Goldilocks

Signs Of Excess: Crowding & Innovation

It is not until very late in the “bull market” cycle that individuals return to the “casino.”  Of course, this is after a long period of being chastised by the mainstream media “for missing the rally” and admonishing advisors for not “beating the market.” Everyone should just buy an index fund because “this time is different” and there is an overwhelming perception that there is “no risk” of chasing “risk.”

An Open Letter To The Fed's William Dudley

"Let’s face it... The Fed can’t hold the financial order together much longer anyway. Why pretend you can with utter nonsense like crashing unemployment? It’s insulting...Your credibility’s shot..."

Prepare For A Surge In Volume: Russell Rebalance Day Is Here

Welcome to the one year anniversary of the Brexit vote. Welcome also to the annual Russell rebalance, traditionally one of the busiest trading days of the year: last year's rebalance helped propel a near record turnover of over 15 billion shares. In fact, in four of the last five years, reconstitution day ranked in the 10 busiest trading sessions.

A Record Number Of Market Participants Says The Market Is Overvalued, Surpassing 1999 Bubble Highs

The latest monthly Fund Managers (FMS) survey from Bank of America is out, and continuing the trend noted in previous months when the number of active managers who said that stocks are overvalued hit the highest in nearly two decades, the latest version reveals that the number of respondents saying that equities are overvalued has just hit a record high, surpassing the all time high set during the 1999 bubble.

RBC Warns Equity Markets Have Entered The 'FOMO' Stage

It’s risk-parity heaven right now, notes RBC's head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott, with global equities (developed and EM) AND fixed-income all continuing their torrid rallies, but McElligott warns this is a classic "from worst to first" PM-grabbing into a new "Fear Of Missing Out" stage of the equities-rally.

"The Western Status Quo Political System Is Collapsing Into 'Something Else'"

"...as the Western status quo political system collapses into Something Else, how is it possible that our capital markets are not similarly gripped by volatility and stress? What is responsible for breaking the transmission mechanism from political risk to market risk? I’ve got a macro answer and I’ve got a micro answer..."

RBC: Welcome To "The Insanity Loop"

"It's a classic 'pennies in front of a stream-roller' / 'negative skew' return profile - a Taleb distribution...The problem is….IT KEEPS WORKING, because market expectations for rates / curves / inflation expectations remain D.O.A., which perversely keeps the major global central banks 'reflexively easy'..."

Cudmore: "I’m Failing To See Why Dip-Buyers Aren’t Correct"

"U.S. equities are more likely to melt-up rather than melt-down in the short-term. Too many investors seem obsessed with the fact that U.S. stocks are "expensive" and "overvalued" when compared to historical metrics. I’m not disputing those statements. But when there’s an unprecedented amount of liquidity in global markets, then valuations at unprecedented levels don’t seem completely illogical."

Ray Dalio Goes Dr. Doom: "When The Next Downturn Comes, It’s Going To Be Bad"

"we fear that whatever the magnitude of the downturn that eventually comes, whenever it eventually comes, it will likely produce much greater social and political conflict than currently exists.  The idea of conflicts getting even worse in a downturn is scary.  When the next downturn comes, it’s probably going to be bad."

Fasanara Capital Explains How The "Fake Market" Works In One Chart

"‘Fake Markets’ are defined as markets where the magnitude and duration of artificial flows from global Central Banks or passive investment vehicles have managed to overwhelm and narcotize data-dependency and macro factors. A stuporous state of durable, un-volatile over-valuation, arrested activity, unconsciousness produced by the influence of artificial money flows... The higher it goes, the higher it can go, as more swathes of private investors are pulled in. The more violently it can subsequently bust."

The End Of Ultra-Easy Money?

Is this the end of stimulative monetary policy? Only until the Fed and the academicians realize their Goldilocks economy is sham and they have to double down to prevent another recession. Because stimulus is all they know how to do. And they reject completely the benefits of a healthy, healing, old-fashioned depression.