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The Death Of Europe





European leaders talk about two things these days; preserving European values by taking in Muslim migrants and integrating Muslim migrants into Europe by getting them to adopt European values. It does not occur to them that their plan to save European values depends on killing European values.

 
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BTFD Bravado Hails From A Hill Made Of Bull





One would think that 'little incident in August' never happened. Yes, the markets once again rewarded the BTFD crowd. But (and it’s a very big but) not because it’s a market. This is what takes place in a casino. Confusing financial market expertise and casino gambling is the mistake today’s “bull” crowd keeps making. And just like most gamblers – the odds turn out of your favor just when you believed you had “the” sure-fire system to beat them.

 
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China's Red Capitalism Is The New Black Swan





From the bowels of Australia’s iron ore mines to the top of Dubai’s pointless 100 story office towers, the entire warp and woof of the global economy has been distorted and bloated by the central bank money printing spree of the last two decades, led by the red credit machines of Beijing. Everywhere economies have succumbed to over-building, over-consumption, over-financialization and endless dangerous, unstable speculation. Stated differently, China’s red capitalism is the new black swan. There is nothing rational, stable or sustainable about it.

 
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Will "Vice" Stocks' Out-Performance Put Clamps On The Bull Market?





Stocks of “vice” industries like alcohol and tobacco are showing leadership – that hasn’t always been good news for the market.

 
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Weekend Reading: Weighed, Measured And Found Wanting





"Since Washington doesn't understand what went wrong in 2007 and 2008, so the Fed, the White House and Congress are recreating the very same conditions for another financial bubble. If it pops, we could replay the same devastating effects as occurred during the first bubble in 1999 and 2000.

 
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Frontrunning: October 16





  • McDonald’s Close to Deciding Whether to Change Structure of U.S. Real Estate (WSJ)
  • Stocks Rise as Stimulus Bets Spur $4.1 Trillion Gain; Oil Climbs (BBG)
  • Wall Street bonuses likely to plunge as trading revenue drops (Reuters)
  • Syrian army launches Aleppo offensive with Iranian support (Reuters)
  • Malaysia’s Najib Razak Played Key Role at Troubled 1MDB Investment Fund (WSJ)
  • VW Loses Market Share in Europe as Diesel-Motor Recalls Loom (BBG)
 
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Nevada Shuts Down Fantasy Sports Sites: Apply For A Gaming License Or Face A Decade In Prison





As AP reports, "the state's Gaming Control Board issued a notice Thursday saying the sites must stop offering their contests to Nevada residents effective immediately. Operators face felony fines and 10 years in prison." Of course with a federal investigation looming, this is just the start of what, in sports terms, is likely to be a prolonged and deep slump for the industry - you can bet on that. 

 
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Crony Capitalism - The Real Cause Of Society's Problems





Since the economic downturn of 2008, the critics of capitalism have redoubled their efforts to persuade the American people and many others around the world that the system of individual freedom and free enterprise has failed. These critics have insisted that it is unbridled capitalism, set loose on the world, which is the source of all of our personal and society misfortunes. The political and economic crises through which the world suffers is not the crisis or failure of the free market. No, it is the crisis and failure of the interventionist-welfare state, and its anti-free market capitalist ideology.

 
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When You Use A Smartphone In China, You Agree Not To...





  • Endangering national security, leaking state secrets, subverting the government, and undermining national unity;
  • Inciting ethnic hatred or ethnic discrimination, and undermining national unity;
  • Spreading rumor, disturbing social orders, undermining social stability;
  • Spreading obscenity, pornography, gambling, violence, murder, terrorism or instigating others to commit crimes;
  • Insulting or slandering others, infringing upon the legal rights and interest of others;
 
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The Liquidations Begin: Three Hedge Funds Shut Down After Summer Rout





"As you know, the environment for global macro fundamentals-based trading continues to be challenging. That factor, combined with the lack of certainty over when a recovery will take hold, led us to conclude that the time was right to return capital to you."

 
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Who Owns Your Presidential Candidate?





Despite the arguably undemocratic, obfuscating nature of our nation’s campaign finance laws and the blatant corporatist agenda mandated by the Supreme Court, let’s attempt to break down the major sources of political spending so far in the 2016 presidential election. You may be surprised to find out who is donating money to your candidate — and how that contribution may affect future policy positions.

 
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Humans Are No Longer The Apex Predator In Capital Markets (But We Act As If We Are)





How many of us are bored to tears with the Fed’s Hamlet act on raising rates, and yet have been staring at this debate for so long that we have convinced ourselves that we have a meaningful view on what will transpire, even though it’s a decision where we have zero investing edge and unknowable risk/reward odds. The hardest thing in the world for talented people is to avoid turning a low edge and odds opportunity into an unreasonably high conviction bet simply because we want it so badly and have analyzed the situation so smartly. In both poker and investing, we brutally overestimate the edge and odds associated with merely ordinary opportunities once we’ve been forced by circumstances to sit on our hands for a while. Investment discipline suffers under the weight of dullness and low conviction in at least four distinct ways here in the Golden Age of the Central Banker...

 
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A Desperate China Caps Card Withdrawals In Frantic Attempt To Stem Outflows





Now that the yuan deval debacle has served to accelerate capital outflows, Beijing is set to double down on efforts to curb the degree to which capital controls are openly subverted and as WSJ reports, China is has now “put a new annual cap on overseas cash withdrawals using UnionPay.”

 
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Frontrunning: September 30





  • Asia shares rally, but on track for worst quarterly loss in four years (Reuters)
  • Global Rally Shows Relief at End of $11 Trillion Stocks Meltdown (BBG)
  • Glencore Extends Rebound as Turmoil Shows Signs of Easing (BBG)
  • Putin wins parliamentary backing for air strikes in Syria (Reuters)
  • China Cuts Minimum Home Down Payment for First-Time Buyers (BBG)
  • German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in Sign of Economic Risks (BBG)
  • Japan Industrial Output Slide Hints at Recession (WSJ)
 
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