The current oil-price rally led many to believe that a full price recovery was underway. But inventories have been too large for that to happen short of epic supply interruptions. U.S. rig counts have surged as oil prices sink. Capital is driving the oil markets and it enables bad behavior by producers. That is why oil prices will stay low. The oil-price rally that began in February is over.
Of all the developed countries, Japan is in the worst condition economically. Most others, including the United States, are following the same path to insanity though. Unlike Japan, other countries may have time to implement policy changes that will allow them to avoid Japan’s desperate circumstances.
Despite the longest winning streak for US macro data in US history, Durable Goods Orders collapsed in June. The 4% MoM plunge (vs -1.4% exp) is the biggest drop since Aug 2014. This represents a 6.6% YoY crash - the biggest drop since July 2015. The drop appears driven by plunge in airplane orders (non-defense aircraft and parts). Worse still, core durable goods orders extended their annual declines to 18 months straight - the longest non-recessionary streak of declines in US history.
The markets were following a rollercoaster night for the Japanese Yen, when after several media headlines Abe was said to have announced a stimulus package that would be more than JPY28 trillion, sending Japanese stocks higher 1.7% while the USDJPY spiked but well off overnight highs, pushing risk assets higher. Europe and US futs were also in the green on optimism from AAPL's earnings, but all eyes will be on today's FOMC announcement.
“Prolonged stagnation, cultural upheavals and policy failures are combining to shake the balance between democratic legitimacy and global order...The candidacy of Mr. Trump is a result. Those who reject the chauvinist response must come forward with imaginative and ambitious ideas aimed at reestablishing that balance... Our civilization itself is at stake.”
"Europe, hot weather, riots, shootings and the political situation are not conducive to a healthy economy... Entry-level candidates cannot read or follow instructions. Most cannot do simple math problems. What is wrong with the educational system?"
if one looks only at trends revealed by CAT's retail sales the global economy has been mired not in a recession but an unprecedented depression, one which has now lasted some 43 months. That's how long CAT has gone without a single positive month in global retail sales, well over double the duration of the acute collapse in demand following the financial crisis.
There has been little notable market moves overnight, with the record rally in the S&P500 set to continue and European stocks climbing as German IFO business confidence proved more resilient than economists predicted in the month after Britain voted to leave the European Union, falling less than expected from 108.7 to 108.3, above the 107.5 consensus, with expectations printing at 102.2 above the 101.2 expected. Bonds fell with gold as the dollar gained before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week.
People are assuming there’s only one way to fight a war today of global proportions. We're not in that camp. We believe it will come monetarily – not military. At least at first. For once it takes place all bets are off as to what happens next.The obvious first mover advantage for China (and all its current allies) would be to use the rhetoric coming out of the current U.S. political arena, along with current, as well as proposed monetary policies via the Fed, ECB, and Japan.
Most investors today have no idea what is happening in the bond market today and have exposed themselves to incredible amounts of risk. Because a global crisis in the government bond market has never occurred in our lifetime – advisors, financial planners and big banks continue the tradition of telling their clients that bonds are safer than stocks. As a result, investors remain heavily invested in the bond market and are therefore smack dab in the middle of the riskiest investment they’ll ever see.
"So this is really the class war. And it's the class war of Wall Street and the corporate sector of the Democratic side against Trump on the populist side...Krugman has joined the ranks of the neocons, as well as the neoliberals, and they're terrified that they're losing control of the Republican Party. For the last half-century the Republican Party has been pro-Cold War, corporatist. And Trump has actually, is reversing that. Reversing the whole traditional platform. And that really worries the neocons..."
While the G-20 group traditionally tries to put on a united front, a curious divergence emerged following the latest meeting in China, where as Bloomberg notes Chinese and U.S. officials "showed signs of being at odds on how synchronized efforts to boost global growth need to be, with China stressing the need for improved coordination more than the U.S."U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew on Thursday talked down the need for crisis-level coordination as he headed to Chengdu, China, for the meeting.