"...debt is simply everywhere, at least to the extent we can see and measure it. Corporate and sovereign debt, of both the developed world and emerging market varieties, are at record levels. China’s debts certainly add to that record but who really knows to what extent? It’s the ultimate black box of leverage on Planet Earth... You cannot NOT worry about the Fed in this world...The simple truth is ending reinvestment would bring the bond market to its knees.”
At bottom, it is not central bank stimulus and intervention alone that drives equities and bond markets; it is the naive faith and willful ignorance of average market participants. There is a problem with this kind of economic model, however. Reality is never kept in check indefinitely. Fiscal truths will be exposed, one way or another.
"Even if he’s as bad as he sometimes projects to be, he’s not as bad as Hillary’s policy-record already is." Sometimes, things in politics are the opposite of the way they seem. The Presidential contest between the ‘liberal’ Hillary Clinton’ and the ‘conservative’ Donald Trump is perhaps the most extreme example of this - for these ten reasons...
"In a looping debate rant, Mr. Trump argued that an increasingly “political” Fed is holding interest rates low to help Democrats in November, driving up a “big, fat, ugly bubble” that will pop when the central bank raises rates. This riff has some truth to it... The stock market should be a barometer of the economy, but in practice it has become a barometer of Fed policy."
Chemistry professor, and infamous market observer Dave Collum, author of the encyclopedic 'Year in Reviews',senses "existential risk in the American Experiment." In an excellent interview with The Cornell Review, Collum opines on everything from 'safe spaces' to 'social unrest' warning "people are now mad, and it shows in the chaotic election. We are guaranteed to elect a president that half the populace finds repugnant...Change is in the air."
The Fed has created a situation where the housing industry is so dependant on the massive interest rate subsidy that any uptick in rates is likely to cause a cataclysm. The Fed and its cohorts are responsible for this mess. They have left themselves, and us, with no way out.
Most of the 90 minutes last night was a waste - with both candidates lobbing well-worn clichés, slogans and sound bites at the audience and each other.But there was one brief moment that made it all worthwhile.
"Sometimes history jumps. Think of the first world war, the Bolshevik revolution, the Great Depression, the election of Adolf Hitler, the second world war,... We may be on the brink of an event as transformative as many of these: the election of Donald Trump as US president. This would mark the end of a US-led west as the central force in global affairs. The result would not be a new order. It would be perilous disorder."
"...to be blunt, given the aforementioned fundamental risks and the poor risk/return skew, history is clearly not in favor of those who remain long equities banking on the Fed to continue to levitate valuations and prices with limited tools and faulty narratives."
"These linear thinkers can’t understand why their playbook of lies, misinformation, pointless social justice issues and a myriad of other inane distractions aren’t working this time. They fail to acknowledge that history is cyclical and we’ve entered the phase when generational cohorts are aligned for dramatic sweeping change. The data is there for all to see, but those benefiting from the current perverted paradigm will not be swept aside without a bloody fight."