Global Economy

Futures, Global Stocks Rise As Oil, USDJPY Drops: All Eyes On The Jobs Report

With all eyes on today's jobs report, where consensus expects a 180K payrolls gain, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all rise amid a surge in government debt as markets digest the BOE's "kitchen sink" easing for a second day. But please don't overthink it. In deja vu fashion, Bloomberg summarizes the action simply as "stocks rose around the world on speculation central bank stimulus measures will support the global economy." We've heard that just a few times before.

The End Of A Trend: Oil Prices And Economic Growth

Far from a sign of good things for the economy as whole, recently declining oil prices now tend to indicate a weakening economy that was already in a weak state. It turns out that the oil price and the economy are now in a very tight relationship, and we are going to be seeing them together a lot for a long time to come.

The Stock Market's Big Lie: "I'll Take The Under"

One of the biggest “lies” in the financial world is that if you just invest your money in the markets over the long-term, you will average 7, 8 or 10% a year. Asset-gatherers don't give enough credence to the long-term effects of the “when” you start your investing cycle. The primary problem is that investors DO NOT have 100-years to invest BEFORE their disbursement cycle begins. Unfortunately, with stock valuations pushing the second highest level in history, forward return expectations (before inflation, taxes, and expenses) are extremely low.

5 Things To Focus On

Yeah, but apart from oil's failure to hold its gains, US earnings confirming their downtrend, extreme low levels of complacency in VIX, US banks decoupling from rates, and Japanese government bond implosions: everything is awesome...

A "Revolted" French President Lashes Out At Donald Trump: "His Excesses Are Sickening"

While over the past week Trump has hardly needed outside help to generate a spectacular dose of media scandals, overnight an unexpected attack came from none other than French socialist president Hollande expressed extreme revulsion at Donald Trump’s “excesses” in the U.S. presidential campaign and warned against the authoritarian tone adopted by the Republican nominee.

The End Of IMF Credibility (Or Why Christine Lagarde Should Be Fired... But Won't Be)

The IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) issued a report a few days ago entitled ‘The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal’. It is so damning for managing director Christine Lagarde and her closest associates, that it’s hard to see, certainly at first blush, how they could all keep their jobs. But don’t be surprised if that is exactly what will happen. Because organizations like the IMF don’t care much, if at all, about accountability. Their leaders think they are close to untouchable, at least as long as they have the ‘blessing’ of those whose interests they serve.

Trump Says It's Time To Sell Stocks, Warns Of "Very Scary Scenarios" For Investors

Now that we are exactly three months away from the November 8 election, if Trump wants to really boost his electoral chances, a market crash right now be certainly most welcome by his campaign. Which may be why Trump today urged his supporters to get out of equities as "interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are inflating the stock market" and warned of "very scary scenarios" for investors.

Ben Inker: This Is The "Shocking Hole" That Will Be Blown In Equities If Rates Spike By 1.5%

"The most shocking hole that will be blown through people’s portfolios is if discount rates rise again fairly quickly. Even if the circumstance is one in which the global economy is doing well, the impact of a 1.5% increase in the discount rate on equities from here is a fall of over 30%, which would almost certainly be enough to swamp the earnings impact of the decent growth."

Satyajit Das Slams Policymaker Ignorance: "QE-Forever Cycle" Means Catastrophe Is Inevitable

"Policymakers have chosen to ignore the central issue of debt as they try to resuscitate activity," warns Satyajit Das in a shocking Op-Ed in today's FT, and with global central banks now printing $180 billion a month (and growing), "the global economy may now be trapped in a QE-forever cycle," confirming von Mises prescription that "there is no means of avoiding the final collapse..."

Euro Stocks Reverse Early Gains Dragged Lower By Slumping Banks; US Futures Flat; Crude Slides

Following last Friday's shocking weak US GDP print, Asian stocks jumped to an 11 month high on reduced prospects of a near-term rate hike, while the region also digested mostly encouraging in conflicting Chinese PMI data. European bank stocks initially rose following the release of the 2016 stress test then declined, tempering gains in global equity indexes, amid investor skepticism over the usefulness of stress-test results and weaker oil prices.

Seven Places Where WW3 Could Start At Any Time

It seems like you can’t watch the news anymore without stumbling onto a story that contains terrifying global implications. Not since the Cold War have tensions been so high among the nations of the world. You can strike sparks just about anywhere. The threat of another global war is downright palpable.