Global Economy

Is Trump Winning?

"Mainstream analysis has been wrong for so long, why start believing it now?..."

Fannie, Freddie Would Need $100BN Bailout In New Financial Crisis

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would need as much as $100 billion in bailout funding in the form of a potential incremental Treasury draw, in the event of a new economic crisis which sends the S&P some 50% lower and results in a failoure of their largest counterparty.

Not All Capital Is Equal; Some Is Destructive

Hot money capital is not productive; it is destructive. The naive belief that all capital is a priori productive blinds us to the havoc wreaked by the financialization monster that has the global economy by the throat.

China's Minsky Moment Is Imminent

Everything you wanted to know about the looming bursting of the world's biggest credit bubble, but were afraid to ask...

Only Ten Years After The Last Financial Crisis the Banks Are At It Again

Banks have been lobbying heavily, expending significant amounts of money again, leaning on their Congressmen and pressuring regulators, saying that their capital standards need to be relaxed so that they can make more loans to stimulate economic growth. But that, according to the FDIC Vice-Chairman, is utter nonsense.

In Epic Letter, Elliott's Singer Rages Against Everything From Passive Investing To "Safe Spaces"

"...passive investing is in danger of devouring capitalism.  Government manipulation of securities prices has created the illusion that simply holding stocks and bonds in their index weights and sitting back arms folded is the perfect investment strategy.  What may have been a clever idea in its infancy has grown into a blob which is destructive to the growth-creating and consensus-building prospects of free-market capitalism."

Is Another Oil Head-Fake Coming?

"The global economy will quickly adjust to low oil prices, and decisions will be made to raise consumption based on those low prices... When oil inevitably spikes higher as supply is slashed and demand increases off the recessionary trough, everyone will be "surprised" that low prices didn't last... That's the oil head-fake in a nutshell."

Geopolitical Tensions Are Designed To Distract The Public From Economic Decline

"...there will come a time, probably sooner rather than later, when the piper will have to be paid and someone will have to take the blame for our fiscal non-recovery...I do not see the timing of heightened geopolitical tensions in 2017 as coincidental. It appears to me that these events are perfectly organized with maximum distraction in mind as we hit the top of perhaps the most massive stock and bond bubbles in modern history."

Dow Set To Open Above 22,000 As Global Stocks Levitate Higher

Welcome to August: you may be surprised to learn that S&P 500 futures are once again levitating, higher by 0.3%, and tracking European and Asian markets, with DJIA futures higher by over 100 points this morning, the Dow Jones is set to open above 22,000, a new all time high as Asian stocks hit a new decade high.

Here's The Real Reason The Fed Is Making Absurd Monetary Decisions

"There have always been lags between the time of a policy shift and evidence of that shift in the broader economy. However, in a heavily indebted economy, with the velocity of money likely falling further, and policy rates close to the zero bound, the Fed’s current capabilities are decidedly asymmetric."