Global Economy

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IMF Again Cuts Global Growth Forecast As It Warns Of "Secular Stagnation"





Moments ago the IMF did what it does better than anyone (with the exception of the Fed): it once again admitted its forecast of world growth had been too optimistic, and as a result in its just released quarterly World Economic Outlook report, it cut its forecast for 2016 global GDP growth from 3.4% to 3.2%, and from 3.6% to 3.5% for 2017. Indicatively, back in July 2014 the IMF was forecasting 4.0% GDP growth in 2016. It is now 20% lower.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Nomura Fires 1,000 As It Quits European Equity Business; Blames "Extreme Volatility And Lack Of Liquidity"





The latest confirmation of the pain global megabanks are suffering as a result of an abysmal trading environment, in no small part made even worse due to constant central bank tinkering, comes from Japan's largest brokerage, Nomura, which eight years after buying Lehman's European and Asian units has decided to fire 15% of its European staff and is abandoning most of its European equities business. Altogether, Nomura will fire about 1,000 bankers between its European and US groups.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China's Stealth Devaluation Continues Despite Lew Blasting "Unacceptable" FX Practices





"Intervention in foreign exchange markets in order to gain a competitive advantage is unacceptable," proclaims US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in a strongly worded statement today with regard America's position in the global economy. That we note this comment is only relevant as, despite the apparent "stability" of the Chinese Yuan against the USD, relative to the 13-currency-basket with which China primarily trades, the Yuan has collapsed to 17-month lows - with JPY and EUR appearing to bear the brunt of the pain.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Earnings Implosion Looms Amid The Illusion Of "Permanent Liquidity"





The problem with forward earnings estimates is that they consistently overestimate reality by roughly 33% historically. The illusion of“permanent liquidity,” and the belief of sustained economic growth, despite slowing in China, Japan, and the Eurozone, has emboldened analysts to continue push estimates of corporate profit growth higher. Even now, as the earnings recession deepens, hopes of a sharp rebound in profitability remains ebullient despite the lack of any signs of economic re-acceleration.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Obama Announces Unexpected Meeting With Yellen Following Tomorrow's "Expedited Procedures" Fed Meeting





"In the afternoon, the president will meet with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to discuss the state of the American and global economy, Wall Street reform, and the long-term economic outlook; the vice president will also attend."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Blackrock Turns Its Back On Japan Leaving Kuroda Scrambling





Things are going from bad to worse for the efficacy of the grand - and failed from the beginning - experiment known as Abenomics. As Bloomberg reports, Larry Fink's Blackrock has changed its stance on investing in Japan, and joins Citigroup, Credit Suisse, and LGT Capital Partners, the $50 billion asset manager based in Switzerland in their decision to head for the exits. Ironically, Blackrock's decision comes only a few months after blogging about "The Case for Investing in Japan", in which they explicitly cited increased demand for Japanese stocks.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Japan Says G-20 Accord Barring FX Devaluations Does Not "Rule Out Intervention" In The Yen





Earlier today, Japan's government spokesman Suga came as close as possible to admitting that there was in fact a tacit "Shanghai Accord" agreement when he said that the Group of 20's agreement to avoid competitive currency devaluation "does not mean Japan cannot intervene in response to one-sided currency moves." It got better: in an interview with Reuters Suga added that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's comment to the Wall Street Journal last week that countries should avoid "arbitrary intervention," was misunderstood and does not rule out intervention for Japan, Suga said.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: The U.S. Dollar - Return Of The King?





The US Dollar Index is sitting at 94.62, just above a critical support zone at 93-94. Meanwhile, the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has pulled back ~3.4% from its high on Jan20’16. It is hard to tell that long USD is a consensus trade because investors have lost their conviction.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Japan Needs A Stronger Dollar, China Wants A Weaker Dollar: The Fed Can't Please Both





The FX market is about to blow up in the Fed's face, and there's nothing they can do about it. What central banks fear most are markets that are not tightly controlled by central banks. The world's central banks are about to sit down to a banquet of consequences arising from seven long years of relentless manipulation.

 
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Guest Post - Path to the Great Reset





The rules of the game are changing. Those stuck within the old paradigm of mainstream finance face huge threats to their retirement....and quite possibly even their current standard of living.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here Is What Janet Yellen Answered When Asked If The U.S. Is In An "Economic Bubble"





"...we tried carefully to look at evidence of potential financial instability that might be brewing and some of the hallmarks of that, clearly overvalued asset prices, high leverage, rising leverage, and rapid credit growth. We certainly don’t see those imbalances. And so although interest rates are low, and that is something that could encourage reach for yield behavior, I wouldn’t describe this as a bubble economy."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Asia's Largest Clothing Retailer Plummets After Slashing Guidance By A Third; Blames Strong Yen





It didn't take long for the impact of the stronger yen, and the weak global economy, to manifest themselves on the company that is Asia largest clothing retailer.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Nomura's Bob "The Bear" Janjuah: "The Question Is What Would Be Necessary For The Fed To Do QE Or NIRP"





"My view is still that the Fed does not actually do anything more than jaw-bone until or unless the S&P500 cash index is into the 1500s and the outlook for growth, employment and inflation get significantly worse – perhaps with the unemployment rate inching higher not lower.... I am also even more convinced now that we are about 10 months through a multi-year bear market that likely won’t bottom until late 2017 or early 2018. This will be a stair-step decline with all the strength to the downside punctuated by occasional (very) violent bear market counter-trend rallies driven by short covering, hope and residual belief in policymakers"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Let Me Tell You About The Very Rich"





As the Panama Papers appear to show, the very wealthy play by an entirely different set of rules than the average person when it comes to paying taxes. The role of global banks has been a prominent feature of early reporting on the Panama files, reinforcing the impression of the entire sector as one big, risky rip-off machine, preying on consumers and governments to maximize profit. The scandal is only the latest in a series of almost countless ones, most of which were settled with fines and no admission of guilt. There is hardly a global financial market that has not been systematically manipulated by major Wall Street firms: interest rates, foreign exchange, metals, electricity — the list goes on.

 
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