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Where did all the bears go?  We cannot find more than one person willing to be outright bearish.  What is particularly strange is that the reasons most people are bullish seem to have little, if anything to do with fundamentals – either macro or micro.  The reason for being long that is closest to being “fundamental” is that Europe is muddling through.  We're not sure Europe is muddling through, but in any case, wasn’t the bullish case for US stocks that we were decoupling?  Conspicuously absent as a reason to be long is earnings. It seems as though everyone is reasonably long (though not fully committed), but thinks everyone else is underweight.  It really feels like the “consensus” is that everyone else is underweight so you better be long for when that money comes into the market. The conversations are far more bearish than the positioning.

GroupThink! GroupThink! GroupThink!

• IMF begging ECB for cash, ECB begging Germany for cash... all is well: Lagarde Says Europe Must Boost Firewall (WSJ)
• More rumors of inflation targeting: Bernanke near inflation target prize, but jobs a concern (Reuters)
• A Sears Wager Stings at Goldman (WSJ)
• Draghi Makes Euro Favorite for Most-Profitable Carry Trades With Rate Cuts (Bloomberg)
• Euro zone finance ministers to rule on Greek debt talks (Reuters)
• "Reserve Currency" - Iran Said to Seek Yen Oil Payments From India Amid Sanctions (Bloomberg)
• Hackers-for-Hire Are Easy to Find (WSJ)
• Florida’s Republican Primary Pits Romney Money Against Gingrich Momentum (Bloomberg)
• YouTube hits 4 billion daily video views (Reuters)
• Carnival CEO Lies Low After Wreck (WSJ)
• Fed Forecasts Could Awaken Treasurys (WSJ)

After months of increasingly aggressive shareholder activism, the long-standing co-CEOs (Balisillie and Lazaridis) of the struggling Blackberry maker have resigned as the former COO takes over as CEO and former-exchange executive takes over as chairperson.

• *RESEARCH IN MOTION CO-CEOS/CHAIRMEN QUIT POSTS :RIM CN, AAPL US
• *RIM NAMES BARBARA STYMIEST INDEPENDENT BOARD CHAIRMAN   :RIM CN
• *RESEARCH IN MOTION NAMES THORSTEN HEINS PRESIDENT, CEO

Research In Motion has clearly morphed into Activism-in-Motion as the Globe and Mail reports: "The catalyst for change appears to have been the entry of a new personality: reserved but revered investor Prem Watsa, the CEO of Fairfax Financial. Mr. Watsa, who has been called Canada’s Warren Buffett." While chatter appears to be that change-is-good, G&M go on to note, "Critics of the company’s performance may not be immediately impressed by a management shakeup that involves so little fresh blood." as the Playbook fiasco is fresh in many people's minds but perhaps new CEO's Heins view that "We are not at a point where we try to define a strategy, that’s done" will not hearten those looking for real change.

Three primaries, three different winners. There is little that can be said here except to add what we said before: the US gets just what it deserves. Follow the results live on the CNN webcast and the interactive Google chart.

And so following a massive groundswell of protest with the government's attempt to blatantly confiscate the First Amendment, SOPA quietly dies.

• Fed Holds Off for Now on Bond Buys  (Hilsenrath)
• Bonds Show Return of Crisis Once ECB Loans Expire (Bloomberg)
• Greek Debt Talks Enter Third Day After ‘Substantial’ Discussions (Bloomberg)
• Sharp clashes at Republican debate ahead of vote (Reuters)
• Lagarde Joins Warning on Fiscal Cuts Before Davos (Bloomberg)
• Investors exit big-name funds as stars fail to shine (Reuters)
• Payday lenders plead case to consumer agency (Reuters) - the EFSF included?
• EU Toughens Fiscal Pact Bowing to ECB Objections, Draft Shows (Bloomberg)
• Minister Urges Japan to Use Strong Yen (FT)
• China Eyes Pension Fund Boost for Stock Market (Reuters)
• China Manufacturing Contraction Boosts Case for Easing: Economy (Bloomberg)

GOOG, first on deck, swing, and a miss - Source

• GOOGLE 4Q ADJ. EPS $9.50, EST. $10.50
• GOOGLE 4Q REVENUE $10.58 BILLION, EST. $8.41
• GOOGLE 4Q COST-PER-CLICK DOWN ABOUT 8%

Beat on top line, miss on EPS - Margin Compression?

Next: MSFT - Source

• MICROSOFT 2Q REV. $20.89B, EST. $20.92B
• MICROSOFT 2Q EPS. $0.78, EST. $0.76
• MICROSOFT CORP BING U.S. MARKET SHARE, AT 15.1% UP 300 BPS Y/Y
• More layoffs: Microsoft is revising operating expense guidance downward to $28.5 billion to $28.9 billion for the full year ending June 30, 2012.

Beat on bottom, miss on top

Next: IBM - Source

• IBM 4Q REV. $29.49B, EST. $29.71B
• IBM 4Q OPER EPS: $4.71, EST. 4.62
• Full year 2012 Expectations: GAAP EPS of at least $14.16 and operating (non-GAAP) EPS of at least $14.85

Beat on bottom, miss on top

Next: INTC - Source

• INTEL 4Q REV. $13.89B, EST. $13.72B
• INTEL 4Q EPS 64C, EST. 61C
• INTEL SEES 1Q REV. $12.8B +/- $500M, EST. $12.76B

Beat on top and bottom.

• The Fed's HFT price manipulation code stolen? U.S. Charges Programmer With Stealing Code (Reuters)
• One million homeowners may get mortgage writedowns: U.S. (Reuters)
• In MF Global, JPMorgan again at center of a financial failure (Reuters)
• China's Money Rates Slump After PBOC Injects Money (Reuters)
• Athens closes in on bondholder pact (FT) - or not
• Hedge Funds May Sue Greece If Loss Forced (NYT)
• China Said to Weigh Easing Constraints on Banks as Growth Slows (Bloomberg) - But wasn't a rate cut already priced in on Monday?
• Obama Under Attack Over Keystone Rejection (FT)
• Chinese Economy Heads for Soft Landing in 2012 (China Daily) - don't really expect "China Daily" to tell you otherwise
• Brazil Cuts Interest Rates Further to 10.5% (FT)
• India to Launch $35bn of Public Investments (FT)

What's Happening with the web Censorship Bills?

It's on like Donkey Kong ...

• Jon Huntsman Will Leave Republican Presidential Race, Endorse Mitt Romney, Officials Say (WaPo)
• Dont laugh - Plosser: Fed Tightening Possible Before Mid-2013 (WSJ)
• Greece’s Creditors Seek End To Deadlock (FT)
• France Can Overcome Crisis With Reforms – Sarkozy (Reuters)
• Nowotny Says S&P Favors Fed’s Bond Buying Over ECB’s ‘Restrictive’ Policy (Bloomberg)
• Bomb material found in Thailand after terror warnings (Reuters)
• Ma Victory Seen Boosting Taiwan Markets as Baer Considers Upgrading Stocks (Bloomberg)
• Japan Key Orders Jump; Policymakers Fret over Euro (Reuters)
• Renminbi Deal Aims to Boost City Trade (FT)

Just like in the US, where we had our very own Treasury Secretary telling us there is "no risk" the US would get downgraded, about 3 months before America did in fact get downgraded, the cognitive dissonance between reality and fantasy is fully exposed today, this time in Europe. And whereas patriotic chauvinism has its good and bad sides, listening to politicians explain away how the impossible has just happened is always very amusing. Especially when translated by Google. Such as in this case, where we have grabbed the following article from Les Echos and dumped it into the modern version of the babel fish.

• Europe’s $39T Pension Threat Grows as Economy Sputters (Bloomberg)
• Monti Warns of Italy Protests as He Meets Merkel (Bloomberg)
• Bernanke Doubling Down on Housing Bet Asks Government to Help: Mortgages (Bloomberg)
• Europe Banks Resist Draghi Bid to Avoid Crunch by Hoarding Cash (Bloomberg)
• Europe Fears Rising Greek Cost (WSJ)
• ECB’s Nowotny Sees Risk of Mild Recession in Euro Region (Bloomberg)
• Republican Senators Criticize Fed Recommendations on Housing (Bloomberg)
• Spanish Banks Try to Build Their Way Out of Home Glut (WSJ)
• Europe Stocks Fluctuate After German Auction (Bloomberg)

A big win for Google is the begining of a painful trend for MSFT.