Global Economy

Nomura Warns "Do Not Underestimate The Global Contagion" From Brexit

In a nutshell, Nomura expects the global impact of the Brexit to be more through the financial, confidence and psychology channels than simply through trade. Their warning is to not underestimate the depth and reach of global financial market contagion, which seems to have increased since 2008.

Central Bankers Around The Globle Scramble To Defend Markets: BOE Pledges $345BN; ECB, Others Promise Liquidity

There was a reason why we warned readers two days ago that "The World's Central Bankers Are Gathering At The BIS' Basel Tower Ahead Of The Brexit Result": simply enough, it was to facilitate an immediate response when a worst-cased Brexit vote hit. And that is precisely what has happened today in the aftermath of the historic British decision to exit the EU.  It started, as one would expect, with Mark Carney who said the Bank of England is ready to pump billions of pounds into the financial system as he stands at the front line of Britain’s defense against a Brexit-provoked market crisis.

The World's Central Bankers Are Gathering At The BIS' Basel Tower Ahead Of The Brexit Result

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will be in Switzerland as the results are announced of the U.K.’s June 23 vote on whether to remain in the European Union.He won't be alone: Kuroda will be traveling from June 23 to June 28 to attend meetings of the Bank for International Settlements, where other central bankers also will gather, the BOJ said Wednesday.

Did Bank Of Japan's Kuroda Just "Capitulate" Too?

First it was The Fed's Janet Yellen coming "as close to capitulation on monetary policy's lack of efficacy," and now The Bank of Japan's Kuroda appears to have had an epiphany. In a stream of truth-filled consciousness unheard of for central planners, the governor admitted, among other things, that "monetary policy doesn't always turn out as expected," and that "many economists don't think financial markets always right," implying, of course, that he and his brethren know better. It appears that as central bank credibility collapses, so the central bankers themselves are having their own 'Greenspan'-moment when their life's work is finally proven entirely pointless.

Panicked Brits Rush To Buy Gold Bars, Stuff Them In Home Safes

Worried British savers are scrambling to buy gold bars and "stuffing them in safes at home, data suggests, as fears mount that a Brexit-induced financial meltdown could be just around the corner." The paper cites Google search data for the term "home safe" which is running 61% higher than the level at which it peaked in November 2008, the point of the financial crisis, and is now higher than at any point since. In other words, whether intended or not, locals are more terrified of the outcome of Thursday's vote than the near-collapse of the financial system in the aftermath of Lehmans' failure.

More Banker Layoffs: RBS To Cut Another 900 Jobs

Bank layoffs are now coming at a rapid pace in what is a clear sign of desperation by the firms to cut costs enough to keep shareholders happy as NIRP continues to hammer bank profits.

Frontrunning: June 21

  • Tiny Tilt in ‘Brexit’ Polls Roils Global Markets (WSJ)
  • Oil prices slip after rally as market turns cautious (Reuters)
  • What to Watch for in Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony (WSJ)
  • Cracks emerge in the European consensus on Russia (Reuters)
  • Iraqi forces retake two Falluja districts from Islamic State, push west (Reuters)

Morgan Stanley Asks If This Is Just A "1937 Redux"

"Premature tightening of macro policies means risks of a relapse. In 1936, the Fed doubled the reserve requirements for banks and the Treasury began to sterilise gold inflows, slowing the growth of high-powered money. Fiscal policy was tightened, with the fiscal deficit narrowing significantly from 5.1% of GDP in 1936 to 0.1% in 1938. The premature and sharp pace of tightening of policies led to a double-dip in the economy, resulting in a relapse into recession and deflation in 1938."