Google

The NBER tried to pull a fast one on America a few weeks back when out of the blue it concluded that the recession ended in June 2009. Alas, Google Trends shows otherwise. The attached chart demonstrates the average use of the terms "food stamps", "I need a job", "unemployment claim" and "government assistance" via google trends. Either Americans are really clueless and are completely unable to get the memo that it is now all clear to spend, spend, spend, or the BLS, as John Lohman has suggested, aka the US version of the Ministry of Truth has infiltrated the corpulent and proud NBER Ph.D.s flagbearers.

Eric Schmidt, Google CEO, claims that Android is making money and envisions a potential $10 billion market. However, despite the impressive Android number, keep in mind that the free open source means zero revenue for Google. So in order to evaluate if Android will be the next big revenue stream for Google, one needs to get past the initial excitement arising out of the handsets growth projection.

It sits on a staggering $30 billion of cash worth $95 a share, and annually generates another $27 in free cash flow. While it may be a one trick pony, with 97% of its revenues coming from search, that’s not a problem if the equine’s name is Seabiscuit, with a 70% global market share. A turnaround at YouTube. (GOOG), (BIDU).

The title says it all...

For those who don't see the forest due to all of that tree bark getting in the way, allow me to outline the synergistic advantages Google is building through the prolific growth of the Android platform...

Earlier we highlighted a very sternly worded anti-US essay on the front page of the primary communist party daily. Some thought it was merely yet more posturing. Alas, they may have been very wrong. Associated Press reports that Google has now been completely blocked from mainland China access, with few if any details coming from Google itself, meaning this was another unilateral muscle flexing exercise by China. However, as far as Google is concerned, and judging by BIDU stock after hours, it may well be game over for the great Chinese decoupling experiment.

A 3 minute historic overview of Google: The Most Powerful Company in the World?

This is an excerpt from part two of a multi-part series on the companies vying for dominance during the 3rd major paradigm shift in personal and enterprise technology over the last 30 years. This one will be a biggie (not smalls) and promises to create an investment behemoth out of the winner and relegate the losers to relatively niche markets. This is saying a lot considering the size of the companies participating in the battle for the pole position. I created this series to provide a truly objective, truly informed, and truly analytical (from an empirical perspective) knowledge source on this very important intersection in personal computing and distributed media.

A hands on analysis behind what the coming wars between the Apple IPhone/Ipad, Google/Android, and Microsoft/Windows means to the technology business, the (fortunate) consumer, and the future of computing. The next Microsoft is about to be borne, and its a good chance it may not be Microsoft this time around.

Don’t kid yourself, Google didn’t leave China, it was booted out. Blame Sergei. Google is increasingly being priced like a public utility it has become, not the hyper growth super nova it once was. Investors are growing less tolerant of the firm’s quixotic forays into other money losing business. Did I mention that they have a space program? (GOOG), (BIDU).

The Goldman "Conviction Buy" Criteria list: if XYZ drops out of upward channel, then dump. Enter Google. The Fast Momo Brigade just ordered an XXL dose of incontinence products: "We remove Google shares from the Americas Conviction Buy List due to recent underperformance following in-line 1Q results. We remain Buyrated given: (1) Shares are attractive at around 16X our 2011E EPS/FCF, (2) our forecast for multi-year mid-teens revenue and earnings growth, and (3) structural upside from global search penetration catching up to US/UK levels, and from Google moving toward Yahoo! in display share. Since adding Google to the Conviction Buy List on August 19, 2009, shares are up 23%, vs. the S&P 500 up 22%. Over the past year, Google shares are up 42%, vs. the S&P 500 up 43%."

The governments of 10 western countries called Google evil in a letter demanding the company improve user privacy, citing concerns about Google Buzz and Street View services.

With the stock getting monkeyhammered after hours, here are first flash thoughts on GOOG's quarter from UBS (which has a $700 price target). As soon as they are available, we will present the thoughts of everyone else who has a Buy on the name (pretty much all of Wall Street).

China is now playing hardball, and this is even without Paul Krugman being in the picture (yet). The WSJ reports that China has now blocked virtually "all searches by Chinese users on Google
Inc. sites Tuesday, sharply escalating the battle with the U.S.
Internet giant a week after it stopped obeying Beijing's censorship
rules." This is hardly unexpected, yet what it means is that just as the US stock market will now be defined by QQQQ, C, BOFA and now APPL, as consumers decide against paying their mortgage and reroute their meager unemployment checks into advance orders for the iPad, so the Shanghai Composite will be determined solely by BIDU.

China may have just taken the first retaliatory step against Google, after the search enginge decided to relocated its service out of Hong Kong. As the website created by Google to keep track of Mainland China service availability indicates, mobile services for the first time have become partially blocked on March 28.