Global Economy

Tyler Durden's picture

How To Blow Up OPEC In Three Easy Steps





We’ve landed in the next phase of what arguably started in 2007, but what you could place back many years before that, an economic system based on the fantasy that is debt driven growth, inflated by a factor of a trillion, give or take a few zeros.  That system is in the process of dying. And the people who have tried to make you believe, and succeeded, that it would all be fine in the end, are now jockeying for position in the aftermath of the demise of a world built on debt.  And they are the same people who built that world, profited from it to an insane degree, and want to use those profits to hang on to power in a world that will be dramatically different from the one they called the shots in. And that doesn’t bode well; it tells us violent clashes will be on the horizon.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Defining Problem Of Our Times (In 1 Simple Chart)





Hyperinflation and hyper-deflation are just two different forms of the same phenomenon: credit collapse. Arguing which of the two forms will dominate is futile: it blurs the focus of inquiry and frustrates efforts to avoid disaster.”

 
GoldCore's picture

U.S. and UK Test Big Bank Collapse - Risk Of Bail-ins





Regulators from the U.S. and the UK are in a “war room” today conducting financial war games to see if they can cope with fall-out when the next big bank collapses. "We are going to make sure that we can handle an institution that previously would have been regarded as too big to fail. We're confident that we now have choices that did not exist in the past," Osborne said at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Saxobank CIO Warns "The Narrative Of Central Bank Omnipotence Is Failing"





We have been discussing the widespread belief in "the narrative of central bank omnipotence" for a number of months (here and here most recently) as we noted "there are no more skeptics. To update Milton Friedman’s famous quote, we are all Bernankians now." So when Saxobank's CIO and Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen warns that "the mood has changed," and feedback from conference calls and speaking engagements tells him, there is a growing belief that the 'narrative of the central banks' is failing, we sit up and listen.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Ebola And The Five Stages Of Collapse





At the moment, the Ebola virus is ravaging three countries - Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone - where it is doubling every few weeks, but singular cases and clusters of them are cropping up in dense population centers across the world. Ebola's mortality rate can be as high as 70%, but seems closer to 50% for the current major outbreak. This is significantly worse than the Bubonic plague, which killed off a third of Europe's population. Previous Ebola outbreaks occurred in rural, isolated locales, where they quickly burned themselves out by infecting everyone within a certain radius, then running out of new victims. But the current outbreak has spread to large population centers with highly mobile populations, and the chances of such a spontaneous end to this outbreak seem to be pretty much nil. The scenario in which Ebola engulfs the globe is not yet guaranteed, but neither can it be dismissed as some sort of apocalyptic fantasy: the chances of it happening are by no means zero.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Oil Weapon: A New Way To Wage War





It was heinous. It was underhanded. It was beyond the bounds of international morality. It was an attack on the American way of life. It was what you might expect from unscrupulous Arabs. It was “the oil weapon” -- and back in 1973, it was directed at the United States. Skip ahead four decades and it’s smart, it’s effective, and it’s the American way. The Obama administration has appropriated it as a major tool of foreign policy, a new way to go to war with nations it considers hostile without relying on planes, missiles, and troops.  It is, of course, that very same oil weapon.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

World's Busiest Freight Route Rates Plunge To 2014 Lows





Shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe - the world's busiest route - fell 10.2% to $738 per container in the week ended on Friday, according to Reuters. This is the 4th weekly drop in a row and is the lowest level since Oct 25th 2013. Confirming this global trade volume collapse, the Baltic Dry tumbled back below $1000, down 50% from a year ago, and is hovering once again at post-Lehman crisis lows. But apart from that, the global economy is doing great...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Financial Markets Are Artificially Priced: What Do You Do?" - Bill Gross' First Janus Capital Letter





Financial markets are artificially priced....  We have had our Biblical seven years of fat. We must look forward, almost by mathematical necessity, to seven figurative years of leaner: Bonds – 3% to 4% at best, stocks – 5% to 6% on the outside. That may not be enough for your retirement or your kid’s college education. It certainly isn’t for many private and public pension funds that still have a fairy tale belief in an average 7% to 8% return for the next 10 to 20 years! What do you do?

 
GoldCore's picture

Global Equity Shock as "Captured" System Starts to Crack





This week has seen some market volatility (see VIX Chart) reminiscent of the functioning market from days of old. The markets are spooked, bad news is overtaking good news and bearish views are becoming vogue. We are seeing a titanic battle taking place between the various bull and bear camps and they are starting to unleash some serious firepower. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Sea Of Red": US Futures Tumble, DJIA Red For The Year, DAX At One Year Low, Treasurys Under 2.30%





And just like that. everything is crashing. Whether it is Asia, Europe, or even US futures, an entire generation of traders are waking up to something few have seen in the past 6 years: a very rare sea of red only this time with the main difference that the perpetual backstop of all risk, the Fed and/or "Edward Quince", may not be there to halt the collapse.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Oil: More About Supply than the Dollar





Thesis:  Oil supply is where the pressure is coming from and the China-Russian oil deal has not undermined the dollar, but OPEC. 

 
GoldCore's picture

‘Helicopter Yellen’ Sends Stocks, Gold, Silver Soaring





Copious amounts of monetary whiskey have been downed in the global economy and yet the recovery remains weak at best. The mother of all monetary hangovers awaits us all and will likely manifest in stagflation and sharply higher inflation.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Stayin' Alive" Bill Gross Speaks In His First Janus Interview: Live Webcast





Curious how Bill Gross feels in his new digs at Janus Capital (aka old digs in Newport Beach)? Curious how much money he is managing now or how he will manage it? Curious why he has a band aid under his right eye? All should be revealed in the Janus Capital live webcast going on now.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Albert Edwards Asks If Bond Vol Can Surge As A Result Of Rising Bond Prices





In his latest note Albert brings up in his latest note titled '?Basket trade?' suggests "Sell everything and run for your lives” (which has nothing to do with Edwards being a correct permabear in a world in which the house of cards is kept standing day after day only thanks to over $10 trillion and rising in central bank liquidity, and everythning to do with this). The point is whether increasing volatility across all major asset classes (notably FX and increasingly so in equities) will finally spill over into bonds, but in an inverted way - one where unlike stocks where vol surges when prices crash, would see bond volatility soar as a result of matched surge in bond prices, something which as we showed earlier today is becoming an increasing concern as bond yields around most places in the world have tumbled to record lows.

 
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