Global Economy

One Striking Chart Shows Why, According to MS, The Next Global Recession Begins In China

here is the chart revealing what may be the most unsustainable trend in China, one that is even more dramatic than China relentless debt growth: accounted for 26% of global annual capex in 2015, compared with 9% in 2006 and 5% in 2000. Hence, as China continues to invest with low return expectations, that this will continue to weigh on the global returns on capital employed.

The Number One Factor Influencing Fed Monetary Policy

In short, the economic model of the second half of the 20th century is over.  Increased issuances of debt no longer translate into increased economic growth.  Instead, they produce wild asset price swings, casino style speculation, and epic bubbles and busts.  Nonetheless, the technocrats continue offering up yesterday’s solutions with unabashed certainty.

The Disgusting Silence Fueling Crony Capitalism

Free market capitalism - the very heart, soul, and driving engine that has propelled technology, medicine, transportation, manufacturing, efficient markets, and so much more - is not only under assault; it is being left out to hang like some dried, dead leaf by the very people who should be at the forefront for its defense. i.e., CEO’s and business leaders of all stripes. Yet, so far – the silence is deafening.

The Permian Pitfall: A Race To The Bottom For Tight Oil

Remember the shale gale and Saudi America? The scale of those outlandish delusions has now dwindled to plays in a few counties in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Saudi Permian. It’s a race to the bottom as investors double down on the tight oil companies that can still tell a growth story.

Goldman "Explains" Why Yellen Lost Credibility: "In Our View, The Fed Has Been Unlucky"

"The May 18 minutes surprised virtually everyone by guiding strongly toward a rate hike in June or July, and Chair Yellen reinforced this message in her remarks at Harvard University on May 27. But the weak May employment report released on June 3 and increased concern about the UK referendum again triggered a sharp pivot, putting on hold the notion of further hikes. These dramatic shifts have frustrated many market participants. In our view, the Fed has been unlucky."

Jeffrey Snider: All Signs Point To Systemic Reset

"... what’s happened in stocks is more a myth than actual reality. Investors in stocks are buying at ridiculous valuations based on the premise that the Fed can create a recovery through liquidity. And what 2014 and 2015 show us is that this simply wasn’t true! ...the longer the earnings recession lingers, the higher the risk that stock investors will realize that they’ve been following the wrong story all along!"