Gambling

• Prepare for Lehmans (sic) re-run, Bank official warns (Telegraph)
• Fed Seen Extending Operation Twist While Avoiding Bond Buying (Bloomberg)
• US Watchdog Hits at ‘Risky’ London (FT)
• G20 Bid to Cut Cost of Euro Borrowing (FT)
• Romney Says Rubio Being Examined as Possible Running Mate (Bloomberg)
• Hollande Says Worth Exploring ESM Bond Buys (Reuters)
• US Upbeat After Eurozone Debt Crisis Talks (FT)
• BOJ Members Say Japan Could Be ‘Adversely Affected’ by Europe (Bloomberg)
• China Steps Said to Grow Bond Market, Add Issuer Scrutiny (Bloomberg)
• How Asia Will Fare if Europe Cracks (WSJ)

America's welfare state is about to suffer a double whammy of epic proportions. On one hand, extended unemployment benefits are now running out at a pace of 100,000+ per week, as more and more American's lose eligibility for Komrade Samov's 99-week sponsored vacation, meaning millions of Americans heretofore sitting comfortably on their couch playing Call of Duty and collecting $400 a week will now start having to think for a change - never a good thing for any regime that relies on its electorate to be docile as drunk and fat Hindu cows. And now this: "New York would prohibit welfare recipients from spending their tax-funded benefits on cigarettes, alcohol, gambling, and strip clubs under a bill passed overwhelmingly by the state Senate on Tuesday. "I understand that people need food stamps," said Republican Sen. Thomas Libous, a Broome County Republican. "What I don't understand is why they need to go to strip clubs, buy lottery tickets, go to a 'racino' or buy alcohol." Wait, you mean you can't spend other people's money to pay for a lap dance? What crazy form of inhumane austerity is this. And isn't spending taxpayer dollars at the Spearmint Rhino one of the amendments to the post-Obama constitution? But perhaps the scariest implication is that New Yorkers actually do spend their EBT money at the Spearmint Rhino right off the card, being ripped off with the traditional 15% plastic surcharge instead of just paying cash. Now that is really stupid.

In a somewhat inspired line of questioning by Rep. Gary Ackerman on the differences between 'investing' and 'gambling', the JPMorgan CEO diligently notes that "on average Gamblers lose" implicitly stating, we assume, that 'investors on average win'. Ackerman interestingly takes up the common myth that banks (and Wall Street in general) were 'on the level' and 'facilitated investing' but to him the 'hedges' that JPM (among others) are placing are nothing but gambling as he correctly notes the dismal truth that banks are not in fact there for the common good in "helping jobs and being good for America". Betting against your initial bet suggests a lack of 'knowing what you are doing' is how Ackerman frames his concerns, and furthermore (as we pointed out), hedging against your hedge just makes the whole thing farcical as if "throwing darts at a dartboard" and in the process does not help the economy or create one job. The main thrust being that: if JPM is right a majority of the time it helps the company, but if they are wrong it puts systemically everything at risk - the public investing confidence in the system (an unhedgeable risk). Dimon's contrite response is: "We don't gamble; we do make mistakes."

As expected, absolutely nothing new was disclosed in today's latest Jamie Dimon dog and pony show. To summarize what we did learn:

• "JPM is not too big to fail, but it is not at risk of failing unless the earth is hit by the moon"
• "We make CDS for the benefit of veterans, retirees, orphans and widows"
• "We only bought Bear's assets in a firesale while the Fed backstopped its liabilities, because the US government made us"
• "VaR can be made to show anything. We have a closet full of models"
• "Gambling is not investing"

Finally, Jamie Dimon once again refused to disclose the to-date losses on the CIO trade, but promises the firm will be profitable. Which only leaves one question open: how much "profit" from "reserve release" and "DVA", aka blowing out in JPM CDS, will the firm need to take to mask the CIO losses?

Following the nationalization of YPF several months ago, Argentina's recent anti-private industry overtures largely fell off the map. Until the last few days, when bondholders of Spanish gambling company Company have seen their holdings seemingly disappear in a big Greece vortex (modern parlance for infinite drain of wealth): the reason - bonds plunged on speculation the Argentina gaming industry may be next to go under sovereign control. From Bloomberg: "Bonds from Codere, the Spanish gambling company that depends on Argentina for more than half its earnings, are the world’s worst-performing euro-denominated notes on speculation President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner may seize the South American country’s gaming industry. Yields on the company’s 660 million euros of bonds due 2015 climbed 496 basis points last week to 18.97 percent. The performance was the worst among more than 2,000 securities tracked by BAML’s Euro High Yield and EMU Corporate indexes." The problem: should already highly leveraged Codere's Argentina operations be indeed nationalized, the bond will almost likely be Corzined, with recoveries which we expect will be comparable to those of Sino Forest.

As we witness the riotous dissolution of corrupted capitalism, we need not wait for the history books to identify the mile markers of self-destruction. If we are to rebuild capitalism, even as it is tearing itself down, then we will need to become street-smart detectives in analyzing the current economic murder-suicide in progress. Every fall has its tell-tale confirmations and corrupt capitalism is no exception. There arrive key points where a system’s own contradictions become so evident and self-damaging, where motive, means, and opportunity become so clear, that one can mount an informed, effective counter-offensive.

At the high level, our global economic plight is quite simple to understand says noted Australian deflationist Steve Keen.  Banks began lending money at a faster rate than the global economy grew, and we're now at the turning point where we simply have run out of new borrowers for the ever-growing debt the system has become addicted to. Once borrowers start eschewing rather than seeking debt, asset prices begin to fall -- which in turn makes these same people want to liquidate their holdings, which puts further downward pressure on asset prices.

All you need to read.

… Which Will Lead to Bailouts and Encourage Even More Fraud

The impression that bankers and regulators have seems to be that banks are doing customers a favour by holding onto their money and occasionally losing it all buying junk securities. Nope. In a free market, banks that tried to charge customers for the privilege would be laughed out of the marketplace. Banks — by their very definition as intermediaries — generate profits from making good investments, not by charging customers for the privilege of holding their money. Unfortunately this isn’t a free market, and banks can (and probably will) co-ordinate with each other to keep the market uncompetitive. Barriers to entry make it difficult to impossible for new players to enter the market and dislodge the status quo.

Goodbye, living spirit.

Building on yesterday's discussion of the lack of an integrated banking system and credible lender of last resort in Europe, UBS appears to have gone thermonuclear this morning. Their lengthy article 'What If Greece Goes?' outlines the contagion risk from an 'orderly' exit as markets, international trading companies, and bank depositors will all anticipate the consequences likely resulting in economic disorder. Their remains a great deal of complacency about the ability of firewalls to prevent this - but as they note - should bank runs begin, even a pan-European deposit guarantee scheme will not stop rational depositors extending bank runs instead of gambling on the probability of policy-maker actions. Laying out Greece's options (renegotiate austerity or default), UBS summarizes the situation more profoundly: "Integrate Or Die" as without a Euro confederation (in their eyes), continental Europe will cry 'havoc' once again.

This is where we stand right about now.

One of the few things we know with certainty is that which is unsustainable will go away and be replaced by another more sustainable arrangement. Whether we like it or not, or are willing to accept reality or not, unsustainable public pensions will go away. What makes "defined benefit" pensions unsustainable? 1) Promised cash/benefits packages that are not aligned with the fiscal realities of what can be contributed annually to the pension funds 2) New Normal low yields on low-risk investments and 3) skyrocketing costs of healthcare benefits.

This is easily illustrated with basic math.

It’s 1933 and the country has undergone several years of painful Depression following the 1920s speculation that crashed in the fall of 1929. Investigations into the bank related causes began under Republican President, Herbert Hoover and continued under Democratic President, FDR. Okay, that’s pretty common knowledge. But, here’s something that isn’t: of all the giant banks operating their trusts schemes and taking advantage of off-book deals, and international bets in the late 1920s, it was an incoming head of Chase (replacing Al Wiggins who shorted Chase stock in a network of fraud) that advocated for Glass-Steagall. Indeed, despite all pedigree to the opposite (his father was Senator Nelson Aldrich architect of the Federal Reserve and brother-in-law, John D. Rockefeller), Chase Chair, Winthrop Aldrich, took to the front pages of the New York Times in March, 1933 to pitch decisive separation of commercial and speculative activity arguments.  Fellow bankers hated him. His motives weren’t totally altruistic to be sure, but somewhere in his calculation that Chase would survive a separation of activities and emerge stronger than rival, Morgan Bank, was an awareness that something more – permanent – had to be put in place if only to save the banking industry from future confidence breaches and loss. It turned out he was right. And wrong. (much more on that in my next book, research still ongoing.) Financial history has a sense of irony. JPM Chase was the post-Glass-Steagall repeal marriage, 66 years in the making, of  Morgan Bank and Chase. Today, it is the largest bank in America, possessing greater control of the nation’s cash than any other bank.  It also has the largest derivatives exposure ($70 trillion) including nearly $6 trillion worth of credit derivatives.