Global Economy

Surging Bond Yields Signalling Pain Not Growth Ahead For US Economy

Government bond yields are surging not because growth will skyrocket in the US, but because they know that US debt under Trump will rise even faster than under Obama, reflecting the higher perceived risk of a potential default from considerably higher debt levels.

Seven Suggestions For President-Elect Trump

Dear President-Elect Trump, more policy tweaks, more promises of more government free money and more symbolic gestures won't fix anything. You must dig out the rot in our system of governance, destroy needless and burdensome state-cartel-imposed costs and encourage transparency, competition, accountability and locally based community-economy solutions.

"He Won Because The Elites Want Him There, The Global Economy Will Collapse"

"Though Trump’s election was a great victory/rebuke over the dictates and controls of the financial oligarchy that own and run this nation, the American people are not out of the woods yet... The system as we know it cannot be sustained. Yellen and co. have been simply waiting for the right time to let the other shoe drop... Unfortunately, Trump will now be largely blamed for the great destruction that is scheduled to fall upon this nation."

Everything Is Soaring As Trump Makes Buying Stuff Great Again

The global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all surging after the initial shock of Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy.  Commodity metals soared with copper surging the most since May 2013.

Stunned Global Markets Wake Up To President Trump

As it dawned on markets that they had been caught dead wrong for the second time in half a year, first with Brexit and then with the historic election of Donald Trump, their reaction was identical: a slow selloff at first, followed by a furious dump, which led to a limit down halt in NASDAQ and Emini future trading. However, turbulence calmed as investors reassessed the effects of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election.

GMO's Grantham Warns Of "Dismal Consequences" For Investors In A World Where Bubbles Don't Burst

"The market is unlikely to go “bang” in the way those bubbles did. It is far more likely that the mean reversion will be slow and incomplete. The consequences are dismal for investors: we are likely to limp into the setting sun with very low returns. For bubble historians, though, it is heartbreaking for there will be no histrionics, no chance of being a real hero. Not this time."

Now That The Presidential-Election Side Show Is Finally Ending...

Sadly, our self-serving Ruling Elite is only capable of resisting needed transformation by supporting a corrupt, sclerotic status quo. A new leadership class that actually understands the new mode of production may eventually emerge, but only after the corrupt, sclerotic status quo has deservedly collapsed under its own weight.

China Trade Data Disappoints (Again) Despite Plunging Yuan

Chinese imports have now declined for 23 of the last 24 months (falling 1.4% YoY in USD terms) and for 18 of the last 20 months, despite a devaluing yuan, exports have declined YoY (-7.3% YoY in October). In both USD and Yuan terms, trade data disappointed across the board suggesting a global economy that is far from as exuberant as recent PMIs suggest.

Protectionism Vs. Corruption: Which Is Worse For The Economy?

Support for Clinton suggests that many voters are willing to look the other way when a candidate looks to encourage even greater levels of rent seeking and influence-peddling in government. This could truly be crippling to an economy, and perhaps worse than Trump’s faulty positions on trade.

The Fallacy Of Central Planning (Exposed By South Park's Underpants Gnomes)

In the 1980s, the Fed decided that economists had learned sufficiently from the grave, global mistakes of the Great Inflation such that they would compensate for the evolution of money by controlling just a single interest rate. It was, essentially, an underpants gnome schematic: "1. Target federal funds rate. 2. .... 3. Control Economy."

For Crispen Odey The "Endgame" Arrives After Assets Plunge 60%

Assets under management at Crispin Odey’s flagship European hedge fund have plunged 60% this year after clients demanded their money back as the theta on his bearish bets burns, and as yet one more manager fought the central banks... and lost.

Citi: "A Clinton Presidency Will Be Marked By Near-Continuous Investigations, Impeachment Risk"

"Mr Trump ‎may be heading for defeat but the prevalence of low trust, identity politics and demographic divides across the developed world suggests that he will not be the last non-mainstream candidate to come close to power.  Moreover, a Clinton presidency is highly likely to be marked by near-continuous investigations as well as the risk of impeachment." - Citi