Global Economy

IMF Chief Christine Lagarde Should Resign Immediately

Does being the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund mean never having to say sorry? As Christine Lagarde blunders on from one mishap to another with apparent insouciance, it would appear so.

As Gold Crashes, Gartman Has A Theory What Is Behind It

"Tuesday’s sell-off did look like liquidation rather than fundamentally warranted selling. This view is further supported by the fact that the open interest in the COMEX futures has fallen by more than 4% this week, suggestive strongly of forced liquidation and a throwing up of the hands… and of the stuff in one’s stomach."

Frontrunning: October 6

  • Millions flee as Southeast U.S. braces for Hurricane Matthew (Reuters)
  • Hurricane Matthew Is a $15 Billion Threat Headed to Florida (BBG)
  • Three Risks to the Global Financial System as Debt Hits Record Levels (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank’s $14 Billion Scare (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank Mismarked 37 Deals Like Paschi’s, Audit Says (BBG)
  • Monte Paschi Said to Plan Debt-Swap Deadline Before Italian Poll (BBG)

The Noose Is Tightening Quickly On The Global Economy

At bottom, it is not central bank stimulus and intervention alone that drives equities and bond markets; it is the naive faith and willful ignorance of average market participants.  There is a problem with this kind of economic model, however.  Reality is never kept in check indefinitely.  Fiscal truths will be exposed, one way or another.

BofA Says It Has Found Evidence Of An "Imminent Recession"

"In examining some of some of our favorite indicators’ recent trends, we did find evidence for an imminent recession. While the range of signals is wide, in aggregate they do suggest that, if data were to continue to weaken in line with the recent pace, history would point to a recession in the second half of 2017"

European, EM Stocks Slide On ECB Taper Concerns; US Futures Flat

With China on holiday, overnight sessions remain relatively quiet: at this moment, S&P500 futures are little changed as European stocks fall for first day in seven, on yesterday's concern that the ECB is moving toward tightening monetary policy; Asian indices rose slightly for third day. WTI climbs to $49.40, the highest since June 30 after yesterday's surprisingly large API crude draw report.

There Really Is Nothing Left To The Money Illusion

Japan’s economy continues to be the most obvious and clear evidence of the truth in that statement, but it no less applies everywhere the monetary illusion was once accepted without question. They really don’t know what they are doing, and in 2016 it so much harder to hide. 

"This Cannot End Well" Bill Gross Warns

"Central bankers have fostered a casino like atmosphere where savers/investors are presented with a Hobson's Choice, or perhaps a more damaging Sophie's Choice of participating (or not) in markets previously beyond prior imagination. Investors/savers are now scrappin' like mongrel dogs for tidbits of return at the zero bound. This cannot end well."

IMF Slashes US GDP Growth Outlook: Now Sees US Growing Only 1.6% In 2016

Having observed consensus economic growth expectations for the US tumble month after month, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF decided to once again play catch down from its over-optimistic +2.2% outlook in July to just 1.6% now  which still remains above consensus expectations of just 1.5% growth in 2016, pouring cold water on Obama's strategy to paint the economy as growing strongly.