Global Economy

BIll Gross: Beware The "Unknown Consequences Lurking In The Shadows"

"the adherence of Yellen, Bernanke, Draghi, and Kuroda, among others, to standard historical models such as the Taylor Rule and the Phillips curve has distorted capitalism as we once knew it, with unknown consequences lurking in the shadows of future years."

Why 2017 Is Like 1969

A deeply polarizing new president, a disastrously misguided official narrative that the political Establishment doggedly supports despite a damning lack of evidence, and an economy teetering on the edge of recession--and worse. Sound familiar? Welcome to 1969 redux. The similarities between the crises unfolding in 1969 and the present-day crises are not just skin-deep--they're systemic.

Frontrunning: July 18

  • U.S. Republicans left scrambling after health bill sinks again (Reuters); Republicans Give Up on Health-Care Reform, Now Seek Straight Repeal (BBG)
  • Trump Blames Democrats and a ‘Few Republicans’ for Health-Bill Wreck (BBG)
  • House Republicans Set Out Plan to Rewrite Tax Code (WSJ)
  • House GOP Budget Ignores Trump’s Cuts to Domestic Agencies (BBG)
  • House Republicans unveil 2018 budget with tax reform instructions (Reuters)

China's Ghost Recovery

"No matter how many times in the Western media they say demand is robust, catching up, or resilient, the Chinese know better...Economists called it “stimulus” and still do, but in truth it was actually the last option in maintaining the (recovery) lie."

John Mauldin Warns "Prepare For Turbulence"

"I’d love to be wrong. Nothing would make me happier than having to eat all these words. But without significant changes, and soon, the economy will drift sideways and down... Any outside shock – and several may be in the offing – could push us into recession."

All Conundrums Matter

"...the monetary history (including eurodollars) of the 21st century comes out very different than the monetary policy (eurodollars don’t matter) history of the same period. The latter leads to drug addicts and Baby Boomers as an eventual excuse for how QE and ZIRP performed about as well as monetary policy in 2001, 2002, and 2003. The former leads us to answers..."