Global Economy

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Gold In 2016: "Economic Power Is Shifting"





An unseen bubble at the heart of the financial system is deflating with unknown consequences. When bubbles deflate, and here we are talking about one in the hundreds of trillions, bad debts are usually exposed. Even though much of the reduction in outstanding OTC derivatives is due to consolidation of positions following the Frank Dodd Act, much of it is not. When free markets reassert themselves, and they always do, the disruption promises to be substantial. We appear to be in the early stages of this event. If so, demand for physical gold can be expected to escalate rapidly as a financial crisis unfolds.

 

 
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Raoul Pal Explains What Indicators He Looks At To Decide If The Next Crisis Has Arrived





Today, we bring our readers another RealVision excerpt of a reflexive "interview" in which Pal himself is in the hot seat, and goes into detail explaining the indicators he will be watching throughout 2016 that will suggest that a liquidity crisis is imminent.

 
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2016 Theme #5: The Systemic Failure of High Finance





High finance isn't the cure - it's the disease.

 
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Priced For Perfection - Why This Burrito Market Is Heading For A Fall





In March 2014 Wall Street’s ex-items S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2015 was about $133 per share; it ended up 20% lower at $106. Yet here they go again - the consensus for 2016 started out at $137 per share last spring, and is just now beginning to make its way back toward the high $120s. It is a barometer of the abject complacency and intellectual sloth that has descended on the casino owing to two decades of Fed coddling and seven year of free money for the carry trades. In the case of Chipotle, it was always just a burrito. In the case of the US and world economy and financial markets, it’s not even that.

 
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Russell Napier Explains How The Decline Of The Yuan Destroys Belief In Central Banking





If you had not noticed, 2016 has begun with gold and the USD rising simultaneously. This is different and important. This is very positive for gold and very bad for the world...

 
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Bob Janjuah Warns The Bubble Implosion Can't Be "Fixed" This Time





Having correctly foreseen in September that "China's devaluations are not over yet" it appears Nomura's infamous 'bear' Bob Janjuah has also nailed The Fed's subsequent actions (hiking rates into a fundamentally weakening economy in a desperate bid to "convince markets that strong growth and inflation are on their way back"). In light of this, his latest note today should be worrisome to many as he warns the S&P 500 will trade down around 20% to 25% from current levels in H1, down to the 1500s and for dip-buyers, it's over: "I now feel even more certain that debt-driven asset bubble implosions cannot merely be 'fixed' with even more debt and another round of central bank-driven asset bubbles."

 
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2016 Theme #4: The End-Game Of Debt-Fueled "Growth"





It's requiring more borrowed yen/yuan/dollars/euros just to keep the global economy from collapsing in a heap of impaired debt. The costs of waste, fraud and mal-investment are finally coming home to roost, and while near-zero interest rates serve to mask the future costs, near-zero rates cannot stem the rising tide of mal-investment. Rather, near-zero rates have fueled mal-investment, waste and unproductive spending. The diminishing returns on that strategy of "growth" are inescapable.

 
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2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies





The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies - money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank. This doesn't just open the possibility of escaping the debt-serfdom of central and private banks - it opens the door to an entire global economy that's free of the inequality and concentration of wealth and power that is the only possible output of central bank created and distributed money.

 
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China Has A "Colossal Credit Bubble" And No One Knows How It Will Unwind, Marc Faber Warns





"We had a hard landing in the stock market already. We had a hard landing in commodities. [So yes], we could have a hard landing in the economy. China has a colossal credit bubble and no one knows how it's going to unwind."

 
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Frontrunning: January 6





  • Obama, wiping tears, makes new push to tighten gun rules (Reuters)
  • Global stocks hit by China worries, North Korea nuclear test (Reuters)
  • Oil hits 11-year low, Saudi-Iran row cuts chances of output restraint (Reuters)
  • North Korea says successfully conducts first H-bomb test (Reuters)
  • Valeant Planning to Appoint New Leader as CEO Remains Hospitalized (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Extend 2016 Winning Start With Growth Outlook Clouded (BBG)
 
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Visualizing How The Global Economy Played Out In 2015





Many people start a new year with renewed optimism. However, "New Year, Same Problems" is the meme of 2016... and recent trading has dashed some of that optimistic 'This time it's different' hope.

 
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'Still' Safe On The Sidelines - 501 Days And Counting





The S&P 500 first crossed yesterday's levels in August 2014 - that is 501 days ago, confirming our belief that the stock market casino has just begun its descent has only been further reinforced. In terms of the fundamental economic and financial rot now coming to the visible surface, the analysis we presented last week is even more timely now.

 
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What Comes After The Commodities Bust?





The one thing executives should have learned in 2015 is that Wall Street can for long periods of time remain disconnected from fundamentals and can swing to extremes. Another lesson from 2015 is that OPEC can no longer be relied upon to set prices. Thus, the debt fueled financing boom in the shale space will most likely never return.  This is especially true now that there are clear signs that the U.S. economy is weakening while the Fed chose to raise the federal interest rates in December. As we move through 2016, expect a rash of bankruptcies tied to this transition to lower leverage, and towards the latter half of 2016 there will likely be a steep fall off of production.

 
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Stocks Resume Rout After Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders





After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day. 

 
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