The EU is facing an existential crisis and does not look like it will survive the massive political and financial challenges it is faced with. This has ramifications for investors in the EU itself and throughout the world.
European stocks declined for first session in five ahead of Wednesday's Dutch elections and Fed rate hike announcement. Fed concerns also dragged down Asian shares and S&P futures, while the dollar rose. Crude oil has ended its six-day drop. The pound tumbled 0.8% to the lowest since mid-January in a delayed reaction after Theresa May won permission to trigger the country’s departure from the EU.
"Instead of taking our pain in the short-term, we have sold future generations as debt slaves... The best that our leaders can do for now is to keep the bubble alive for as long as possible, because what comes after the bubble is gone will be absolutely unthinkable."
"China lowered its growth target again. As the World Bank warned that today’s strong global upswing in confidence and financial markets are not enough to pull the world out of a “low-growth trap.” If they’re right, we’re surely headed for depression."
European and Asian shares rise along with a jump in S&P futures which are pointing to a solidly green open on US payrolls day. The dollar, trading somewhat weaker against the euro was stronger against the yen, and was on track for its firth week of gains, while the rout in global Treasuries continued following a Mario Draghi conference that was interpreted as more hawkish than expected.
"Our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitro glycerin on a bumpy road. One mistake can set off a credit implosion where holders of stocks, high yield bonds, and yes, subprime mortgages all rush to the bank to claim its one and only dollar in the vault."
"Accelerated Fed rate hikes will cause tremors in the Treasury bond markets, forcing rates up, most especially in the 2 year – just like 1994. But as yet another central bank-inspired global recession unfolds, I believe US 10y bond yields will ultimately converge with Japanese and European yields well below zero"
"If you thought 2016 was weird, I suggest you get comfortable with the surreal because it is not going away anytime soon. 2017 is a veritable treasure trove of falling elevators... it seems to me that many of these events, stacked so closely together in the next few weeks, are not coincidental in their timing."
In his latest webcast to DoubleLine investors, Jeffrey Gundlach echoed Hartnett, when he said that he expects the Federal Reserve to begin a campaign of "old school" sequential interest rate hikes until "something breaks," such as a U.S. recession.
Although the market is convinced the Federal Reserve will get aggressive with their rate hikes, I am not sure market participants have thought this through. Let’s not forget the Federal Reserve is sitting on the largest balance sheet in history.