Global Economy

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This Simply Does Not Compute: If Caterpillar Data Is Right, The Industrial Depression Has Never Been Worse

Something simply does not compute when looking at the latest CAT retail sales data. 

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Is This The Debt Jubilee?

The two concepts - NIRP and deficits - dovetail in a fairly terrifying way: All the new debt we take on to rekindle growth will have to be refinanced in the future. So the more we borrow now the more we’ll have to roll over then — and the bigger the impact on government budgets of an eventual rate normalization. Unless the ultimate plan is to never raise rates to old-school positive levels, in which case the world of the future is so different from that of the past that we may as well toss existing theories of market dynamics and individual freedom out the window.

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WTI Crude Slides Back Into Red For 2016 As The Fed And Oil Remain On Unsustainable Paths

WTI Crude has given up all its early morning "see oil is fixed" gains in a hurry as once again the algo ramps give way to the realization that, as OilPrice's Leonard Brecken notes, comes even as for all intents and purposes OPEC has nearly reached its production limits and Iran still plans in increasing output.

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What Happens To The Market Next: JPMorgan's Head Quant Explains

"In the next week, we could see some downward pressure as the impact of option hedging is reversed. Historically, we have found that the market develops positive momentum during the 3rd week of the month (when there is a call imbalance), and this often reverses during the 4th week of the month."

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Stockman Slams "Simple Janet"'s Incoherent Babble

We now have an absolutely clear idea of why the Fed is impaled on its own petard. At the end of the day, managed rates will prove to be the ultimate destroyer of capitalism. They transform financial markets from organizers and allocators of real capital and the savings of producers and workers into gambling casinos which fuel massive speculative bubbles.

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Increasingly Inefficient Bubbles - "The Liquidations In August & January Are Just The Start"

The wealth effect was meant as another of Keynes’ proposed “pump priming” methods, but it, too, has failed to materialize like the others (redistribution). If valuations are to return to a more considered level, economically speaking, the liquidations in August and January would be just the start.

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Bank of America: "The Impact Of A Very Dovish Message Is Bad For Risk Assets"

In a note that may have been quite prescient, BofA's HY strategist Michael Contopoulos released a note last night titled "Fed acknowledges global growth concerns… again", in which he said that "we have to admit; today’s dovish comments by Yellen took us by surprise" and adds that "although the market’s initial reaction was positive, we think the longer run impact of a very dovish message is bad for risk assets. In fact, we’re a bit amazed by the initial response from high yield today."

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Here Is What Janet Yellen Answered When Steve Liesman Asked If The Fed "Has A Credibility Problem"

Santelli: Steve, could you understand any of it? Any of it seriously? Just a yes or no.
Liesman: Not much, it was not precisely responsive to the question i asked.

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We Need The Pain That Comes With More Saving

Propping up the markets and encouraging misguided consumption and malinvestments will be the death blow to western civilization. Only near-term pain can allow long-term growth. Economic savings are the cure, and to be welcomed with open arms.

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The Fed Decision Explained In 1 Simple Chart

Tumbling US unemployment and surging US inflation is not what really matters to 'Global' Janet. She knows what happened the last time "market" expectations were so disclocatedly bullish relative to "economic" expectations... and doesn't want to be driving the current bus off the great-er depression cliff...

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All Eyes On Yellen: Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Meeting Expected To Usher In More Rate Hikes

Today Janet Yellen and the FOMC will go back to square one and try to reset global expectations unleashed by the ill-fated December rate "policy mistake" hike, when at 2pm the Fed will announce assessment of the economy, even if not rate hike is expected today. Just like in December the Fed will be forced to telegraph that it is hiking rates as a signal of a strengthening US, and global, economy where "risks are balanced" and hope that the subsequent global reaction will not be a rerun of what happened in January and February when confusion about the Fed's intentions led to a global market rout.

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Grant Williams On Investing In Turbulent Times

Grant Williams shares some of the best investment strategies for navigating turbulent markets.

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Global Warming And Food Prices

Given that we all have to eat and that there are some concerning environmental developments out there, here’s an interesting question: has global warming led to higher or lower food prices (thus far)?

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What The Smart Money Is Most Worried About: This Is The Biggest "Tail Risk" Keeping Traders Up At Night

While cnd concerns of a US recession have receded dramatically in the past month, no doubt in response to the price action in the markets, which have seen a 200 point surge in the S&P and a 50% rebound in oil, and instead all eyes are on the Fed, where "quantitative failure" is now the top concern among 18% of those polled. 

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Why Oil Prices May Not Move Higher

The oil-price rally that began in mid-February will almost certainly collapse.

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