Global Economy

Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Oil War

The days of global reliance on Chinese demand are soon coming to end as seen by the decline in growth rate, decline in imports, and increase in service sector strength. The implications have already been great as stock markets across the developed world fell into peril when China's GDP growth rate fell below 7 percent. Withdrawal symptoms may last for a while until a recovery in demand alleviates some pressure. But global financial markets will have to adjust to a developed China, and as this "new normal" sets in, it will mean softer demand for commodities. China’s slowing demand for oil will lead to heightened competition for suppliers. For now, it appears that OPEC’s loss is Russia’s gain.

Futures Flat Despite China Scare As Oil Rebounds Over $47

The main risk over the weekend was that markets, which have now dropped for three consecutive weeks the longest negative streak since January, would focus their attention on the latest batch of negative Chinese economic news released over the weekend, which missed expectations across the board, most prominently in Retail Sales and Industrial Production, and following Friday's disappointing new credit loan data, would sell off as the Chinese slowdown once again becomes a dominant concern. However, after some initial weakness, the risks were all but gone when first the USDJPY jumped on another round of deflationary Japanese economic data which led to renewed hopes of more BOJ easing and a jump in the USDJPY and thus US futures.

The Endgame

There is a growing fear in financial and monetary circles that there is something deeply wrong with the global economy. Publicly, officials and practitioners alike have become confused by policy failures, and privately, occasionally even downright pessimistic, at a loss to see a statist solution. It is hardly exaggerating to say there is a growing feeling of impending doom. In short, growing evidence of price inflation and stagnant production can be expected to materially increase the risk of a global banking and currency meltdown. The best escape-route is ownership of anything other than purely financial assets and fiat currency deposits. No wonder the price of gold, which is the soundest of moneys, appears to have entered a new bull market.

IceCap Asset Management: "The Trend Continues"

"As we continue to search the world for changes in trend, we must objectively report that there have been no changes to trends in economic growth. Around the world, growth continues to GRIND lower. Countries that were once high fliers, have now become low fliers. Countries that were once Steady-Eddies, have now become Wobbly Willies. And Countries that were once Nervous-Nancies have become Panicking Patty’s."

Waves Not Solid Cycles - Echoes Of 2008 Warrant Worries

The current rash of cautious ignorant optimism is so very reminiscent of the period right after Bear Stearns in 2008. Ben Bernanke as late as June 2008: "The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so." Janet Yellen said, “the strong incoming data on spending eased my fears that we are in or are approaching a recession regime” before expressing confidence in rate hikes starting in December 2008! The mainstream takes the absence of further liquidation as if there will be no more liquidations when in fact the likelihood of more of them only rises the more they are artificially “contained.”

US Army Shrinks To Smallest Since 1940 As Chinese Military Recruiting Accelerates

The Army’s latest headcount shows that nearly 2,600 soldiers departed active service in March without being replaced, an action that plunges manning to its lowest level since before World War II, according to ArmyTimes.com. This is occurring as The People's Liberation Army (incidentally the world's largest military force, with a strength of approximately 2,285,000 personnel, or 0.18% of China's population) has begun aggressively recruiting, and rattling its sabre increasingly loudly over US interference in the South China Sea island dispute and most recently in Hong Kong.

The Destabilizing Consequences Of Globalization

This globalization of price - for goods, services, credit and currencies - continually creates imbalances that fuel a perpetual instability that gradually impoverishes every sector other than global capital, which being mobile, can exploit the imbalances for its own profit. Who benefits over the longer term from the permanent instability and boom-and-bust cycles of this arrangement? Only those close to the credit spigots of central banks.

The Frogs Are Boiling Again - Why Wall Street Stays In The Pot

Wall Street’s cockeyed faith that another stock market bailout is on the way rests on the idea of a post-election return to fiscal stimulus - since even the casino punters now see that the jig is up on ZIRP, NIRP and QE. Here’s the problem. When General (Paul) Ryan gets together in the oval office with either Hillbama or the Donald next February the budget projections will already be deep in trillion dollar deficits under current policy. Therefore what will get stimulated, if anything, is a colossal political firestorm over who bankrupted the nation. There will not be another fiscal stimulus this go round. This time the frogs of Wall Street will be left to boil.

Full-Blown Fearmongering: Bank Of England Warns Of Recession, "Sharp" Sterling Fall If UK Leaves Europe

While the Bank of England voted unanimously 9-0 to keep rates on hold at 0.5%, what the market was far more focused on the BOE's latest gloomy scenarios about what would happen should the UK vote for Brexit on June 23. The BOE did not disappoint, and cautioned that that sterling could fall "sharply" and unemployment would probably rise, while in the press conference after the announcement BOE governor and former Goldmanite Mark Carney went all the way warning Brexit "could possibly lead to recession."

What Will The Global Economy Look Like After The "Great Reset"?

The globalist reset needs a trigger, a crisis which admittedly we do not have the ability to avoid. But, the reset also depends on the right people in place to rebuild the system after the crisis unfolds. Here is where the future can be determined. Whoever is left standing after the opening salvo will have a choice: to hide and hope for the best, or to fight for the position to choose who builds tomorrow. Will it be the psychotic globalist cabal, or will it be free people of conscience? It may not seem like it now, but the end result is up to us.

Central Banks And The Rise Of Extremism

Perhaps the world will have to wait it out to finally be graced with leaders who are willing to stand by their convictions and make hard, maybe even unpopular, choices. Such leaders might have to risk sacrificing everything political to be crowned the next true champions of conviction, giving us all a shot at a once again storied fate. Where does that leave us? Apparently angry. Very, very angry.

Why One Trader Thinks "There’s A Growing Belief That This Can’t End Peacefully"

"There’s a growing belief that this can’t end peacefully. And why more and more central banks are screaming about the negative externalities exported by those practicing the extremes of extraordinary monetary policy. We’ve learned that we exist in a global economy. What hasn’t been accepted, because the consequences may prove dire, is that we also are moving toward global monetary policy."

The Coming War Of Central Banks

History has shifted, and we're leaving the era of central bank convergence and entering the era of central bank divergence, i.e. open conflict.

China Stops Trying To Fool The World; World Is Sorry

China is the latest in a growing line of “command and control” economies that have risen to prominence, captured the imagination of people who find free markets too messy for comfort, and then blown up when it turns out that dictators have no idea how to allocate capital.