“The risk of a US recession next year is rising fast” and “the Federal Reserve has no margin for error” according to Ambrose Evans Pritchard writing in the Telegraph. "AEP" is quite well connected and very well informed on such matters and hence the need to consider what he is saying and more importantly prepare.
Government poses a threat to liberty, that much is clear. But what may be surprising is that almost half of Americans clearly identified government as a clear and “immediate” threat, and are obviously outraged about what is going on. It is time that Americans embrace their anger at government, and focus their attention past the politicians to the real problem. Start with the bankers, follow the money, and see where it goes...
While Mr. Dimon's view - "Amerca has the best hand ever dealt right now." is certainly uplifting, it is a bit delusional. But of course, give any person a billion dollars and they will likely become just as detached from economic realities. Does America have "greatest hand ever dealt." The data certainly doesn't suggest such. However, that can change. We just have to stop hoping that we can magically cure a debt problem by adding more debt and then shuffling it between Central Banks.
The greater the economic freedom, the wealthier and happier the people. States with more libertarian free market policies enjoy better results: greater median incomes, a more equitable distribution, less poverty, greater success for minorities and immigrants, and higher overall levels of happiness and well-being. In the political rhetoric landscape the battle of ideology is fierce and filled with demagoguery; in the real world the difference in results between competing economic policies are strikingly clear.
"The weakness in the August BAC data suggests a high risk for softness in the Census Bureau advance retail sales report given that the two measures trend closely. While we know that the retail sales figures are volatile and subject to revisions, it is hard to ignore a weak report." Why is all of the above particularly important? Because with the August Retail Spending report due on September 15, it will be the last report on the economy the Fed will read ahead of its "most important if not ever then surely in the past decade" FOMC meeting starting on September 16, and concluding with the 2pm announcement on September 17.
With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sending a letter to Congress this evening demanding they raise the debt limit as soon as possible, warning that cash balances have dropped below the "minimum target," it is perhaps less than surprising that Goldman Sachs is warning that a government shutdown at the end of the month has become much more likely over the last several weeks. While out-months in VIX (beyond the prospective shutdown) remain elevated, Goldman finds a silver-lining claiming that the effect of a potential shutdown on financial markets and the real economy would probably be modest if it did occur. We shall see...
according to the latest Gallup report on US consumer spending, in which a random sample of 15.724 adults were interviewed by phone, Americans' self-reported daily spending averaged just $89 in August, down not only from August in 2014 and 2013 but the fourth month in a row of year-over-year spending declines, as well as was also the lowest monthly spend since March of 2015. And this time there are no "scapegoats" to blame the spending slowdown on: the weather in August was uniformly gorgeous around the US.
Five years of austerity, higher taxes, deep cuts in public spending, record suicide rates, and homelessness beyond anyone's worst forecasts... is it any wonder that, as Gallup reports, a majority of adults in the country - 55% - said in a poll that they think converting from the Greek drachma to the euro in 2001 has harmed Greece.
Our form of government today allows revolution (theoretically) through the ballot box rather than on the battlefield. But nonetheless, the message for our political elites today is much the same as it was in 1776: They ignore the people’s contempt at their own risk.
After July's disappointing drop in UMich Consumer Confidence, August did not help. Printing 91.9, below expectations of 93.0, UMich is hovering at the 2015 lows. Both current and future sub-indices dropped with hope falling to its lowest since 2014 (biggest 7mo decline in 2 years). Income growth expectations dropped and business expectations dropped to lowest since Sept 2014. This follows the highest conference board confidence in 2015 and lowest Gallup confidence in a year. Bill Dudley will be disappointed after proclaiming this a key driver of The Fed's rate hike call (more important than jobs).
Almost 50% more Americans believe the US economy is getting worse than are optimistic about the future. Gallup's latest economic survey shows the economic outlook among Americans at its weakest since September 2014.
The presumed Democratic nominee is set to roll out her plan to confront the $1.2 trillion student loan bubble. As Bloomberg reports, the pitch is expected to be one of the "biggest-ticket policy proposals of her presidential campaign," totaling some $350 billion and will include $200 billion for states who will be encouraged to do more to facilitate loan-free college educations and a $150 billion refi effort for the country’s heavily indebted students.