Global Economy

Chinese Banks Begin To Raise Mortgage Rates

In the latest tightening in China's financial conditions, the China Securities Journal reports that some bank branches in Beijing, Guangzhou and Chongqing have raised mortgage rates for first-home buyers recently.

The End Of The Dollar Standard

"I find myself in the strange situation of cheering Donald Trump’s nascent program of economic renewal for the US, while worrying deeply about the domino effect that may topple a dollar-based global financial system whose health has relied greatly on benign neglect by the United States."

Spot The (Yield Curve) Difference

Something to keep in mind as "reflation", "recovery", "stimulus", and whatever else we can put between quotation marks comes up all over again...

Keystone XL Needs Much Higher Oil Prices To Be Viable

The Keystone XL Pipeline (KXL) is a bet on much higher oil prices several years from now. It will take at least $85 oil prices to develop the new oil sand projects needed to fill the pipeline. It is also a bet that U.S. tight oil output will continue to grow and will need heavy oil to blend for refining. Both bets are risky.

Carlson Capital: Border Adjustment Tax Would Lead To "Global Depression"

"If the border adjustment mechanism is implemented as proposed we think it will cause a global depression and a major equity market decline. It is still unclear whether it will happen but at the very least we expect that US trade policy will put downward pressure on global growth. When this becomes apparent commodities will correct meaningfully and we will reinvest in inflation beneficiaries."