Goldilocks

Howard Marks: "So Much For The Experts"

"The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. While I take a dim view of forecasts, and especially of opinions presented as facts, I do believe there are such things as facts.  Unfortunately, however, the concept of 'facts' is among the casualties of the increasingly partisan environment.  Recently we have seen both the elevation in status of 'non-facts', as well as the tearing down of 'real facts'."

Will Investors Get 'Hustled' By The Pros In 2017?

If you think you’re hearing a wee bit of a mixed message emanating from households and businesses, you’re not losing your marbles. If the stars don’t align perfectly, if the sequel doesn’t best the original, smaller investors might want to wise up to the fact that they’re being hustled by the equivalent of professional gamblers.

Barron's Cover: "Get Ready For Dow 20,000"

With The Dow just one good day away from the nirvana of 20,000 - proving once and for all that the fiction-peddling naysayers are wrong about the US economy - Barron's unleashes its magazine cover curse to do all it can to end the party.

Multiple Jobholders Hit New All Time High As Part-Time Jobs Soar

A new warning has emerged when looking at the number of Multiple jobholders, or people who are forced to hold more than one job due to insufficient wages or for other reasons: when observed on an actual basis, the number of multiple jobholders just rose to 8.107 million, a new record high print for the 21st century.

Weekend Reading: Market Breaks Support, Time To Worry?

“The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.”

How Does It All End?

[T]he long run meets the present [where] systems that no longer pay their way exhaust their credit and go broke. The Breaking Point is a nonlinear departure on the road to nowhere. It occurs when collateral collapses, burying the public’s faith in fiat money and the institutions that create and regulate it.”

Fed's Labor Market Indicator Bounces Back At Fastest Pace Since 2015

Thanks to Friday's 'magnificent' goldilocks jobs print, The Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index (once Janet Yellen's favorite indicator... until it started to turn down... and now just "experimental") bounced back ftom its 6-months of declines to 1.0% rise - the best since Dec 2015.

Previewing The Payrolls Report: Watch Out For Short-End Fireworks

As the world awaits the next in the series of "most important jobs numbers ever," which has now been shown as only relevant to the degree by which it moves the S&P 500 higher (or god forbid lower), consensus expectations are for a goldilocks 180k gain in jobs and flat 4.9% unemployment rate. The market will be looking to see if the Fed's recent optimism surrounding labor market conditions (despite a collapse in their own LMCI) are justified and if the employment figures of July and August demonstrate a new trend in conjunction with June ahead of the September meeting... and of course the 'election adjustment'.