Goldman Sacks

Weekend Reading: Storm Warning

"... while mainstream analysts continue to point to the “number of companies beating estimates,” can I just remind you that it took estimates being DRAMATICALLY lowered in order to achieve that goal. In fact, for the end of 2017 estimates are more than $10 LOWER than where they began. After all, we live in a society where “everyone gets a trophy”, right?"

madhedgefundtrader's picture

A new interventionist, activist approach by governments towards the energy space. If the IEA’s strategy works, and prices stay down 10% over time, this would inject $300 billion into the world economy. Howls of leaked information and insider trading. . Traders may bet against the national interest, but now do so at their peril. This is the first real attempt by the consuming nations to eliminate the oil risk premium, estimated at up to $50 a barrel. Cutting Brent prices by a whacking great $30 a barrel. Is this QE3 in black?

madhedgefundtrader's picture

The stock market peaked last February, not on April 29, as the indexes are suggesting. The stock prices of the best run companies in the most profitable industries are rolling over like the Bismarck. The best case is that we are nearly three weeks into a 10% correction that will take us to the 200 day moving average for the (SPX) at 1,234. (AAPL), (GOOG), (GS), (FCX).

madhedgefundtrader's picture

The Muni Bond Myth

Claims that total defaults in the municipal bond market could reach $100 billion are vastly exaggerated. Teachers will starve, police and firemen will go on strike, and there will be rioting in the streets before a single interest payment is missed to bond holders. Defaults will rise, but it will be from two to only 20, not the hundreds that Whitney is forecasting. Have I seen This movie before?

Guest Post: Busting Out The Joint

I remember quite clearly walking home in 1990 after seeing “GoodFellas” and wondering why such obviously clever people as the gangsters portrayed in the movie would resort to crime to get ahead. Why not just apply that cunning to legitimate work, and make a legitimate living—even a legitimate profit. Now I know where all the gangsters went: They went to Wall Street.

asiablues's picture

Since the financial crisis last fall, currency markets have taken their cues mostly from stock markets. When stocks plunged in March of this year, investors rushed to the safety of U.S. government bonds, pushing the dollar index up to 89.62, the highest point this year. The value of the euro has risen by 79% in nine years since euro hit 0.84 in Oct. 2000. What's next for the U.S. Dollar, and its impact on the market?