Earlier today an EU official was reported as saying that Greek banks will exclude all depositors from losses until the EU’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive rules go into effect on Jan. 1, 2016. Needless to say this was vastly different to Dijsselbloem's blanket guarantee statement from Friday, and suggests that depositors will indeed be bailed-in, but not right now: only after BRRD rules come in place on the first day of 2016.
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has lost the support he needs to win a confidence vote, setting up the possibility of snap elections. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's bulletproof reputation will be tested on Wednesday when the Bundestag will be forced to vote on the Greek bailout without an assurance that the IMF will ultimately shoulder a portion of the burden.
"Time is now rapidly running out," warns The Telegraph's John Ficenec as the British paper takes a deep dive into the dark realities behind the mainstream media headlines continued faith in central planning. Sounding very "Zero Hedge", Ficenec warns that from China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt. It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations.
Here, in one chart, is the reason why anyone following China's devaluation is very nervous. And if they aren't yet, they should be. As Goldman explains, "if the recent CNY moves are the start of a journey, even undoing half of the accumulated trade-weighted appreciation of the last three years, this may provoke a meaningful additional bout of currency depreciation across the EM complex."
RANSQUAWK WEEK AHEAD VIDEO - 17th August - Markets remain concerned about China, key releases include US CPI and FOMC MinutesSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 08/17/2015 08:19 -0400
- Markets will be keeping a close an eye on what action/if any the PBoC take to try and keep Chinese growth prospects on course.
- Main releases this week come in the form of US and UK CPI reports and the FOMC minutes release
- Oil moves nearer six-year low on Japan data, oversupply (Reuters)
- Commodity Slide Spurs Treasuries as Emerging Markets Extend Drop (BBG)
- Because 7 years is "just right" - BOE Official Says Don’t Wait Too Long on Rates (WSJ)
- How Medicare Rewards Copious Nursing-Home Therapy (WSJ)
- Millennials Are Developing Parents’ Taste for Jaguars, Cadillacs (BBG) ... and even more debt
- Mexican Billionaire’s Firms Swept Up in U.S. Probe of Citigroup (BBG)
It was a relatively quiet weekend out of China, where FX warfare has taken a back seat to evaluating the full damage from the Tianjin explosion which as we reported on Saturday has prompted the evacuation of a 3 km radius around the blast zone, and instead it was Japan that featured prominently in Sunday's headlines after its Q2 GDP tumbled by 1.6% (a number which would have been far worse had Japan used a correct deflator), and is now halfway to its fifth recession in the past 6 year, underscoring Abenomics complete success in desrtoying Japan's economy just to get a few rich people richer. Of course, economic disintegration is great news for stocks, and courtesy of the latest Yen collapse driven by the bad GDP data which has raised the likelihood of even more Japanese QE, the Nikkei closed 100 points, or 0.5% higher.
The purpose of austerity is to create insecurity and instill fear in the general population in order to protect the finance and banking sector from popular rage against the crimes the participants of this sector have committed against ordinary people. This rage ought to have given rise a long time ago to legal actions and desperately needed fundamental reforms to take away from bankers the right to create money, a right which they have abused at tremendous cost to ordinary people. Instead of collective reforms, what we are being subjected to is a policy of deliberately spreading insecurity together with the scapegoating of vulnerable people.
A look at next week's data in the somewhat larger context, and a look at interest rate differentials
... and the ECB printing presses!
China, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Sweden - it is beyond us how anyone can declare the crisis isn’t spreading. Be prepared – there are going to be lots of opportunities to both make and lose money. But first, you have to recognize what is happening.
The bond bubble is now well over $199 trillion in size. And if we were to include credit instruments that trade based on bonds, we’re well north of $600 trillion.
Anyone with any sense for global economic trends ought to be worried. The signs are everywhere of a serious deflationary crisis.
Consumer confidence deteriorated in most countries in July. While some of the deterioration was likely due to sentiment effects around the situation in Greece/Europe and the market volatility in China, rather than fundamental deterioration (which will be confirmed at the end of August if sentiment rebounds) it is worth paying attention to the trends in global consumer confidence, as it generally tends to reflect the prevailing global macro winds.