• GoldCore
    09/04/2015 - 07:43
    Large pools of gold in indebted nations will be vulnerable. Pool accounts, digital gold bullion vaulting providers and depositories in the UK and the US might have their companies and assets...

Global Economy

Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese "Bubble Trouble": Why UBS Thinks We're Only "Half Way Through"





The ongoing downshift in property construction will continue to undercut China's demand for commodities, raw materials and machinery, weigh on property as well as mining and industrial investment, and be a drag for overall GDP growth in 2016. The most direct and important channel through which this impact spreads is trade linkages, given China's role as the top exporter and second largest importer in the world.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Was Greece Set Up To Fail?





What have the bailouts achieved? Well, the Greek economy is doing worse than ever, and the people are poorer than ever; and both have a lot more bad ‘news’ to come. The bailouts needed to be as big as they were to 1) successfully make the international banks ‘whole’ that had lent as much as they had into the Greek economy, 2) get the IMF involved, 3) and absolve the notorious -and cooperative- domestic oligarchy from any pain. And make all the usual suspects a lot more money in the process. It therefore doesn’t look at all unlikely that Greece was saddled with an artificially raised deficit, and that the intention behind that, all along, was to get the Troika ‘inside’ for the long run. So the country could be stripped of all its assets.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: Beach Reading





While the markets have improved since the "resolution" of the Greek crisis, in my opinion we would have expected substantially more given the overall "angst" that the situation was generating. Yet, the market remains in a bearish consolidation pattern. Furthermore, relative strength, momentum and volume remain a detraction from the "bullishness" of this week's "crisis resolution rally."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Flat Ahead Of Greek Bridge Loan Approval





After weeks of overnight turbulence following every twist and turn in the Greek drama, this morning has seen a scarcity of mostly gap up (or NYSE-breakding "down") moves, and S&P500 futures are unchanged as of this moment however the Nasdaq is looking set for another record high at the open after last night's better than expected GOOG results which sent the stop higher by 11% of over $40 billion in market cap. We expect this not to last very long as the traditional no volume, USDJPY-levitation driven buying of ES will surely resume once US algos wake up and launch the self-trading spoof programs. More importantly: a red close on Friday is not exactly permitted by the central planners.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Likely Is Hyperinflation In The U.S?





Hyperinflation in the U.S. is coming sometime in the next 20 years or so, and this isn't a cry from a Chicken Little, but a conclusion that the analysis strongly suggests. It is possible hyperinflation could happen during the next few years, but that seems unlikely since it would require a series of major crises and political blunders – events unprecedented in the history of the United States. If this led to a corruption of Constitutional rights in the midst of an exaltation of the Executive Branch that resulted in loss of the rule of law, hyperinflation might result. It is much more probable that hyperinflation will be preceded by a long slow decline that will include a protracted period of high inflation, and that the crash of the dollar and hyperinflation will be the final tumble off a looming, steep cliff.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Greece And The Worst Possible Way To Correct Trade/Productivity Imbalances





Piling on more debt is the worst possible way to correct structural trade and productivity imbalances, yet that is the Eurozone's "solution" to Greece's debt/ trade/ productivity/ corruption crisis.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Is Yellen's Response When Asked If The Fed Is Too Worried About The Stock Market





"I would push back against the notion that we are unduly affected by the ups and downs of the stock market"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China-Led Bank Will "Keep America Honest," Provide Alternative To IMF, Nomura Says





"The AIIB may come to play an important role in keeping America honest. It is difficult to say at this point whether the AIIB will have a negative or a positive impact on the global economy. At the very least, however, the emergence of an international institution with a viewpoint different from that of western creditors will help enhance the quality of debate over emerging economies’ debt problems."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

When Capitalism Turns To Cannibalism





Yes, authentic capitalism still exists, but it's been relegated to the sideshow. The Big Tent with the Big Bucks is all finance/cartel/state/crony capitalism, and financialization is devouring all the other players. With authentic growth scarce, there's no other way to reap huge profits but cannibalism.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stock Plunge Resumes With 1200 Stocks Halted Limit Down; Yellen, Greek Elections On Deck





Just when the Chinese plunge protection team (and "arrest shortie" task force) seemed to be finally getting "malicious selling" under control, first we saw a crack yesterday when the composite broke the surge of the past three days as a result of yet another spike in margin debt funded purchases, but it was last night's reminder that "good news is bad news" that really confused the stock trading farmers and grandmas, which goalseeked Chinese economic "data" beat across the board, with Q2 GDP coming solidly above expectations at 7.0%, and retail sales and industrial production both beating, but in the process raising doubts that the PBOC will continue supporting stocks.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Beware: The "Made In China" Global Recession Is Coming, Morgan Stanley Warns





"Over the next couple of years, China is likely to be the biggest source of vulnerability for the global economy."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Small Business Optimism Crashes To 15 Month Lows





With all hopes and dreams of economic renaissance in America pinned on small businesses (see ADP's recent gains), today's data from the NFIB will strike fear in the heart of the wealth-effect-creating Fed. The NFIB small business optimism index disappointed expectations in June (94.1 vs. consensus 98.5), falling to its lowest level since March 2014 - the biggest drop since 2012. All components were weaker but most notably hiring and plans to raise worker compensation tumbled. Furthermore, Deloitte's Q2 latest survery shows American CFOs are more worried than at any time since 2013.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Is the Dollar Signaling Another 2008-Type Autumn is Coming?





The whole thing feels a bit like the summer of 2008 all over. Once again, the global economy is weakening, a significant crisis has erupted, and temporary solutions to said crisis are being hailed as a success.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Crony Capitalist Pretense Behind Warren Buffett's Banking Buys





When Warren Buffet put $5 billion in Berkshire Hathaway funds into Goldman Sachs the week after Lehman failed, amidst total turmoil and panic, it appeared from the outside a high risk bet. Buffet had long tried to portray himself as a folksy engine of traditional stability, investing only in things he could understand, so jumping into a wholesale run of chained liabilities may have seemed more than slightly out of character. We have no particular issue with Buffet making those investments, only the pretense of intentional mysticism that surrounds them. The reason the criticism of crony-capitalism sticks is because this was not Buffet's first intervention to "save" a famed institution on Wall Street. If Buffet's convention is to stick with "things you know" then he has been right there through the whole of the full-scale wholesale/eurodollar revolution.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Similarities Between China's Stock Market Crash And 1929 Are Eerie





For students of history, the China stock market crash looks eerily familiar. It’s playing out much like the Wall Street stock market crash of 1929. One of the factors fueling the soaring stock market of the 1920s was an influx of new, financially unsophisticated investors who saw the rising numbers and saw an opportunity for quick and easy profits. And that’s exactly what’s happened in China over the past year or so.

 
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