Greece

Frontrunning: September 2

  • Tables turn: Syria asks the United Nations to stop U.S. strike (Reuters)
  • More tables: Putin sees chance to turn tables on Obama at G20 (Reuters)
  • Obama’s Decision Stirs Doubts About America’s Resolve (BBG)
  • Kerry says US tests prove sarin used in Syria attacks (FT) - is this based on more YouTube or Vine this time?
  • Italy Coalition Reels as Berlusconi Threatens to Sink Letta (BBG)
  • Steinbrueck’s Jabs Fail to Knock Out Merkel in Election Debate (BBG)
  • India's crisis within a crisis; finance minister fights on two fronts (Reuters)
  • Ikea signals slower expansion (FT)
  • US spied on Brazil, Mexico presidents (AFP) - since it spies on its people, is this a surprise?
  • What's the Difference Between U.S., Chinese Corruption? (BBG)
  • First Strut Default Jolts High-Yield Market: South Africa Credit (BBG)
  • Vodafone, Verizon Agree on $130 Billion Deal (BBG)

European August PMI Hits 26 Month High Despite 19th Straight Month Of Accelerating Manufacturing Job Losses

After China's weekend PMI release, Monday saw the full data dump of final Manufacturing PMIs from Europe, which on the surface was as good as it could get: with a composite PMI print of 51.4, compared to expectations and a flash reading of 51.3, this was the highest number in 26 months. Summarizing the European final August PMI data: manufacturers feel broadly better about themselves: in fact the best in 26 months, with new orders largely fueled by export demand. Yet exports to where one wonders, considering net trade surplus data has been stronger than expected for virtually all nations in the past month: after all in a zero trade sum world someone has to be substantially increasing their imports? But more importantly, actual jobs - the real growth dynamo for the European economy - continue to deteriorate, accelerating their downward pace having declined for 19 months in a row.

GoldCore's picture

This week will see the end of August trading and September is, along with November, one of the strongest months to own gold. This is seen in the charts showing gold’s monthly performance over different time frames - 1975 to 2011, 2000 to 2011 and our Bloomberg Gold Seasonality table  from 2003 to 2013 (10 years is the maximum that can be used).

Thackray's 2011 Investor's Guide notes that the optimal period to own gold bullion is from July 12 to October 9. During the past 25 periods, gold bullion has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 4.7%.

Pivotfarm's picture

There’s too much of a sameness about Japan and the USA today. The Land of the Rising Sun and good old Uncle Sam have been copying each other far too much and now it seems as if they are railroading on the same train to the Land of Debt.

Frontrunning: August 29

  • UN Insecptors to leave Syria early, by Saturday morning (Reuters)
  • Yellen Plays Down Chances of Getting Fed Job (WSJ)
  • JPMorgan Bribe Probe Said to Expand in Asia as Spreadsheet Is Found (BBG)
  • No Section 8 for you: Wall Street’s Rental Bet Brings Quandary Housing Poor (BBG)
  • Euro zone, IMF to press Greece for foreign agency to sell assets (Reuters)
  • Brothels in Nevada Suffer as Web Disrupts Oldest Trade (BBG)
  • U.S., U.K. Face Delays in Push to Strike Syria (WSJ); U.S., U.K. Pressure for Action on Syria Hits UN Hurdle (BBG)
  • Renault Operating Chief Carlos Tavares Steps Down (WSJ)
  • Vodafone in talks with Verizon to sell out of U.S. venture (Reuters)
  • Dollar Seen Casting Off Euro Shackles as Fed Tapers (BBG)

From Grecovery To Grevolting: Greece Denies It Will Sell Expired Food

With a debt once again jumping higher, GDP stalling, crime soaring, unemployment surging, and homelessness rife - oh, and the money-men (women) proclaiming that "Greece should never have entered the Euro" - the government is now backtracking on a previous decision that "expired foodstuffs will be made available for purchase as of September 1st." Unsurprisingly, the announcement of the new regulation on Monday sparked angry reactions from consumers, and prompted the Consumer Ministry to explain on State TV that the directive had been misinterpreted by media reports and does not represent a public health hazard.

Pivotfarm's picture

Yes US Needs Immigration

The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act. It’s a mammoth of a reform bill and runs 844 pages (plus 350 pages of annexes). A needed overhaul of the 1986 law, but it will have its downsides too.

Frontrunning: August 28

  • Merkel Blames SPD’s Schroeder for Letting Greece Into Euro (BBG)
  • U.S. Bank Legal Bills Exceed $100 Billion (BBG)
  • U.K. to Request U.N. Action to Protect Syrians From Chemical Weapons  (WSJ) - and Russia to veto any decision
  • U.N. inspectors in new Syria mission as West prepares to strike (Reuters)
  • Emerging-Market Rout Intensifies on Syria Jitters (WSJ)
  • Rebels Without a Leader Show Limit to U.S. Role in Syria War (BBG)
  • Anger at IRS Powers Tea-Party Comeback (WSJ)
  • China has much at risk but no reach in Middle East (Reuters)
  • 'London Whale' Penalties Put at $500 Million to $600 Million (WSJ)
  • U.S. lawmaker says 'compelling' evidence of Syrian chemical attack (Reuters)

Asmussen/Merkel Double Whammy

Just when the world thought Europe was the new cleanest dirty shirt, ECB's Asmussen and Germany's Merkel have opened the can of European worms once more. First Asmussen...

  • *ASMUSSEN SAYS ECB IS NOT AN ECONOMIC ALL-PURPOSE WEAPON
  • *ASMUSSEN SAYS OMT PROGRAM LEGALLY POSSIBLE (a year later, still not sure?)
  • *ASMUSSEN SAYS GERMANY 3Q WILL BE 'SOMEWHAT WEAKER' THAN 2Q

and then Merkel...

  • *MERKEL SAYS GREECE SHOULDN'T HAVE BEEN LET INTO EURO AT ENTRY
  • *MERKEL SAYS SCHROEDER RESPONSIBLE FOR `FALSE' GREECE DECISION

So that would appear to be it for those hoping for her to soften her stance post-elections... and remember Greek debt is soaring once again.

On The Global QE Exit Crisis

The global economy could be in the early stages of another crisis. Once again, the US Federal Reserve is in the eye of the storm. As the Fed attempts to exit from so-called quantitative easing (QE) – its unprecedented policy of massive purchases of long-term assets – many high-flying emerging economies suddenly find themselves in a vise. The Fed insists that it is blameless – the same absurd position that it took in the aftermath of the Great Crisis of 2008-2009. As in the mid-2000’s, there is plenty of blame to go around this time as well. The Fed is hardly alone in embracing unconventional monetary easing. Moreover, the collapsing 'developing economies' all have one thing in common: large current-account deficits. A large current-account deficit is a classic symptom of a pre-crisis economy living beyond its means – in effect, investing more than it is saving. The only way to sustain economic growth in the face of such an imbalance is to borrow surplus savings from abroad. That is where QE came into play...

Futures Tumble On Pre-War Jitters, Emerging Market Rout, More Summers Rumors

Overnight the emerging market rout continued, with the India Sensex down another 3.18%, the Philippines tumbling 4%, Jakarta down 3.7% and Dubai crashing 7%. A driving factor continues to be the fear over an imminent air campaign launched at Syria, leading both WTI and Brent higher by 1%, and gold finally breaking out above the $1400 tractor beam, and printing at $1412 at last check, a hair away from a 20% bull market from the lows. In other news, the market is once again "surprised" to learn that Summers, who as we have been showing for over three weeks is the frontrunner for the Fed chair, is the frontrunner for the Fed chair according to CNBC. Of course, there is nothing preventing this from being the latest trial balloon (and nothing that suggest Summers will actually be hawkish as conventional wisdom seems to think: the guy basically works for the financial sector) but futures aren't waiting to find out, and US traders are walking in this morning to a red screen with ES down just over 10 point and sliding. Any minute now the great unrotation from stocks into bonds (10 Year was 2.77% at last check) is about to be unleashed. And if Obama actually goes to war (without talking to Congress of course), watch the bottom fall from the market.