and acute selloff of copper and other commodities as we further documents, but the problems may only now be starting and the banks. As Reuters reports, worries over a probe into commodity stockpile financing at China's Qingdao port appeared to deepen on Wednesday as Standard Bank Group and a part-owned unit of Louis Dreyfus Corp warned of potential losses and copper prices fell further."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks Are Soaring While Bonds Are Snoring





S&P (futures over 1900 for first time), Dow, and Nasdaq futures markets are all pressing new higher-highs this morning on the heels of Europe's dismal election news overnight. Helped early on by JPY weakness, stocks now have a mind of their own and have disconnected from an unchanged Treasury futures market (cash is closed) and a fading EURJPY/USDJPY carry trade. European peripheral bonds are the must-have asset of the day with Portuguese bonds particularly loved. Italian stocks are the high-beta idiot-maker trade today (+2.8%).

 

 
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