"They Blew It All On Hookers, Blow And Fancy Toys" – Hedgie Sees Lower Oil, Soaring Gold, & QE For The PeopleSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/07/2016 21:00 -0400
"...most people simply assumed the good times would go on forever... because it was different this time. But like any uninhibited party fueled by unlimited cash, the hangover was sure to follow."
When it comes to concerns about their professional future, few things faze Wall Streeters: mass layoffs - no big deal, someone else will hire; empty steakhouses - that's ok, Hustler Club is packed (and expense accounts are accepted just fine). But lower compensation and all hell breaks loose. Which is why quite a few hearts must have been pounding today when New York state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli released his annual Wall Street compensation report in which we revealed that average Wall Street bonuses for 2015 will drop by a quite substantial 9% to "only" $146,200, the second consecutive year of declines, and the lowest since 2012 when average bonuses were $142,860.
China never had an actual economic model or growth model. It simply printed an obscene amount of money, especially after 2008, and used it to build factories, 30-storey see-through apartment blocks and highways into nowhere cities, without giving much if any thought to where this would lead when their formerly rich western customers had less to spend on its ever increasing amount of ever more useless products. It was "to infinity and beyond" from the start, but that’s a line from a kids’ fantasy story, not a 5-year plan or an economic model.
Recently, for example, the markets took a tumble when the Fed moved to normalize monetary policy. The US central bank responded by delaying the normalization process, which stabilized the markets, but eventually fears of falling behind the curve on inflation will force it to resume the process. That will lead to renewed market turmoil in a cycle that has the potential to repeat itself endlessly.
“The Brazilian economic downturn took a real turn for the worse in February," according to Markit's Composite PMI, which collapsed to record lows at 39.0. Despite a slightly less bad than expected GDP print this morning (stil down a record 5.89% YoY), hope was quickly extinguished as PMIs showed economic activity continuing to contract at a record pace, job losses accelerating, and manufacturing's collapse accelerating. As Market sums up, "With the global economy also showing signs of slowing, which will impact on external demand, it looks as if the downturn is set to continue to run its course in the coming months."
"central bankers seem ever intent on going lower, ignorant in my view of the harm being done to a classical economic model that has driven prosperity – until it reached a negative interest rate dead end and could drive no more."
Donald Trump's emergence as the Republican frontrunner and possible future U.S. President is causing some gold and investment analysts to suggest diversifying into gold.
While warnings by former central bankers who are more responsible about the current global mess sound as nothing but revisionist bullshit. And yet, it was what King said today at the launch of his new book that left us surprised.As the Telegraph reports today, according to the former head of the Bank of England Europe's economic depression "is the result of "deliberate" policy choices made by EU elites.
While the market has had its share of bogeymen to worry about so far in 2016, mostly along the lines of the "Four Cs", namely China, Crude, Credit and Currencies, it has so far largely ignored one letter: the Big D, for Donald, as in how would a Trump presidency affect the market. And, as Reuters writes, it is time for Wall Street to add "the juggernaut that is Donald J. Trump to the list of what-ifs that is worrying Wall Street."
Zero Hedge NAILED It ...
Behold! The "wealth effect."