Global Economy

Traxis Not Feeling Sucker Rally Love


And some deep thoughts from Barton Biggs on why it is different this time. The observation is actually not bad, although it does not justify the YTD performance:

Is Joseph Cassano Responsible For The Depression?

And people thought Jerome Kerviel's blow up was spectacular. In an interesting piece out on abcnews, more light is being shed on AIG's small financial products London office which even AIG now acknowledges was ground zero for roughly $500 billion in losses, as well as the person who ran it, Joseph Cassano.

Is Joseph Cassano Responsible For The Depression?

And people thought Jerome Kerviel's blow up was spectacular. In an interesting piece out on abcnews, more light is being shed on AIG's small financial products London office which even AIG now acknowledges was ground zero for roughly $500 billion in losses, as well as the person who ran it, Joseph Cassano.

FT Debunks Citi Memo

Good read on the purposefully leaked Citi memo today from Financial Times. The Brits make a good point about Citi's so called bumper revenues, which a) are not bumper at all based on historical standards and b) are to be expected as increased revenues always accompany volatile markets, especially in f/x and cash equities. The main thing Citi did not provide info on is the impact of writedowns, which one can bet their bottom dollar will be large to quite large.

Ukrainian Currency Plunges Despite Stern Government Warnings

As Mark Haines calls yet another market bottom (what 8.1% unemployment? Citi says absent all its losses it will make a profit) and bases his conclusion that "this one is really the one... it is a real big rally" on his gut, things elsewhere are getting ugly. Ukraine's hryvnia currency plunged today despite the central bank's warning to 17 lenders not to buy or sell the hryvnia for less than its set exchange rate.

The Road To Recovery

Goldman analysts today provide a very useful checklist to keep tabs of where we stand on the proverbial road out of hell. As GS says, its US economic forecast calls for stabilization by middle 2009, and after annualized declines of 7% and 3% for Q1 and Q2, the bank expects real GDP to inch up at a 1% rate over the second half of the year.

The Road To Recovery

Goldman analysts today provide a very useful checklist to keep tabs of where we stand on the proverbial road out of hell. As GS says, its US economic forecast calls for stabilization by middle 2009, and after annualized declines of 7% and 3% for Q1 and Q2, the bank expects real GDP to inch up at a 1% rate over the second half of the year.

The Road To Recovery

Goldman analysts today provide a very useful checklist to keep tabs of where we stand on the proverbial road out of hell. As GS says, its US economic forecast calls for stabilization by middle 2009, and after annualized declines of 7% and 3% for Q1 and Q2, the bank expects real GDP to inch up at a 1% rate over the second half of the year.

Daily Savage Thoughts

The equity market is down nearly 4% and its not stopping there so as we go into the close many see a test of S&P500 680 support with risks for a more dramatic flush. The race to the bottom in equities was again led by concerns about financials.

Overallotment: Daily Recap

To close the day we present two different opinions, first one a relatively downbeat one by Goldman, and the second one modestly optimistic by Mike O'Rourke... note Mike's discussion on Buffett CDS - he brings up a very critical point that is true for all companies that have technicals preventing a true indication of risk either at the equity or debt levels.

Also, check this out: some pessimism porn from a high up Russian guy.

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Could TALF Be The Biggest Disappointment Yet?

Many hopes and dreams reside with what so far has been the best accepted (at least by Wall Street's conventional wisdom) government program - the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, aka TALF, aka Prime Broker Of The People, By The People, For The People. But as we have seen before (TARP 1, TARP 2, Tim Geithner) it is usually only a matter of time before those who read (instead of just repeating the talking heads) scratch the surface and sniff between the lines.

The Deflationary Creep To A 10% Household Savings Rate

The rapid increase in consumer savings has become a major topic of contention, and could easily be the biggest headwind facing Obama's stimulus package, and the threat to reducing the near $2 trillion upcoming budget deficit.

The Deflationary Creep To A 10% Household Savings Rate

The rapid increase in consumer savings has become a major topic of contention, and could easily be the biggest headwind facing Obama's stimulus package, and the threat to reducing the near $2 trillion upcoming budget deficit.