Gold prices closed on Obama's inauguration day at $857.25 per ounce. Exactly 12 months later on January 20th, 2010, gold had risen to $1,111.05/oz for a gain of nearly 30% in the first year after Obama’s inauguration.
"In our estimation the investment climate for risk assets after the election looks a lot like the environment before the election: risky. And while there are many valid reasons to cheer a change in tax policy, saving the U.S. and global economy from its past excesses is not one of them."
With all the partisan narrative defining Trump as a tariff-setting, anti-trade, economy-buster, we thought it ironic that free-trade-wunderkid Obama just escalated trade wars by bringing his administration's 16th trade-enforcement complaint against China with WTO, urging tariffs on subsidised Chinese aluminum, after accusing them of funneling artificially cheap loans from state-run banks to producers.
During his confirmation hearing as Trump's SecState, Rex Tillerson said a failure to respond to China had allowed it to “keep pushing the envelope” in the South China Sea and added that "we’re going to have to send China a clear signal that first the island-building stops and second your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed."
“The information is not true and is nothing other than a total fabrication,” Kremlin spokesman Peskov said, responding to allegations Moscow had a comrpomising report on Donald Trump. "You have to react to this with a certain humor, but there's also a sad side to this. Hysteria is being whipped up to maintain a political witch hunt."
"it does strike me that market moves – whether caused by an evil conjunction of rogue algorithims and Hi-Speed-Trading, or simple human foolishness – are becoming increasingly chaotic, thus raising the scale of crashes."
Global stocks were fractionally lower in early European trading, closed Asia mixed, while S&P futures were unchanged, as the dollar fell for a second day on concerns ahead of Trump's press conference on Wednesday. Oil rebounded after its Monday plunge, while commodity metals like iron ore rose limit up in Chinese trading.
If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation. Bitcoin is quite different from the USD but it, too, has unique characteristics that drive its demand and thus its valuation.
Taken together recent economic data paint a picture of a global economy that’s finally returning to the kind of solid growth and steady, positive inflation that most people consider both normal and good. Unfortunately, the reason for the improvement is emphatically not good: In 2016 the world borrowed a huge amount of money and spent the proceeds. The result is “growth,” but not sustainable growth.
"In 2017 we enter a period of geopolitical recession," warns Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer, adding that international war or "the breakdown of major central government institutions" isn't inevitable, though "such an outcome is now thinkable." In the company's 19th annual outlook, Eurasia fears that U.S. unilateralism under Donald Trump, China’s growing assertiveness and a weakened German Chancellor Angela Merkel will make 2017 the "most volatile" year for political risk since World War II.
"We’ve been in a decline for years. Our national debt has reached monstrous proportions. Even if Trump is able to pull off a miracle and turn things around, there will have to be drastic cuts for this to happen. Painful ones. People will suffer."