• rcwhalen
    11/25/2015 - 08:58
    "This is legal?" Stephanie Ruhle on CDS after watching "The Big Short" (Bloomberg TV) 


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Permabulls Whistling Past The Grave

The Fed was out in force yesterday peddling some pretty heavy-duty malarkey about the up-coming rate liftoff at the December meeting..."If we begin to raise interest rates, that’s a good thing." That’s not a bad thing." Goldman is putting out the final mullet call for this Bubble Cycle because it knows that this bull is dying; that insiders still have massive amounts of stock winnings to unload; and that the clock is fast running out. The expiring clock is evident in the S&P 500’s one-year round trip to nowhere. Despite the fact that the Fed has ponied-up a stick save at every single meeting this year, the market’s 27 separate efforts to rally have all failed for the simple reason that the jig is up.

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This Time Is The Same - And Worse!

The current stock market melt-up hardly qualifies as limp. Even the robo-machines and hyper-ventilating day traders apparently recognize that their job is to tag the May 2015 highs and then get out of the way. So when and as they complete their pointless mission, the question recurs as to why the posse of fools in the Eccles Building can’t see that they are inflating one hellacious financial bubble; and that when it blows it will deconstruct their entire 7-year project of make-pretend recovery.

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Einsteinian Insanity: US, Saudi Arabia Pledge To Provide More Guns, Ammo To Syrian Proxy Armies

You have to hand it to Washington. When it comes to foreign policy blunders, the US certainly isn’t afraid to double and triple down. With the West and its regional allies in full panic mode as the effort to bring about regime change in Syria continues to crumble under pressure from Russian airstrikes and Iranian ground forces, the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to step up their support for the various proxy armies battling to oust Bashar al-Assad.

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China's Red Capitalism Is The New Black Swan

From the bowels of Australia’s iron ore mines to the top of Dubai’s pointless 100 story office towers, the entire warp and woof of the global economy has been distorted and bloated by the central bank money printing spree of the last two decades, led by the red credit machines of Beijing. Everywhere economies have succumbed to over-building, over-consumption, over-financialization and endless dangerous, unstable speculation. Stated differently, China’s red capitalism is the new black swan. There is nothing rational, stable or sustainable about it.

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Chinese Officials Say "Unnecessary To Be Anxious" About Economy As Margin Debt Rises Most Since June Bubble Peak


As everyone opined on China's 'goldilocks' GDP data all day long, perhaps the biggest news this evening was US Treasury's softer stance towards China's currency 'manipulation', as we noted earlier, saying Yuan is merely "below appropriate medium-term valuation," and sure enough offshore Yuan has strengthened since the report. China's 'official' mouthpiece Xinhua told the people it is "unnecessary to be anxious about China's economic growth." And finally, for the 8th straight day, Chinese margin debt rose today to its highest in over a month. This is the longest stretch of releveraging in 4 months - since the peak of the bubble. "Will they never learn?"

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Now What: How Should One Trade In A World Where "Most Indicators Have Lost Their Informational Value"

A market which trades day to day on historic "whiplashes", record short squeezes, broken trendlines, and of course, $13 trillion in excess liquidity, got you shaking your head (and burning old Finance 101 textbooks)? Don't despair: here is Macquarie with a guide of how to trade in world where "most leading indicators have lost their informational value."

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Another Petro-State Throws In The Towel: The Last Nail In The Petrodollar Coffin

While record mainland deficits covered by the petroleum sector is nothing new in Norwegian budget history, on the contrary it is closer to the norm, the 2016 budget did raise some eyebrows. The other side of the ledger, the net inflow to the SWF from activities in the North Sea will, again according to budget, be lower than the required amount to cover the deficit. This has never happened before and is testimony of the sea change occurring in the world of petrodollar recycling. 

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"Risky Business": Companies Are Now Funding Share Buybacks By Selling Bonds To Other Companies

"This is a risky business. Can they get it wrong? Absolutely they can get it wrong."

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OECD Joins Chorus Of Global Confusion, Slashes Growth Forecasts As It Urges Rate Hike

The OECD is well aware of the possibility that a Fed hike could plunge emerging markets into chaos. Nevertheless, the time to hike is apprently now...

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A Sucker's Rally?

The markets are clearly sending the same warning signals that they always have. It is only a question of whether we are willing to listen, or allow our "greed" to keep us at the casino table hoping for one more "hot hand." One thing is for certain, if the market does muster a rally strong enough in the week's ahead to retest the previous bullish trend moving average, it could very well be a "sucker's rally."

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Frontrunning: August 28

  • Stock Halts Added to Monday’s Market Chaos (WSJ)
  • Fed Up Investors Yank Cash From Almost Everything Just Like 2008 (BBG)
  • Drop in Stock Futures Signal Halt to S&P 500's Relief Rally (BBG) - at least until the BOJ ramps USDJPY up again
  • Hacker Killed by Drone Was Islamic State’s ‘Secret Weapon’ (WSJ)
  • Greece's Syriza to win election but face setback, poll shows (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico Spends More Than $60 Million on Debt Restructuring (BBG)
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Yuan Strengthens Most Since March, China Unveils New Bailout Source After Rescue Fund Runs Out Of Fire-Power

Update: China readies new bailout mechanism - pooling CNY2 Trillion of Pension funds for "investment"

A busy night in AsiaPac before China even opens. Vietnam had a failed bond auction, Japanese data was mixed (retail sales good, household spending bad, CPI just right), Moody's downgrades China growth (surprise!), China re-blames US for global market rout, and then the big one hits - China's bailout fund needs more money (applies for more loans from banks) - in other words - The PBOC just got a margin call. China margin debt balance fell for 8th straight day (although the short-selling balance picked up to 1-week highs). China unveiled some economic reforms - lifting tax exemption and foreign real estate investment rules. PBOC fixesds the Yuan 0.15% stronger - most since March, but even with last night's epic intervention, SHCOMP looks set for its worst week since Lehman.

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The S&P's 13th Trip Thru 2,100 Since Feb 13th: Call It Monetary Rigor Mortis - The Bull Is Dead

The robo machines pushed their snouts through 2100 on the S&P index again yesterday. This was the 13th time since, well, February 13th that this line has been re-penetrated from below. But don’t call it an omen of bad luck; its more like monetary rigor mortis. The bull market is dead, but the robo-machines and talking heads of bubble vision just don’t know it yet.

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Deja Vu: The Return Of The 4-Horseman Of Tech

"Giddy up! The Four Horsemen of Tech", July 17, 2015 - "Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook -- helped push the Nasdaq to an all-time high Friday morning."

"Cramer's Four Horsemen Of Tech" - September 25, 2007 "Apple, Research in Motion, Google and Amazon.com are up 31% as a group since he recommended them back on June 6. Despite the market being down today, each of these four stocks hit new highs."

"The Four Horsemen Of The New Economy" - October 2, 2000 "More than any other collection of companies, Oracle, Sun Microsystems, EMC, and Cisco Systems represent the building blocks of Net business."

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Peter Schiff On The Big Picture: The Party's Ending

While the party in the 1990s ended badly, the festivities currently underway may end in outright disaster. The party-goers may not just awaken with hangovers, but with missing teeth, no memories, and Mike Tyson's tiger in their hotel room.

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