Global Economy

Tyler Durden's picture

What Rate Hike: US Economic Output Worst Since Q1 2014 With Jobs Now Rolling Over

"Real Output" is perhaps an even more accurate indication of the true state of the US domestic economy considering all the complaints by the Fed over the state of the global economy and eliminate the "noise" from trade which has been depressing GDP for quarters. Unfortunately, what the real output data reveals is not pretty. Rising by 2.3% Y/Y in Q3, this was not only down substantially from 3.4% in Q3 and 3.5% in Q1, but this was the weakest increase since Q1 2014! And then there are jobs...

Tyler Durden's picture

This Time Is The Same - And Worse!

The current stock market melt-up hardly qualifies as limp. Even the robo-machines and hyper-ventilating day traders apparently recognize that their job is to tag the May 2015 highs and then get out of the way. So when and as they complete their pointless mission, the question recurs as to why the posse of fools in the Eccles Building can’t see that they are inflating one hellacious financial bubble; and that when it blows it will deconstruct their entire 7-year project of make-pretend recovery.

GoldCore's picture

"Great Optimist" Faber Says "I Added To My Gold Position"

In an interview on CNBC's "Trading Nation," the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report editor revealed he may not be as bearish as some may think and that he is actually a “great optimist.”

Tyler Durden's picture

Hugh Hendry Says "Don't Panic"; Here Is Paul Singer Explaining Why You May Want To

"The "bailout culture" often coincides with sustained weak growth because, among other consequences, successful companies have to compete with companies who are alive only because of cheap credit. Overcapacity and inefficient production are engendered by such policies, causing price and profit declines. Failure is an essential element of capitalism, and if failure is politically denied, the most effective, efficient and innovative solutions cannot "win" over the "living dead" who clutter markets and consumer baskets."

Tyler Durden's picture

Hugh Hendry: "Today We Would Advise You That You Don't Panic!"

"It is ironic that we are perhaps best known for advising “that you panic”. However, if you are anxious at the wrong time it can prove very painful. Today, we would advise that you don’t panic!
... by withdrawing the “Greenspan put” and using their asset purchase schemes to eviscerate any notion of value, the authorities have paradoxically created a safer yet more paranoid market."

- Hugh Hendry

Tyler Durden's picture

The Truth Arrives: JPM Slams ZIRP - "It Has Been Impeding Rather Than Promoting Economic Recovery"

"zero interest rate policy actually reduces demand in the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to prescribe even further doses of a medicine that, for a long time, has been impeding rather than promoting economic recovery."

- JPM's David Kelly

Tyler Durden's picture

What The Oil And Gas Industry Is Not Telling Investors

There are very real threats to the business models of oil companies, threats that need to be explained to investors, according to a new report by Carbon Tracker. Right now, those threats are not being taken seriously.

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The World's Three Largest Economies Are in Recession

Anyone who thinks that somehow this will not impact the rest of the globe is out of his or her mind.

Tyler Durden's picture

Dan Loeb Now A Bear? "We Have More Single Short Names Than Long Positions In Our Book Today"

"... we have more single short names than long positions in our book today. We have reduced our net exposure by nearly a third through sales and new shorts over the past few months."

Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks, Symmetry, & A Significant Threat To The Global Economy

Central banks can’t afford a big correction to take place as it goes counter to their mandate, a stable growing economy, hence they interfere every single time a correction of size is about to unfold. And any threat to the global economy must be prevented. Now that fiscal year end mark-ups are over for many funds buyers have to prove how committed they are to driving markets higher. Price will ultimately confirm how this will play out, but altogether this chart is an amazing construct of symmetry and, as fans of structures and symmetry, it certainly has our attention. We can’t recall ever seeing such a precise structure.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Global Test Most Will Fail: Surviving The Bust That Inevitably Follows A Boom

Booms powered by credit, new markets and speculation are followed by busts as night follows day. This creates a very difficult test for every nation-state facing the inevitable bust: how does the leadership deal with the end of the boom? As the world is about to learn once again, the "fix" may make the next bust even more destructive.

Tyler Durden's picture

Did The PBOC Just Exacerbate China's Credit & Currency Peg Time Bomb?

China as the global Bubble’s focal point – the weak link yet, at the same time, the key marginal source of Bubble finance. China’s policy course appears to focus on two facets: to stabilize the yuan versus the dollar and to resuscitate Credit expansion. For better than two decades, similar policy courses were followed by myriad EM policymakers in hopes of sustaining financial and economic booms. Many cases ended in abject failure – often spectacularly. Why? Because when officials resort to such measures to sustain faltering Bubbles it generally works to only exacerbate systemic fragilities. For one, late-stage reflationary measures compound Credit system vulnerability while compounding structural impairment to the real economy. Secondly, central bank and banking system Credit-bolstering measures create liquidity that invariably feeds destabilizing “capital” and “hot money” outflows.

Tyler Durden's picture

'Lipstick'-ing The GDP Pig Amid An Epochal Global Deflationary Swoon

The talking heads were busy this week powdering the GDP pig. By averaging up the “disappointing” 1.5% gain for Q3 with the previous quarter they were able to pronounce that the economy is moving forward at an “encouraging” 2% clip. And once we get through this quarter’s big negative inventory adjustment, they insisted, we will be off to the ‘escape velocity’ races. Again. No we won’t! The global economy is in an epochal deflationary swoon and the US economy has already hit stall speed. It is only a matter of months before this long-in-the-tooth 75-month old business expansion will rollover into outright liquidation of excess inventories and hoarded labor. That is otherwise known as a recession.

Tyler Durden's picture

MOMO Rules: In A "World Of Disappointments" Trade Like An Idiot, Citi Recommends

In a "world of disappointments", where beta is king and where alpha has become a joke (or, now that equity is a risk-free asset and debt is risky, is outright punished) where growth no longer exists, drowning under the weight of $200 trillion in debt, and where value strategies have been all but forgotten replaced instead with "stories" about companies that have no cash flows but just might be "the next big thing" (one day), what should one to do? Why, engage in the most idiotic of strategies: chase momentum.

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