Global Economy

The Ultimate 21st Century Choice: OBOR Or War

The G20 meets in tech hub Hangzhou, China, at an extremely tense geopolitical juncture. China has invested immense political/economic capital to prepare this summit. But most of all China will seek greater G20 backing for the New Silk Roads – or One Belt, One Road (OBOR), as they are officially known – as well as the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). However, the US hyperpower – not the Atlanticist West, because Europe is mired in fear and stagnation - “proposes” the current neocon/neoliberalcon status quo...

Art Berman: Oil Is Heading Lower Near-Term Before "Economically-Crippling Moon-Shot"

"We're in a cycle of lower prices for some time to come (months or even years) certainly until we work through the inventory overhang of 140 million barrels. There really no justification in history or logic for a return to oil prices of $60 or $70/bbl... But we're deferring investments in proven reserves... So, there is going to be a time, no matter how weak the economy is, no matter how much we can't change this, we're going to end up with insufficient to meet our most basic, fundamental transport and manufacturing needs. When that happens, we'll see a moon-shot in oil prices."

Negative Rates & The War On Cash, Part 1: "There Is Nowhere To Go But Down"

As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion. Credit bubbles are dynamic - they must grow continually or implode - hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence. As the peak of a credit bubble is reached, all these necessary factors first become problematic and then cease to be available at all. Past a certain point, there are hard limits to financial expansions, and the global economy is set to hit one imminently.

Magical Thinking

... the more we embrace and encourage state-directed magical thinking, whether it’s of the monetary or fiscal policy sort, what we are actually doing is opening the city gates to the old evil magic and the alt-priests of fascism and totalitarianism.

Q2 Earnings Review – Hockey Stick Hopes Remain

There is one commodity that Wall Street always has in abundance, “optimism.” When it comes to earnings expectations, estimates are always higher regardless of the trends of economic data. The problem is that the difference between expectations and reality have been quite dramatic.

Stunning Chart Shows That Central Bank Liquidity Is Now Driving All Asset Prices

If there is a reason why traders walk into their office every day in a state of zombified daze, no longer able to trade various asset classes based on fundamental data or incremental news flow, there is a simple reason for that: global central bank liquidity injections have never been greater, and as of this moment, have surpassed all previous post-financial crisis central bank intervention.

"All Eyes On Central Banks" In September, But "No Reason To Smile"

September will be quite a busy month for investors since there are around 30 major central banks meetings scheduled. Since the Bank of England’s last policy announcement, the total monthly amount in global official quantitative easing has reached almost $200 billion, which corresponds, for the purpose of comparison, to Portugal’s annual GDP in 2015. Long-rumoured and oft-discussed, QE infinity is now a reality.

The Central Banks Are Now Ready To Launch Their 'Brave New World'

What analysts out there need to understand, whether they are independent or mainstream, is that a great shift in central bank policy and attitude is coming. Christine Lagarde at the IMF calls it the “economic reset,” some Fed officials, like Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, state that central banks are entering a “brave new world.” These are highly loaded phrases that represent a drastic overhaul of the global financial system; an overhaul that is quite deliberate and inevitably destructive for certain nations and economies, including the U.S.

Michael Lewitt: "We're In The Late Stages of Ponzi Finance"

“They’ve tried to solve the debt crisis by printing trillions of dollars of more debt, and somehow they expect the economy to grow under the weight of those burdens. We’re just borrowing new money to pay back old money. I would say that we’re in the late stages of Ponzi finance.”

One Striking Chart Shows Why, According to MS, The Next Global Recession Begins In China

here is the chart revealing what may be the most unsustainable trend in China, one that is even more dramatic than China relentless debt growth: accounted for 26% of global annual capex in 2015, compared with 9% in 2006 and 5% in 2000. Hence, as China continues to invest with low return expectations, that this will continue to weigh on the global returns on capital employed.

The Number One Factor Influencing Fed Monetary Policy

In short, the economic model of the second half of the 20th century is over.  Increased issuances of debt no longer translate into increased economic growth.  Instead, they produce wild asset price swings, casino style speculation, and epic bubbles and busts.  Nonetheless, the technocrats continue offering up yesterday’s solutions with unabashed certainty.