“They need Iran to avoid overreliance on Saudi Arabia, and they need Saudi Arabia to avoid overreliance on Iran. It’s all about diversifying risk. It’s less about picking winners and more about modern portfolio theory."
Call it whatever you like,blame whoever you want...but Houston,we have a problem....
One place where not even the IMF can in good conscience predict a hockeystick-like rebound in growth, is China, where the IMF now expects GDP to grow only 6.3% in 2016, dropping to an even lower 6.0% in 2017.
Investors have yet to realize this because it runs completely contrary to their faith in Central Banks. The illusion of Central Banking omnipotence is so great, that it is going to take months for the world to begin to digest what happened last week.
“I think ageing demographics is a bigger issue in China than people think. And the problems it creates should be become evident as early as 2016.” – Stan Druckenmiller, 2013
Over the last 5 years the various Fed QE (quantitative easing) interventions into the capital markets has facilitated dumb luck trading into “genius” status, and no clue analysis into “spot on brilliant” prognostications. The real issue at hand is many believed their own press, and the current state of egg on their face would make many a Denny's blush. As bad as that sounds – it gets worse.
Earlier today, Art Cashin summarized most (very desperate) traders' thoughts when he said that as a result of today's market crash, "the Fed will try anything" to prop up the wealth effect it had so carefully engineered with seven years of central planning in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Yet one person who is far less sanguine abou the latest in a long series of central bank bailouts of the stock market is Macro-Allocation's Paul Brodsky, who believes that instead of the Fed Put, the time of the Fed Call has come.
Following a comprehensive review of China's housing market, we now realize it's much worse than the consensus understands.
- Advanced training in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, or other related fields
- Extensive programming experience with strong object oriented design skills and fluency in C, C++, or Java
- Expertise with algorithms and data structures
- Demonstrated ability to communicate complex ideas in a clear, concise fashion
- Ability to thrive in a complex, fast-paced, and highly technical environment
- Islamic State launches militant assault on Indonesia's capital (Reuters)
- Three winners emerge in $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot (Reuters)
- European Stocks Tumble, Credit Markets Weaken on Growth Concern (BBG)
- Stocks and commodity currencies floored by new oil plunge (Reuters)
- China Bear Market Looms as PBOC Fails to Stop Flight to Safety (BBG)
- Anxious phone calls, tense moments before Iran's Supreme Leader okayed U.S. sailors' release (Reuters)
We’re experiencing wealth-destruction due to asset-price dynamics alone. The negative moves will stop only when excess leverage is trimmed and not just when prices return to “fair value.”
"Oil goes below $40, it’s frightening for geopolitical behavior. Guess what, folks? It’s below $40 and this frightening political behavior is upon us.... We could be looking at a really ugly situation during the first quarter of 2016... I think we're going to take out the September low of the S&P500."
After two months of sharp currency devaluation, the market was carefully watching last night's China trade data to see if the Yuan debasement had led to a positive trade outcome to the world's second largest economy, and as reported last night, it was not disappointed when China reported a December trade surplus of $60.09 billion from $54.1 billion in November, as a result of exports beating expectations and rising 2.3%, the first increase since June, while imports declined by just 4%, the smallest drop since 2014 despite China importing a record amount of oil, or 33.2 million tons, in December.
As the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out below, it is clear that the 'Epocalypse' - encompassing the roots "economic, epoch, collapse" and "apocalypse" - is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun. What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt.