Breaking a critical trendline (particularly one that has been in place for several decades) is one thing. Breaking it and then failing to reclaim it during the following bounce is indicative of BEAR MARKET.
There is “a barbarous relic” in our global monetary system. It is the U.S. dollar: the worthless, monetary relic of an empire in decline.
Once again we feel the close tug of systemic illiquidity as it transcends the usual noise about assurances to ignore or trivialize all this growing uncertainty. Even though stocks and other assets have been trading in their own world mostly free from all this more hidden esoterica, the full weight of this analysis suggests that can’t be more than a temporary deviation. Since it is the angle of economy that is ultimately driving all of this, everything depends upon a global economy that has already been beaten down far past anticipation.
Once again, the two major macroeconomic announcements over the weekend came from China, where we first saw an unexpected, if still to be confirmed, increase in FX reserves, and then Chinese trade data once again disappointed tumbling by 6.9% while imports plunged 18.8%. So how did the market react? The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a fourth day and reached its highest since August 20because more bad data means more easing from the PBOC, and just to give what few investors are left the green light to come back into the pool, overnight Chinese brokers soared after Chinese IPOs returned after a 5 month hiatus. Elsewhere, Stocks and currencies in emerging markets slump on prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs before year-end and after data underscored slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy. Euro strengthens.
Back in February 2013, the creater of the BRIC acronym, Goldman's Jim O'Neill retired, but not before some very (traditionally) optimistic words of parting, namely that there is "clear evidence things are doing better economically." Nearly three years later, things are not only not doing better economically, with the entire world now engaged in outright, or quasi QE (with helicopter money to follow as Adair Turner infamous warned) just to support global asset prices, but the very emerging markets that made up the BRICs, have devolved to a state of economic freefall. And nowhere is this more obvious than in Goldman's decision to pull the plug on the infamous fund that bears the name of Goldman's most bullish acronym in history.
According to the CEO of Maersk, the world's biggest container shipping company, "the world’s economy is growing at a slower pace than the International Monetary Fund and other large forecasters are predicting." Andersen adds that "we believe that global growth is slowing down. Trade is currently significantly weaker than it normally would be under the growth forecasts we see....we’re a little bit more pessimistic than most forecasters."
The most important question (which no one’s asking) that needs to be asked and addressed today is: With the Fed. all but signalling come heck or high-water – they’re raising in December. Do the global markets once again stand at the same ledge they did in early August? And if that is indeed so, the question that is self-evident is this: Are you now better equipped both psychologically, as well as strategically and tactically adroit to handle such gyrations? Or, have you focused on “fees” and “diversification” as expounded via today’s financial books with a tendency to just BTFD because it’s worked so well in the past regardless of forethought or angst?
The developing deflationary cycle stunting the world economy has arisen from the monumental harm that central bankers have already done, not from lack of sufficient vigor and boldness in attempting to contravene its consequences.
"Things are crazy," says Charles Biderman summing up this bizarre situation. "We’re seeing the impact of the global slowdown on the US and that’s going to continue" adds the TrimTabs founder, and, in contrast to the mainstream view on Wall Street, he doesn’t think that the Fed is going to raise interest rates (and is more likely to start a new stimulus program). "Ultimately there will be a major correction," he warns and any new stimulus will merely serve the drug-addicted market.
The latest small business survey from NFIB shows mounting pressures for small business resulting from limited pricing power and modestly rising wages (in fact the worst pressure since 2008's crash and 1999/2000's plunge). This has not ended well in the past...
The cries for going totally crazy are growing louder... the lunatics are running the asylum. One shouldn’t underestimate what they are capable of. The only consolation is that the day will come when the monetary cranks will be discredited again (for the umpteenth time). Thereafter it will presumably take a few decades before these ideas will rear their head again (like an especially sturdy weed, the idea that inflationism can promote prosperity seems nigh ineradicable in the long term – it always rises from the ashes again). The bad news is that many of us will probably still be around when the bill for these idiocies will be presented.
A Stunning Admission From A BOE Central Banker: This Is What The Coming "Helicopter Money" Will Look LikeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/06/2015 13:51 -0500
“Consider for example a tax cut for households and businesses that is explicitly coupled with incremental Bank of Japan purchases of government debt – so that the tax cut is in effect financed by money creation”
- Ben Bernanke, Some Thoughts on Monetary Policy in Japan, 2003
Until recently, the consensus assumed a strengthening of the global economy in 2016. It won’t happen. If the global economic growth manages to reach 3.1% next year, as forecast by the IMF, it will be a miracle. We are close to the end of the current economic cycle. The outbreak of a new global crisis in the coming years is inevitable. The Fed and other central banks are in a dead-end having fallen in the same trap as the Bank of Japan. If they increase rates too much, they will precipitate another financial crisis. It is impossible to stop the accommodative monetary policy.
"Real Output" is perhaps an even more accurate indication of the true state of the US domestic economy considering all the complaints by the Fed over the state of the global economy and eliminate the "noise" from trade which has been depressing GDP for quarters. Unfortunately, what the real output data reveals is not pretty. Rising by 2.3% Y/Y in Q3, this was not only down substantially from 3.4% in Q3 and 3.5% in Q1, but this was the weakest increase since Q1 2014! And then there are jobs...
Global Trade In Freefall: China Container Freight At Record Low; Rail Traffic Tumbles, Trucking Slows DownSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2015 17:42 -0500
Trucks, Trains and now Ships: suddenly everything seems to be in freefall.