Global Warming

A big part of the reason that per capita CO2 emissions are higher in North America than in Europe is our urban structure--in particular the vast suburbs that surround most city centres. Big suburbs are only possible due to easy money. With no easy money, working families would not aspire to owning (alongside their bank) a huge home with a vast lawn and with neighbours within 5 m. Without easy money there wouldn't be two or three cars in the driveway... Governments like this model of city development - it gives people hope, which helps keep the system going. ... So having created the template for massive CO2 emissions, the authoritarians wish to deny responsibility and shift the blame to their debt-serfs. Because the debt-serfs are refusing to absorb the costs, the authoritarians decry their denial of science. Hence, if you really care about global warming, end the Fed.

With Tim Cook being fried on Capitol Hill, it is perhaps ironic that the issue of taxes is front-and-center in the European parliament today. However, as usual, the always-willing-to-tell-the-truth Nigel Farage points out the gross hypocrisy of a political elite calling for higher taxes (on the wealthy and more broadly in peripheral nations) when the reality is that the higher-ups in the European parliament have their marginal tax rates capped at 12%. Of course, none of that matters because stocks are rising and interest rates are falling; but perhaps the 60% of Greek youth or 57% of Spanish youth, as we discussed here, might be intrigued at the new normal idea of 'fair share' in Europe.

The Obama administration has come out in support of the idea of exporting U.S. natural gas. This stance is counterproductive and shortsighted, and if followed, it will prove harmful to domestic manufacturing (i.e., value generation) and to future generations of Americans. While exporting natural gas would certainly prove to be an economic boon for a very select minority of companies and individuals, it makes no sense from an energy standpoint and undermines our national interests. All it will do is enrich a few while boosting prices for all domestic consumers and shortchanging the energy and environmental inheritance we pass along to our children. The time has come to give greater weighting to energy matters than to economic and political desires. To continue to be energetically wasteful at this time in history, when so much data is telling us that the effluent of our activities is measurably altering our support systems, is beyond embarrassing.  It's tragic.

The last big thing was green tech, now a pileup of capital destruction.

Mitt Romney's net worth of $250 million is well-known by virtually everyone in America: after all, it was the primary campaign offensive used by the Obama team against his presidential challenger in an election run largely down wealth, and social class lines, and whom "Democrats targeted in ads and speeches as being out of touch with most Americans." What many may not know is that staunch democrat Al Gore's own personal wealth, has soared from virtually nothing in 1999 to a staggering $200 million according to an analysis conducted by Bloomberg.

• Turn to Religion Split Bomb Suspects' Home (WSJ)
• The propaganda is back for the 4th year in a row: Spring Swoon Sequel No Reason for Economic Growth Scare in U.S. (BBG)
• Bernanke Jackson Hole Absence Contrasts With Greenspan Adulation (BBG)
• Large economies promise to boost growth (FT)
• Tata Faces Crisis as $20 Billion Spent on Water (BBG)
• U.S. Eyes Pushback On China Hacking (WSJ)
• Fed's Bernanke sees no U.S. inflation risks: Nowotny (Reuters)
• Austerity on Trial With U.S. Versus Europe Amid New Evidence (BBG)
• Eurozone anti-austerity camp on the rise (FT)
• Spain Aims to Soften Budget Cuts (WSJ)
• Japan's Aso Calls Recovery 'Few Years' Away (WSJ)
• BOJ Said to Consider Price Forecast Upgrade (WSJ)

Rogoff-Reinhart's failure functionally legitimizes debt levels that are measured in multiples of GDP. I think they should be stripped of their credentials.

If You Don't Believe In Global Warming, Please Forward This to Your Friends Who Do

• Wal-Mart's Sales Problem—And America's (WSJ)
• Investors fret that Italy may undermine ECB backstop (Reuters)
• Monti Government Mulls Delaying Monte Paschi Bailout (BBG)
• Norway Faces Liquidity Shock in Record Redemption (BBG)
• ECB's Praet Says Accommodative Policy Could Lose Effectiveness (BBG)
• EU Chiefs Tell Italy There’s No Alternative to Austerity (BBG)
• New Spate of Acrimony in congress As Cuts Loom (WSJ)
• BOE's Tucker hints at radical growth moves (FT)
• Kuroda Seen Getting DPJ Vote for BOJ, Iwata May Be Opposed (BBG)
• Russian Banks Look to Yuan Bond Market (WSJ)
• Dagong warns about rising debt (China Daily)
• Italy Election Impasse Negative for Credit Rating, Moody’s Says (BBG)

In part one of this two part series – Hey You – we examined how an invisible government of wealthy, power hungry men have utilized the propaganda techniques of Edward Bernays and lured the American people into a narcissistic, techno-gadget, debt based servitude. Over the last one hundred years they have created a totalitarian state built upon egotism, material goods, and fulfilling our desires through Wall Street peddled debt and mass consumerism. It has been an incredibly effective form of control that has convinced the masses to love their servitude. The lyrics to Pink Floyd's 'Mother' had both a literal and figurative meaning for Roger Waters. Having seen his Wall Tour performance this past summer at Citizens Bank Park with a diverse crowd of 40,000, ranging in age from senior citizens to teenagers, it seems this song has gained new meaning. He sang a duet with himself from 1980 projected on the Wall and when he sang the lyric, “Mother, should I trust the government?” the entire stadium responded in unison – NO!!! This revealed a truth that is not permitted to be discussed by the corporate mainstream media acting as a mouthpiece for the ruling class. A growing legion of citizens in this country does not trust the government. This is very perceptive on their part.

Presenting Dave Collum's now ubiquitous and all-encompassing annual review of markets and much, much more. From Baptists, Bankers, and Bootleggers to Capitalism, Corporate Debt, Government Corruption, and the Constitution, Dave provides a one-stop-shop summary of everything relevant this year (and how it will affect next year and beyond).

Following on the heels of Byron Wien, Morgan Stanley's Surprises, and Saxo's Outrageous Predictions, Deutsche Bank's FX strategy team has created a who's who of 13 outliers for 2013. Quite frankly, given the extreme nature of monetary (and now fiscal) policy, asset allocation decisions, and bankers' and politicians' willingness to go into the media and lie directly to our faces, the comprehension of the possible (no matter how improbable) is far more important for risk management than the faith in the centrally-planned unreality our markets (and therefore ourselves) currently find themselves in. As they note, all too often, the tendency to not stray too far from a self-anchoring recent-history-extrapolated consensus (while apparently highly profitable for some for a microcosm of time) leads to unrecoverable drawdowns exactly when career-risk was the limiting factor. From Malaysian elections and EM bubbles bursting to Fed monetizing equities and South China Sea escalation, these outliers seem all to 'normal' in our brave new world.

The personal income and spending report Friday morning left a lot to be desired for those expecting a stronger economic environment soon.  However, the report fell well in line with what we have been expecting over the past several months as the drag on real wages and incomes have weighed on the consumer; and with personal consumption making up more the 70% of the economy, changes to employment, incomes or credit has an immediate and significant impact to growth. When it comes to the economy, and particularly the ongoing recession watch that has nearly become a sporting event, it is real (inflation adjusted) incomes that matter.  In the most recent report we see that real personal incomes declined for the month from $11,546 to $11,532 billion for the month reflecting a -.12 change. Economic expansion since the last recession has been hovering around a flat line for the past seven months. The next couple of months will be very telling about the strength of the underlying economy.  The manufacturing data continues to point to further economic weakness, hiring plans have deteriorated and the main drivers of economic growth have all stagnated. While we can hope to get lucky that things will work out for the best - "hope" rarely works out as an investment strategy.

As investors' and traders' attention spans diminish at ever-increasing speed, it is perhaps useful to step back and survey a landscape of global economic growth from a longer-term panorama in order to grasp the real trend and the real unusualness of our current environment. UBS' Art Cashin, while not 800 years old, reflects on such a long-term cycle providing some perspective on our belief that "economic growth be regarded as a continuous process that will persist forever," opining that perhaps, based on the study below (Is US Economic Growth Over?), we "could well be a unique episode in human history rather than a guarantee of endless future advance at the same rate." Of course, that would never fit with the current meme that growth is credit is life, but nevertheless well worth some introspection as we give thanks this week.

The people have spoken and President Obama will serve another four years presiding over the United States.  Furthermore, there is very little change to the makeup of the House and the Senate, which leaves the Administration in the same battle for control as it was prior to the election. The question now is what will the next four years look like economically? The amount of debt required today to create a single dollars' worth of GDP today is clearly unsustainable.  However, the current Administration has been increasing Federal debt at a run rate of more than $1.2 Trillion annually to date.  The understanding of the impact of increasing debt on economic growth is crucially important to understand.  Overall, the set up going forward looks like it has in the past couple of years.  It is unlikely that Obama will move to the center and be more of a politician with the best interest of the economy at heart.   It is also just as unlikely that the Republicans will back down and begin to cooperate with the Senate. However, the weight of evidence is stacked in favor of "more of the same" which means less for you and me.