News about the spread of the Ebola virus has been an increasing focus for market participants in recent days. Despite rising media coverage, Ebola seems to have had little discernible effect on consumer sentiment to date. However, as Goldman Sachs notes, the "fear factor" associated with Ebola appears more significant than in past instances of pandemic concern. While expert opinion sees the likelihood of a significant outbreak of Ebola in the US as very low, it is likely any negative macroeconomic consequences are most likely to be transmitted through fear or risk-aversion channels.
Every quarter we take a break from all the standard economic indicators to look at a range of alternative data. The purpose here is to pose the question: “Does the consensus view of the U.S. economy square with what real people do in their day to day lives?” Overall, the news from “Off the Grid” challenges the notion that the U.S. economy is on solid ground and accelerating. Inching forward, yes... But not much more.
The polls in Scotland will close this week on one of the more important elections in recent history... perhaps one of the only elections that actually matters. Every eligible voter has a say, and a simple majority decides the outcome for everyone else. By definition, this is the purest possible form of the democratic process. But that’s not what’s happening. British politicians are scared to death that Scotland will file for divorce; so they’re doing everything they can to influence the outcome of this supposedly impartial democratic process. They’ve spent an incalculable amount of money trying to influence the outcome, effectively subverting a democratic election.
This is a trend that has outlasted three Presidents and six Congresses. It’s not about a single politician, or even ALL the politicians. It’s about the system itself.
Just a few hours ahead of President Obama's strategy oration, we thought worth noting that Americans' trust in the federal government to handle international problems has fallen to a record-low 43%. According to Gallup, confidence in the government to handle international problems slid 17 percentage points last year, when the Obama administration was planning military action against Syria. Unsurprisingly, Democrats remain the most confident in the government as Republicans' faith has collapsed. But it's not just international, only 40% of Americans have any confidence that government can handle domestic problems - also a record low.
Despite the exuberance of certain government-sponsored confidence surveys, Gallup's weekly measure of economic confidence in America continues to go absolutely nowhere. As they note, so far, 2014 has been a unique year for the U.S. Economic Confidence Index in its doldrum-like range, stagnant and still negative.
Poll after poll confirms what we're sure you’ve already been feeling. People are disenchanted with the existing system. They don’t trust the government, they don’t trust the banks, and they don’t trust the media. You can hear the rumblings of grumblings, and it’s only growing louder and louder. It doesn’t have to be this way.
Americans Have Lost Faith
If you are fortunate enough to have a job in America today, the phrase "just over broke" probably describes you. Yes, there are a handful of jobs that certainly pay very well, but most Americans that work for somebody else are just barely making it from month to month. More than half of all working Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, and more than half of all working Americans make less than $30,000 a year. Something has gone horribly wrong, and yet our leaders just keep telling us how wonderful our economy is.
Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index dropped slightly to -17 for the week ending August 10th, hovering just off the lows of 2014 as only 38% of Americans believe the economy is "getting better." Perhaps even more concerning, given record high stock prices and cycle low unemployment rates, only 19% of Americans said the economy is "excellent" or "good," - the lowest in 5 months. Gallup concludes, generally speaking, Americans remain more negative than positive about the economy, but are less negative than they were in the first few years after the Great Recession - $4 trillion later.
America The Divided: Everyone Knows We Have Problems But There Is Very Little Agreement On SolutionsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2014 21:21 -0400
A house divided against itself will surely fall. America is more divided today than it has been in decades, and the deep divisions that are tearing us apart continue to get even worse. In fact, a newly released Rasmussen Reports national survey discovered that 67 percent of voters believe that America is even more divided now than it was four years ago. What most Americans can agree on is that we are facing tremendous problems as a nation. Unfortunately, there is very little agreement on what the solutions to our problems are.
Don’t let a good crisis go to waste – Vladimir Putin's slogan.
"Costs" and "Consequences"... not only has US foreign policy enabled Vladimir Putin's approval rating to surge to record highs but, perhaps more importantly, it has driven a massive wedge between the West and the rest...