Gold coin purchases gained 13% last year and will increase 2.7% in the first half. Purchases of gold bars increased by 36% to nearly 2,000 (1,194) metric tonnes, concentrated in China, Germany, Switzerland and Austria. East Asia demand for gold bars rose 53% to 456 metric tonnes. India rose 9% to 297 metric tonnes and western markets demand for gold bars rose 41% to 335 metric tonnes. Central banks increased net purchases by a massive fivefold to 430 tons last year, and may buy another 90 tons in the first half, GFMS said. Combined official holdings stand at 30,788.9 tons, data from the London-based World Gold Council show. “Attitudes among central banks haven’t really changed,” Thomson Reuters GFMS annual survey said. “There’s still that desire to come into the gold market to diversify some of the assets away from foreign exchange and to boost gold holdings.” The Thomson Reuters GFMS annual gold survey also predicts that gold will struggle in the first half of the year, increasing in the later half towards $2,000. It also says the gold bull market is losing steam and predicts an end to the run as economies recover next year and interest rates begin to rise.
If you ever happen to acquire an inclination for being the subject of disrepute and ridicule I highly recommend endorsing the conceit alluded to in the title. Apparently this issue is ‘so obvious’ that even gold bugs and government officials can reach common ground via the contention that I’m deluded. My folly — if you will — is to maintain that dollar debasement can be bullish for the dollar vis-à-vis other currencies at present. Since this long-standing conviction of ours is once again being corroborated by price action in the currency markets I thought I’d attempt to convince you that I’m not completely crazy. Here I outline why dollar debasement is bullish for the dollar against other fiat currencies in this environment.
Bill Buckler Discusses The Last Price Standing Of "True Money", Answers The Only Question Relevant To Gold BugsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/19/2010 18:27 -0400
Bill Buckler, publisher of The Privateer Report, has released one of the most scathing critiques of paper money we have read to date: "Before it can be exchanged, wealth must be created. Wealth cannot be created out of thin air. By definition, an economic good is “scarce”. If it were not, there would be no such thing as economics or exchange. Neither would be necessary because no effort or choice in the face of alternatives would be required in order to provide the GOODS which further our lives. Before we can talk about money and the VITAL role it performs, we must stress this point. Money is NOT wealth, it is the means by which wealth is exchanged amongst those who produce it. Paper money is not suited to this function." So what is the only rational investment in times in which money's role is so often confused by pretty much everyone? "Ninety-seven percent of all existing Treasury debt has been created since August 15, 1971! Ninety-three percent of it has been created since Mr Volcker “saved” the paper Dollar in late 1979! Please note that the gain in Treasuries and the loss in the US Dollar almost exactly cancel out. Please note also that even the biggest gain in these paper markets fades into insignificance against Gold’s rise."And here is the answer all the "gold bugs" have been waiting for: "The paper money “price” of Gold will last as long as the attempt to make paper money “work” lasts. In the end, Gold will no longer have a “price” because it has reverted to its role as MONEY. Whenever and wherever that happens, that nation can return to the production of wealth - rather than “money”."
Several weeks ago, a spoof xtranormal cartoon went viral, in which the purchasing sequence of an iPhone (as compared to an HTC Evo) was hyperbolized, and which ruthlessly mocked the brainwashing practices of the Apple Borg collective. It was only a matter of time, before the brain trust behind the lampoon decided to focus its attention on the next group that has been ridiculed since time immemorial: the long-suffering gold bugs. Sure enough, the sequel is now out, and the process of purchasing an iPhone is now downright boring compared to the purported thought process behind buying gold. Of course, the cartoon is quite hilarious, but for all the wrong reasons, as in trying to mock those who believe that on a short/medium enough timeline, the survival rate for paper drops to zero, the video, which is sure to go just as viral, in fact proves all the concerns not just of the faceless "goldbug" collective, but of all those others who believe gold is headed much, much higher, which also includes the richest and most prominent money managers, financiers, and politicians in the world.
Several observations out of Goldman's Investment Strategy Group which seek to allay fears that even if the Fed were to print another few trillion dollars, the greenback would still reign supreme, never mind that all the currency in circulation now (secondary Fed liability after excess reserves), one could argue, is more than 100% backed by MBS on the asset side of the equation (or in other words, diluted by more than half from solid, and real AAA-rated securities). Goldman is also taking a stab at gold-bugs, claiming that all reports of the dollar's demise are not only premature, but borne out undue fatalism, and in fact are deja vu. Yet is this time really not different?
In our latest piece (within a series of analyses that detail both the technical and fundamental landscapes of gold, silver, copper, oil, the CRB (Commodity Index), the US Dollar, the EURO and the remaining major currencies of the G8 in relation to one another), we at Fibozachi present an initial look into the technical composition of gold.