Global Economy

China 'Rescues' Bond Market In Symbolic Move But Yield Curve Remains Inverted

For the 10th day in a row, China's bond yield curve remains inverted (the longest in history). However, in a very symbolic move overnight, China's Ministry of Finance bought 1.26 billion yuan of 1-year bonds for the first time in history via the secondary market. While yields tumbled on the rescue attempt, the curve remains inverted...

What Is The Market Telling Us?

The entire global economy now depends on this stripped-of-information "market" for its stability...It's difficult to see this as healthy or sustainable.

The Illusion Of Declining Debt To Income Ratios

Despite the mainstream media’s belief that surging asset prices, driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary interventions, has provided a boost to the overall economy, it has really been anything but.. the story remains the same – “if you are wealthy – life is good.”

When Will The Fed Tighten Enough To Cause The Next Recession?

In trying to answer "When will the Fed tighten enough to cause the next recession", Deutsche Bank says that while current market expectations suggest the next recession (or at least the next Fed tightening that would be forceful enough to cause a recession) could still be many years away, the bank "thinks this is too optimistic." Here's why

The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles?

"...even more egregious than the misinformation is the complete inappropriateness for the media to praise economic 'strength' while ignoring the role of debt in bringing about the growth being celebrated. If the 'prosperity' is simply due to a drunken debt-binge, it should be criticized, not lauded."

A New Chinese Threat Emerges: Net Bond Issuance Crashes Most On Record

China just suffered a record collapse in net corporate bond financing, the latest and far more "tangible" threat to China's debt-fuelled economy. In May a quarter trillion yuan in corporate bonds matured, or were repaid, or defaulted, resulting in the biggest corporate debt drain in history.

Frontrunning: June 14

  • Federal Reserve Expected to Deliver Rate Increase (WSJ)
  • Fire engulfs London tower block, at least six dead, more than 50 injured (Reuters)
  • Children lost, baby thrown to safety (Reuters)
  • Democrats Accuse Sessions of ‘Stonewalling’ (BBG)
  • World stocks march on as Fed rate hike looms, dollar steady (Reuters)

A Record Number Of Market Participants Says The Market Is Overvalued, Surpassing 1999 Bubble Highs

The latest monthly Fund Managers (FMS) survey from Bank of America is out, and continuing the trend noted in previous months when the number of active managers who said that stocks are overvalued hit the highest in nearly two decades, the latest version reveals that the number of respondents saying that equities are overvalued has just hit a record high, surpassing the all time high set during the 1999 bubble.

RBC Is "Astounded" By The Magnitude Of This Rotation

This is "classic 'shorts outperforming your longs' stuff," notes RBC's head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott, as he warns Friday's VaR-shock is a worst-case scenario against a backdrop where post-financial-crisis highs in 'net' and 'gross' exposures are currently deployed by the majority of equity hedge funds. However, he does offer a silver-lining for stock dip-buyers (and what to watch for).