Great Depression

Exclusive: In Search Of The Next Big (Widening) Thing

Every now and then we go through the list of IG11 companies looking for something that just looks out of place. This time around our attention was caught by a financial company, whose CDS was trading at a level which we initially thought had to be a mistake.

Moody's Puts Almost All CLO Tranches On Downgrade Review

In adhering to its strict philosophy of throwing out all babies with the bathwater and never believing in fundamental analysis, and also continuing with its recent mass downgrades of all the assets it had been pumping for ages, Moody's earlier came out with a bomb on an announcement saying it has put essentially all CLO tranches on downgrade review.

Moody's Puts Almost All CLO Tranches On Downgrade Review

In adhering to its strict philosophy of throwing out all babies with the bathwater and never believing in fundamental analysis, and also continuing with its recent mass downgrades of all the assets it had been pumping for ages, Moody's earlier came out with a bomb on an announcement saying it has put essentially all CLO tranches on downgrade review.

Bank Of Countrywide Lynch and Citi in Full Panic Denial Mode

Both out with rose-colored releases to CNBC: Citi claiming its capital base is strong and it continues to streamline business (coach class tickets likely to be verboten as well soon), while BAC claiming there is no reason to nationalize a bank that is profitable, well-capitalized and has the coolest office furniture this side of Sir Stanford's corner office cum cricket field.

Some other pessimism porn:

Of -6% Fed Fund Rates and $9.3 Trillion in Troubled US Assets

Zero Hedge makes fun of sell side research often. After all who doesn't. But sometimes we are pleasantly surprised, such as when we read Goldman's weekly economic analysis piece for the week of January 23. Several issues discussed in the report include an overview of the remaining arsenal of governmental responses to the mega crisis we are in, both in the fiscal and monetary realm, a sober estimation of just how bad the real troubled asset situation in the U.S. may be if we remove the wool from our eyes, as well as what needs to be considered before making an appropriate policy move.

Of -6% Fed Fund Rates and $9.3 Trillion in Troubled US Assets

Zero Hedge makes fun of sell side research often. After all who doesn't. But sometimes we are pleasantly surprised, such as when we read Goldman's weekly economic analysis piece for the week of January 23. Several issues discussed in the report include an overview of the remaining arsenal of governmental responses to the mega crisis we are in, both in the fiscal and monetary realm, a sober estimation of just how bad the real troubled asset situation in the U.S. may be if we remove the wool from our eyes, as well as what needs to be considered before making an appropriate policy move.

13.9% Defaults Expected This Year

S&P expects the US corporate default rate to reach all-time high of 13.9% this year, a significant revision of its previous projection a 7.6% base-case and the consequence of “a substantial worsening of the economy and the financial environment.

Overview Of Implied Default Rates and Probabilities

It is always entertaining to listen to Mark "Hogan's Bottom" Haines speculate about implied defaults, recoveries and what not... So we decided to dispel some ambiguity and speculation by presenting a brief overview of what the implied bankruptcy rate is, at least mathematically.

I Am The Retarded Plebs' Smirking Revenge

Just as our funny-speaking cousins 3 hours east of us (via Concorde; probably more like 15 hours if using one of American Airlines' retrofitted B-707 with almost two wings and a fully operational engine, and that includes the 8 hour unairconditioned tarmac wait at JFK and Heathrow) thought that the Waxman witch trials would be confined to the likes of Jim