Global Economy

Tyler Durden's picture

"We Will Have A Downturn", Dalio Warns, Return To QE Inevitable

"What scares me, or what worries me, is what the next downturn in the economy looks like, with asset prices where they are and a lesser ability of central banks to ease monetary policy."

GoldCore's picture

All Eyes On Fed - Myth Of All Powerful Central Banker Continues

We advise investors to fade out the short term noise emanating from the Fed today and from Janet Yellen and focus on the reality

Tyler Durden's picture

The Complete FOMC Cheat Sheet: All You Need To Know

The data, according to many analysts, have been broadly supportive, with stronger growth and a tightening in the labor market that should allow the Fed to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will gradually return to target. That said, heightened global risks could lead to a tactical delay. Economisseds remain evenly split on the prospect of the first rate increase in 9 years.

GoldCore's picture

Gold Up Before Federal Reserve – Myth Of All Powerful Central Bank Continues

The simple fact that the Fed is struggling to increase interest rates from near 0% after seven long years should give pause for concern. It underlines the vulnerability of the U.S. economy and means that another recession is very likely. Indeed, the huge levels of debt at all levels of U.S. society and the significant increase in global debt levels during the last seven years mean that another recession is almost certain.

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 17

  • Wall Street Has Doubts About Fed Lifting Interest Rates (WSJ)
  • Global stocks at three-week highs as Fed decision looms (Reuters)
  • Charting the Markets: The World Awaits the Fed (BBG)
  • Powerful quake off Chile slams waves into coastal towns; eight killed (Reuters)
  • As Fed Storm Brews, Europe Stocks Seen Weathering Turmoil Best (BBG)
  • Fiorina's rise adds another insurgent to U.S. election fray (Reuters)
Tyler Durden's picture

The Truly Stupid Case For More ZIRP

"Every day brings another reason why the Federal Reserve should hold off before raising interest rates... First and foremost there was the recent plunge in stock prices."

Tyler Durden's picture

The Shale Delusion: Why The Party’s Over For U.S. Tight Oil

The party is over for tight oil. Despite brash statements by U.S. producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies. Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oil prices as the world production surplus continues. EIA said that U.S. production will fall by 1 million barrels per day over the next year and that, “expected crude oil production declines from May 2015 through mid-2016 are largely attributable to unattractive economic returns.” IEA made the point more strongly. “..the latest price rout could stop US growth in its tracks.”

Tyler Durden's picture

Investors Paranoid That Other Investors Are Even More Paranoid

Let's hope Dr. Yellen has the right medication this Thursday to cure the paranoid investing world of its latest Fed-induced psychosis.

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Sachs - Perpetuator Of The Fed's Jihad Against Savers

One of these days, the people of main street will rediscover their torches and pitchforks. But until they do, Goldman has apparently invented still another ruse to keep the Fed doing Wall Street’s bidding, and to thereby keep its wretched jihad against savers fully in force.

Tyler Durden's picture

Citi Just Made "Global Recession In 2016" Its Base Case Scenario

48 hours - that's how long it took Citi's chief economist Willem Buiter to issue a report which was just as dire as Daiwa's, but because Citigroup is much more reliant on keeping it traditionally bullish clients as happy as possible, one had to read between the lines to get to the bottom line.  This is Citi's punchline: "A global recession starting in 2016, led by China is now our Global Economics team's main scenario. Uncertainty remains, but the likelihood of a timely and effective policy response seems to be diminishing."

Tyler Durden's picture

A Major Bank Just Made Global Financial "Meltdown" Its Base Case: "The Worst The World Has Ever Seen"

"Of all the possible risk scenarios the meltdown scenario is, realistically speaking, the most likely to occur. It is actually a more realistic outcome than the capital stock adjustment scenario. If China’s economy, the second largest in the world, twice the size of Japan’s, were to lapse into a meltdown situation such as this one, the effect would more than likely send the world economy into a tailspin. Its impact could be the worst the world has ever seen."

Tyler Durden's picture

China's Economy Continues To Crumble As Key Data Is Worst In 15 Years

China's global meltdown-inducing "adjustment" continues unabated as fixed asset investment is weakest since 2000.

Tyler Durden's picture

The 20-Year Stock Bubble - Its Origin In Wholesale Money

Faith in the QE world is waning everywhere and with very good reason. If the "wholesale money" eurodollar takeover was instead responsible for the serial asset bubbles of the past two decades, then it would make far more sense to extrapolate stock trends from that starting point rather than the irrelevant and overstated federal funds monkeying. In this context, the panic in 2008 makes perfect sense as it was a total failure of the eurodollar/wholesale system which not only reversed in total the prior bubble levels it crushed the global economy with it.

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