Goldilocks

BofA: "This Is The Key Risk-Off Signal" Ahead Of This Autumn's "Big Fall"

An imminent Aug/Sept "big fall" trade is plausible if poor politics shows up in consumer confidence, US high yield credit spreads gap toward 500bps; tech leadership reversal, and most importantly, if the US dollar rises despite lower UST yields and further drop in US presidential approval ratings.

How To Prepare For Another Market Face-Pounding

"...the late-1990s term Goldilocks is again being used to describe why the slow growth, low unemployment, economy is good for stocks. Apparently, if an economy is not-too-cold, but not-too-hot, stocks can go up lots and lots."

Beware The Ides Of October...

"We are are waiting for Mr. October to step up and knock the risk markets for a loop, however, resulting in a nice fall correction (pun intended).  We believe many factors will be converging  by then, including..."

Breaking Down The Bull Market Thesis

"Considering that forward estimates are generally overstated by 33% on average, the risk is high of disappointment... The risk for investors is “willful blindness” that builds when complacency reaches extremes. It is worth remembering that the bullish mantra we hear today is much the same as it was in both 1999 and 2007."

El-Erian Exposes The Upside And Downside Of Liquidity-Driven Markets

"The markets' overall sense of 'goldilocks' - not too hot, not too cold - explains much of the gap between buoyant stock indexes and lagging economic and policy fundamentals...What remains more elusive, however, is confidence that this will end up at an enjoyable destination."

SocGen's "Pretty Simple" Explanation Of Janet Yellen's Testimony

“It’s pretty simple.....don’t overcomplicate it...As long as US interest rates consolidate and fears about a move to well north of 2.5% remains in check, the positive tone in emerging markets that prevailed prior to mid-June should resume”.

SocGen Asks: "Is It Groundhog Day, Or Goldilocks And The Three Bears?"

"Weak productivity and weak real wage growth leave the economy in an endless winter of mediocrity, while solid employment growth without inflation is the ‘not to cold, not too warm’ mix that keeps the Fed normalising policy ever so slowly, equity indices marching ever higher and the economic cycle able to trundle on with no recession in sight."

Goldman Sachs On What Happens Next - Recession, War, Or Goldilocks

After several months of low volatility across assets since mid-2016, particularly in equities, markets were more volatile last week owing to fears of central bank tightening. Volatility picked up first in FX and rates, and then spilled over to equities. However, as Goldman notes, this might not be the end of the low vol regime yet.

The Fed's Third Mandate Is Official

"The FOMC wants stocks to stop rising, and they will keep raising rates until they stop... It is stunning that markets are not taking these words more seriously..."