As we reported last night, whether as a result of Snowden revelations and NSA blowback by BRIC nations, or simply because the global economy is contracting far faster than rigged and manipulated markets worldwide will admit, IBM's Q1 revenues not only missed consensus earnings, but dropped to their lowest level since 2009. And yet, IBM stock is just shy off its all time highs and earnings per share have been flat if not rising during this period, leading even such acclaimed investors who never invest in tech companies as Warren Buffett to give IBM the seal of approval. How is that possible? Simple: all that investment grade companies like IBM have done in the New Normal in order to preserve the illusion of growth, is to use cash from operations, or incremental zero-cost leverage, to fund stock buybacks. In essence a balance sheet for income statement tradeoff. However, that "great stock buyback gimmick" as we call it, is finally coming to an end.
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have made significant progress in setting up structures that would serve as an alternative to the IMF and the World Bank (which are dominated by the U.S. and the EU), according to RBTH. As WSJ reports, the U.S. would lose its veto power on the International Monetary Fund's executive board under a plan being considered by some emerging economies. The countries are fed up with the United States' failure to ratify a four-year-old deal to restructure the emergency lender. Yet more loss of credibility on the global stage and, as Brazil's FinMin Mantega sums up, "the IMF cannot remain paralyzed and postpone its commitments to reform."
Ukraine is quickly turning into a Vietnam moment for the US political scene. When will parties in the USA (including Obama camp “progressives”) stop cheerleading for a showdown over this hapless doormat of a faraway nation whose destiny is not entwined with the people of Ohio, Nebraska, Rhode Island, or any of the other fifty states? We have enough to do in our own country to adjust to the new realities of the unraveling turbo-industrial global economy — and, by the way, we are not doing a damn thing to address any of it. Our domestic political conversation at all levels is juvenile and idiotic.
We realize the future for blogging was bright, but this bright? Moments ago, Bloomberg View, Bloomberg's in house blogging operation, announced that El-Erian had joined it as a columnist. And just like that Mohamed has his own unedited venue in which to spill all the dirt on his former employer.
Rickards does not expressly say one should put 33% of one’s wealth in gold but suggests that an allocation of between 10% and 33% would be prudent. In this regard, he echos Dr Marc Faber who suggested a 25% allocation to precious metals last week.
The Fed’s transmission mechanism to the household sector is blocked. The business credit expansion channel to higher GDP is blocked, too. The flood of demand by which the Fed endeavors to “pull” idle and underemployed workers back into production cannot be activated if the US economy has reached a condition of peak debt, as we strongly believe to be the case. Indeed, when the credit expansion channel is broken and done, all the Fed’s liquidity “accommodation” flows into the Wall Street finance channel where it pulls up the price of existing financial assets, not the employment rate of idle labor. This much is obvious, yet Yellen and her monetary politburo keep on attempting to flood the nation’s macroeconomic bathtub with more “demand”. Worse still, they fail to note that even if they could induce business and households to bury themselves deeper in debt that it wouldn’t necessarily have a salutary impact on the “labor market”— the ostensible target of their strenuous ministrations.
The EU agreement on a common rulebook for handling bank failures, including bail-ins, is in danger of unravelling over the fine print restricting when a state can intervene to rescue a struggling bank. It is important to realise that not just the EU, but also the UK, the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand and most G20 nations have plans for depositor bail-ins ...
So from MF Global's "vaporized" commingled client assets to Basel's "evaporated" toughened derivatives rules, the banks are indeed "very happy." And now back to perpetuation the illusion that the system is stable.
Most Buy Side managers have no idea about the disparate business models of the four largest US banks by assets.
Accounting tricks and manipulation of economic data is taking place globally and will contribute to people being misled regarding the true state of national economies and the global economy. The false sense of security seen before the global financial crisis has returned ... it can only end in tears ...
Another quarter, and another attempt at predicting the future by the people whose predictions have become the biggest butt of all economics jokes, even more so than Paul Krugman columns. We are talking, of course, about the IMF's World Economic Outlook update.
Some out there were waiting on the International Monetary Fund’s new World Economic Outlook report to be issued today. Some were waiting. Most didn’t care, since it was going to contain a tissue of inter-woven statements that probably say what we have already been thinking (at least we could have hoped that they might be that honest) about the dire straits of the world economy.
The last time global equity markets were falling at this pace (on a growth scare) was the fall of 2011. That time, after a big push lower, November saw a mass co-ordinated easing by central banks to save the world... stock jumped, the global economy spurted into action briefly, and all was well. This time, it's different. The Fed is tapering (and the hurdle to change course is high), the ECB balance sheet is shrinking (and there's nothing but promises), the PBOC tonight said "anyone anticipating additional stimulus would be disappointed," and then the BoJ failed to increase their already-ridiculous QE (ETF purchase) programs. The JPY is strengthening, Asian and US stocks are dropping, CNY is weakening, and gold rising.
Market consensus is that deflation remains the greatest threat to the global economy. But that's ignoring signs of impending inflation, particularly in the US.
In terms of economic might, BBVA has created an index of "world market power" enabling an at-a-glance view of a nation's impact on the global economy via relevance of exports, exposure to external shocks, technological content, and retained value-added. And the winner is... Hint, not USA...