Global Economy

IMF Drops Pledge To "Resist All Forms Of Protectionism"

A communique from the IMF’s steering committee released on Saturday in Washington echoed the G-20 reversal, and said that officials “are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies" while omitting a call from its last statement in October to “resist all forms of protectionism."

David Stockman On The Anything President And The Everything Bubble

"The remaining bullishness and buy-the-dips robo-trading that temporarily sustained the dotcom bubble through March 2000 and the housing bubble through September 2008 will soon give way...  This century’s third great bubble’s days are numbered and in just a few digits."

The Best 'Unknown' Indicator

Even though investors have given up on the Trump reflation trade, this model has not. In fact, it has pushed up to new highs...

Is Trump About To Flip Again: Ryan Says "TTIP Good For Global Order"

From Obamacare to NATO, and from Ex-Im Bank to Chinese currency manipulators, President Trump has shown he is comfortable changing his mind 'bigly'. Today's exuberant support for "TTIP as good for global order," from Speaker Ryan, following VP Pence's meetings in Japan, raises questions about whether Trump's executive order withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement is the next big flip-flop.

Goldman: "Investors Are Increasingly Concerned About An S&P Drawdown"

One day after covering its long-standing long dollar call (coincidentally, just one week after former Goldman COO Gary Cohn urged Trump to flip on his own "strong dollar" policy), Goldman has gotten even more cautious and in a note released this morning it warns that "Investors are increasingly concerned about an S&P drawdown." Here's why.

UBS: "The Current Market Configuration Is The Opposite Of February 2016"

Soft data momentum has been strong for some time, pulling expectations higher too. The change in global data surprises has reached levels it typically mean-reverts from. In the meantime, market volatility across all assets has declined sharply. This configuration, the opposite of that in Feb 2016, warns us against adding risk aggressively now.