Global Economy

It's The Debt, Stupid - Massive Borrowing Binge Producing Fake Recovery

Taken together recent economic data paint a picture of a global economy that’s finally returning to the kind of solid growth and steady, positive inflation that most people consider both normal and good. Unfortunately, the reason for the improvement is emphatically not good: In 2016 the world borrowed a huge amount of money and spent the proceeds. The result is “growth,” but not sustainable growth.

Fiat Money, Fiat News

Gresham’s Law: bad money drives good money out of circulation.

Hunt’s Law: fake news drives real news out of circulation.

It's The "Most Volatile" Year For Political Risk Since World War II

"In 2017 we enter a period of geopolitical recession," warns Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer, adding that international war or "the breakdown of major central government institutions" isn't inevitable, though "such an outcome is now thinkable." In the company's 19th annual outlook, Eurasia fears that U.S. unilateralism under Donald Trump, China’s growing assertiveness and a weakened German Chancellor Angela Merkel will make 2017 the "most volatile" year for political risk since World War II.

Trump Picks China Critic Robert Lighthizer As US Trade Representative

The Trump transition team announced that President-elect Donald Trump has named Robert Lighthizer as his U.S. Trade Representative. Lighthizer served as the deputy USTR under former President Ronald Reagan. His appointment is a further sign the incoming administration will take a tougher line on China.

2017 Starts Off With A Bang: US Futures, Oil Jump On Upbeat China Data; Europe Enters Bull Market

Rumors of the Trumpflation rally's death have been greatly exagerated, and not only is the Dow 20,000 back on the radar, following a 124 point surge in Dow futures, bringing the "key psychological level" back within 100 points, but European stocks rose for a third day and entered a bull market, rising 20% from theor lows set last February, following strong Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data.

JPM: "Central Banks Have Created Unprecedented Distortions In Government Bond Markets"

"The biggest experiment in central bank history ($11 trillion and counting as of November 2016) helped employment recover in the US and UK, and more recently in Europe and Japan. Across all regions, however, too many of the benefits from this experiment accrued to holders of financial assets rather than to the average citizen. As a result, the political center of a slow-growth world has begun to erode."

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events..."

2016 Greatest Hits: Presenting The Most Popular Articles Of The Past Year

The eighth anniversary of Zero Hedge is just around the corner, and so, for the eighth year in a row we continue our tradition of summarizing what our readers found to be the most relevant, exciting, and actionable news of the year. We bring you the articles that you, dear reader, found to be the most interesting in the past 365 days.

Global Recession And Other Visions For 2017

"...the Fed’s efforts to ‘normalize’ interest rates will be tabled.  The economy simply can’t afford higher rates.  This isn’t Trump’s fault, of course.  He’s been handed a badly damaged economy. Quite frankly, there’s really no way to fix it.  Decades of economic degradation are irreversible." 

2016 Ended: Saying Goodbye To A Roller-Coaster Year

The importance of information grew exponentially and 2016 will be remembered as a year of information wars. No information sources are fully trusted anymore. Internet has become a battlefield where information wars are waged to influence large masses of people and a considerable number of world leaders.

3 Things: Records Are Records For A Reason

First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is the point at which previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.  The charts below suggest that current levels should be a sign of caution rather than exuberance.