Futures market

Goldman: "The S&P 500 Is Overvalued"

"Operating and adjusted EPS both indicate high S&P 500 valuation. We show the impact of different macro assumptions on our EPS forecast. S&P 500 is highly valued regardless of how investors measure earnings."

JPM's Head Quant Explains Who Unleashed The S&P Rally, And What May Happen Next

What is the fate of this market rally? In terms of technical flows, more inflows would come if 3M and 12M momentum turn positive, which would happen at ~2025 and ~2075, respectively. If volatility stays subdued, volatility-managed strategies could also increase equity exposure. However, equity momentum is also vulnerable to the downside and a move lower could be accelerated by 6M and 1M momentum unraveling at ~1950 and ~1900, respectively.

"Has Everyone Lost Their Freaking Minds?"

It’s getting weird and the market is having a tough time figuring out what to take seriously, what to ignore, what to laugh nervously about and what to just laugh at. Are serious economists actually have a debate about whether it is a good idea to just print up cash and pass it out? Is that really monetary policy? Are governments really talking about banning actual currency, the very money created by that government? Money that depends, oh by the way, solely on people’s trust that the government will stand behind the money they are about to outlaw? Has everyone lost their freaking minds?

NatGas Tumbles To 16-Year Lows

More "unequivocally good" news. On the heels of a smaller than expected drawdown in natural gas inventories (-117 vs -135bcf), Nattie futures have tumbled to their lowest intraday level since 1999...

Repricing Reality

It ought to be a foregone conclusion that Mr. Obama’s replacement starting January 20, 2017 will preside over conditions of disorder in everyday life and economy never seen before. For the supposedly thinking class in America, the end of reality-optional politics will come as the surprise of their lives.

Neil Howe Warns The 'Professional Class' Is Still In Denial Of The Fourth Turning

"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."

The Golden Age

Some people say that gold is dead. They point to deflationary pressures and a bear market that started back in September of 2011. The bulls have been wrong for years; however, that may be about to change…

Gold Money's picture

If equities sell off another 20% like 2008, gold would not follow them down in a  "dollar short squeeze or flight to quality". There is now a very different real interest rate and energy price setup and gold doesn't have the same macro correlations as before.