The oil price collapse of 2014-2015 began one year ago this month (Figure 1). The world crossed a boundary in which prices are not only lower now but will probably remain lower for some time. It represents a phase change like when water turns into ice: the composition is the same as before but the physical state and governing laws are different. The market must balance before things get better and prices improve. That can only happen if production falls and demand increases. That will take time. The most likely case is that oil prices will decrease in the second half of 2015 and that financial distress to all oil producers will increase. The hope and expectation that the worst is over will fade as the new reality of prolonged low oil prices is reluctantly accepted.
Every quarter ConvergEx's Nick Colas reviews a raft of unusual and less examined datasets with an eye to refining and adding perspective to the more traditional macroeconomic analyses. This quarter’s assessment of everything from large pickup truck and firearms sales to Google search autofills for “I want to buy/sell” shows a U.S. economy that is reasonably strong but growing only very slowly. The chief areas of concern: Food Stamp participation is still very high at 45.6 million Americans (14% of the total population) and indicators like used car prices and large pickup sales are flat.
- EU in last-ditch bid to Greece, urges "yes" vote to bailout (Reuters)
- In? Out? In between? A Greek legal riddle for EU (Reuters)
- Tsipras Says EU Won’t Eject Greece as Cost ‘Immense’ (BBG)
- Empty Greek ATMs Force Tourists to Stiff Santorini Cabbies (BBG)
- Anti-austerity protests in Greece as bank shutdown bites (Reuters)
- Puerto Rico governor calls for bankruptcy; adviser says island 'insolvent' (Reuters)
- Puerto Rico Urges Concessions From Creditors (WSJ)
- Hilsenrath - For Fed to Delay Rate Hikes, Global Tumult Would Need to Infect U.S. (WSJ)
Eurocrats have spent untold billions of other people’s money to save face, just so they wouldn’t have to admit that Project “Make Everyone Germany” has failed. But what they never acknowledged was that no matter how much they extend and pretend, the disease will always reach its crisis. And this financial disease is going to slay the patient. History is very clear on this point: debt kills.
- China’s Stocks Enter Bear Market as Rate Cut Fails to Stop Rout (BBG)
- Stocks Tumble Around the World on Greek Crisis (WSJ)
- Some say back to the drachma for a Greek reboot (Reuters)
- Greece Imposes Capital Controls as Fears of Grexit Grow (BBG)
- Panic Sets in Among Hardy Hedge Fund Investors Remaining in Greece (NYT)
- Euro off Greece-driven lows after SNB intervenes (Reuters)
- Western Union to close in Greece for rest of week (Reuters)
- European banks, bonds shaken by Greek turmoil (Reuters)
With the ATMs running on empty and the banks set to be closed for a week, the German foreign office has some advice for anyone traveling to Greece...
Multiple “emergency” meetings have been scheduled for Sunday as EU officials scramble to figure out how best to deal with what is likely to be a turbulent week and to consider the impact a potential Grexit will have on the currency bloc, its member nations and institutions, and on the global financial system as a whole. Meanwhile, Germany assesses Grexit damage.
Greek PM Tsipras just delivered the biggest Friday night bomb in recent European history: he stunned the Troika and his peers in Europe with the biggest shocker of all - a referendum announcement, aka the Greek "nuclear option", something which cost his predecessor George Papandreou his job. At this point there is no turning back, and the Greeks - of which 80% want to stay in the Euro even as 80% want an end to austerity - will get to choose their own fate. Whatever choice they make, they will now only have only themselves to blame.
"Black Friday. China shares dive 7.4%... How much further will it fall after this massacre?"
"It's a do-or-die moment for all investors... If retail investors become skittish now, panic selling will continue next week."
Moments ago we learned that none other than that ultimate "arbiter" on all things moral and ethical, Apple itself, entered the fray with a decision to remove all Civil War games from its App Store! According to MacRumors, "Apple has removed seemingly all Civil War games from the App Store for displaying the Confederate Flag in "offensive and mean-spirited ways," our sister website TouchArcade has learned. Apple has sent a removal letter to affected developers to inform them that their app does not comply with Section 19.1 of the App Store Review Guidelines."
- Greece Handed New Terms as Tsipras Approaches Decision Time (BBG)
- As U.S. Probes $12.7 Trillion Treasury Market, Trader Talk Is a Good Place to Start (BBG)
- Signs Swedish QE Backfiring as Liquidity Evaporates (BBG)
- ECB approves ELA funding requested by Greece- banking source (Reuters)
- Greek Millennials Can't Find Work But Actually Want to Keep the Euro (BBG)
- Greek deal or not, the euro is now a different beast (Reuters)
- Promoter’s Arrest Sheds Light on Cynk’s $6 Billion Surge (BBG)
- The World's Biggest Economies Are About to Feel the Impact of China's Slowdown (BBG)
- Senate Clears Trade Bill’s Way to Passage (WSJ)
Time for the musicians to learn the lessons that the video guys in Hollywood learned from them...
- Greek PM optimistic on debt deal as banks bleed (Reuters)
- Greek central bank chief says banking system stable (Kathimerini)
- ECB Said to Confer on Emergency Greek Aid Amid Cash Flight (BBG)
- More tax "avoidance": Citigroup to shift European retail banking HQ to Dublin (Reuters)
- Florist's tip led police to Charleston shooting suspect (USAToday)
- Asian shares edge higher on Fed caution, China sell-off intensifies (Reuters)
- Toyota in damage control mode after American exec arrested (Reuters)
- Venezuela Oil Loans Go Awry for China (WSJ)
Both France and Belgium have moved to freeze Russian state assets on Thursday, prompting an angry response from Moscow and serving to further inflame tensions between Russia and Europe amid escalating violence in Ukraine and an increasingly aggressive stance towards the Kremlin on the part of Washington and NATO.
Believe it or not: GREECE AID TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL YR-END W/O IMF: DIE ZEIT
... NOT! GERMAN NEWSPAPER ZEIT REPORT ABOUT CONCESSIONS MADE TO GREECE BY CREDITORS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH REALITY, SUCH A PROPOSAL WOULD DEFINITELY NOT FLY - EU DIPLOMATS