Global Economy

A Common Central Bank Tool: Fearmongering

Central bankers should not be treated as wise oracles whose guidance is desperately needed. Instead, we should throw off the tyranny of the PhD’s and embrace the decentralization of power that is desperately needed to allow civilization to thrive. Brexit would be a great way to start.

In Furious Tirade, Citi Lashes Out At "Utterly Misguided" Central Bankers, Invokes Weimar Republic's Von Havenstein

"If ever there was a time to invoke the Havenstein experience, it is now.... We should be invoking Havenstein to identify the present flaw in institutional thinking around current monetary policy, specifically negative rates. In other words, the lesson here is that, unfortunately, people believed in the efficacy of a completely irrational policy because it was put in place by a qualified and experienced policymaker- this instead of questioning the common sense merit of its possible outcome."

Frontrunning: June 17

  • Sell-off abates as Brexit opinion seen shifting (Reuters)
  • IMF chief Lagarde says economic risks bigger if Britain leaves EU (Reuters)
  • U.S. State Department Officials Call for Strikes Against Syria’s Assad (WSJ)
  • St. Louis Fed's Bullard says U.S. may only need single rate hike for now (Reuters)
  • A Life of Violent Threats Paved Way for Orlando Attack (WSJ)

What The First 100 Days After Brexit Would Look Like

Before dawn on June 24, if an exit vote becomes clear, the EU’s top brass from Berlin to Brussels will be forced into damage control. In echoes of the Greek debt crisis, euro-area finance ministers may hold an emergency meeting as soon as that evening. Wild swings in the pound, more aggressive interventions by the Swiss National Bank and a ratcheting up of global instability rank as likely market reactions.

Violence Begets Violence: The Orlando Shootings And The War On Terror

We can rail against ISIS, hate crimes, terror threats, Islamic radicalization, gun control and national security. We can blame Muslims, lax gun laws, a homophobic culture and a toxic politic environmental. But until we start addressing the U.S. government’s part in creating, cultivating and abetting domestic and global terrorism - and hold agencies accountable for importing and exporting violence, breeding extremism and generating blowback, which then gets turned loose on an unsuspecting American populace - we’ll be no closer to putting an end to the violence than we were 15 years ago when nearly 3,000 individuals were killed on Sept. 11, 2001.

This Demographic Shift Makes Our Social Security Useless

The Obama administration was so convinced that the economy would fully recover on its own, it didn’t pay attention to the issue. This ignorance was a major mistake because demographics have fundamentally altered the dynamics of economic growth.

How Low Can Bond Yields Go? Lower

How low can bond yields go? Every day seems to provide fresh evidence that we really don’t know. But whatever your answer, between the gravitational pull of central bank debt purchases and a slowing global economy, the reality is: probably lower.

Big Names Are Bailing

The list of heavy hitters who are saying bad things about this world and its financial markets - while acting aggressively on their pessimism - is growing to alarming proportions.

Paul Singer Joins Icahn, Soros; Warns "It's A Very Dangerous Time To Be In The Market", Buys Gold

"The cure for the crisis — for the debt crisis, the financial crisis — has been deemed by the developed world governments to be more debt. There has not been a deleveraging. And after seven and a half years and counting of this mix of policies, at the moment we’re either in a stage of stagnation or rollover, possibly in the early stages of a global recession. So I think it’s a very dangerous time in the financial markets."

Nothing Lasts Forever

As the man who perhaps best rode the coat-tails of an ever-increasing wave of American credit expansion exceptionalism (only to come undone in recent times as that game ends), it is no surprise that Warren Buffett explained in February that "for 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start." We don't mean to rain on his parade too much, but the following charts suggest "nothing lasts forever" and time is ticking...