Greece

Love him or hate him, Putin sets the record straight. While the media's attention remains on the Greek fiscal crisis, the bigger debt crisis is in the US, and the world is starting to take notice.

16:58 02/15 EU JUNCKER: WON'T SPECULATE ON INSTRUMENTS TO HELP GREECE
16:59 02/15 EU JUNCKER: NOT WISE TO PUBLICLY DISCUSS SPECIFIC AID TO GREECE
17:01 02/15 EU JUNCKER: GREECE WILL NOT BE LEFT TO MERCY OF MARKETS
16:46 02/15 EU JUNCKER: WE WILL RETURN TO THE GREECE TOPIC IN MID-MARCH
16:42 02/15 EU JUNCKER: GREECE NEW MEASURES ON MAR 16 IF RISKS MATERIALIZE
16:40 02/15 EU JUNCKER: GREECE SHALL ANNOUNCE ADDITIONAL MEASURES MARCH 16
17:01 02/15 EU JUNCKER: WE ARE DOING ALL WE CAN ON GREECE
16:47 02/15 EU JUNCKER: IT IS UP TO GREECE TO CUT ITS BUDGET DEFICIT

and the ever ready:

16:47 02/15 EU JUNCKER: EUROZONE STANDS READY TO ACT IF GREECE NEEDS

Uhm, they need it bud. Like yesterday.

Translation: "Translation: "that whole "bail out" thing... we were keeeeeding. Oh, but don't short Greece. That's not cool. You see we all have our collective head up our collective behind and we think it will all sort itself out if we just keep on doing nothing."

The media world is aflutter with recent revelations that Goldman may have facilitated Greece in creating an SPV that "rebalanced" budget payments via an interest rate swap arrangement, which the NYT describes as "a currency trade rather than a loan, [which] helped Athens meet Europe’s deficit rules while continuing to spend beyond its means." For those curious to get a much more detailed perspective on the mechanics of not just this, but a comparable Goldman-facilitated transaction, we suggest the following article in Risk Magazine, which focuses on a similar prior deal completed over six years ago. Yet we are fairly confident that all this barrage of information is merely a Houdini distraction act: the prospectus of the February 2009 securitization deal clearly delineates the mechanics of the deal; it was full public knowledge. Of course, a Europe gripped by sudden chaos due to their aggressive and quick "bail out" response with no regard for public backlash, is now taking full advantage of this recent "discovery" to make it seem that Greece and Goldman were hiding even more information: Bloomberg reports that "Greece was ordered by European Union regulators to disclose details of currency swaps it may have used to deal with the debts that threaten to swamp its economy." Germany's CDU has gone one step further and claims that the "Goldman deal broke the spirit of Euro rules." Alas, this is nothing but more scapegoating while Europe tries to find its bearings and, if possible, back out of the bail out while finding more pretexts to throw Greece out of the euro zone entirely. If it takes a Goldman smear campaign, so be it.

However, where the rub truly lies, and where things for Greece may get very hairy fairly quick, is in the interplay between the rating agencies and the rating of the Goldman underwritten swap agreement securitization SPV known better as Titlos PLC. As one recalls, it was precisely the rating agencies that were the proximal catalyst that started the collateral call cascade that ultimately resulted in AIG's failure and subsequent bailout (ignoring for a moment the pent up toxicity on AIG's books: both AIG then, and Greece now, are in deplorable shape: the question is what will bring it all to the surface). So here are some recent facts: On December 23, 2009, Moody's downgraded Titlos, following the prior day's downgrade of Greece itself from A1 to A2 with a negative outlook. Fact: last week Moody's said it could further downgrade Greece to Baa1. Fact: the Titlos PLC rating mirrors that of Greece itself. Fact: according to Moody's "Framework for De-Linking Hedge Counterparty Risks from Global Structured Finance Cashflow Transactions Moody's Methodology" a counterparty can enter into a hedge transaction with an SPV and continue to participate in that transaction without collateralizing its obligations so long as it maintains a long-term senior unsecured rating of at least A2. When (not if) Titlos is downgraded again, and its rating drops below the A2 collateralization threshold, look for AIG's margin call driven liquidity crisis escalation from the fall of 2008 to spread to Greece. And that's not all. The Titlos SPV itself may be null and void should the rating of the National Bank of Greece, as the Hedge Provider, drop below a "relevant rating" as defined in the hedge agreement. Should Greece then be forced, at Titlos' option, to unwind the swap agreement, and be forced to cash out to the tune of €5.4 billion (net of the 107.54 issuance price), look for all hell to break loose.

For Greece, with on and off balance sheet liabilities at over 800%, it's game over. For the Eurozone, with the same ratio at about 500%, it is also game over. For the US, at 500%+, it is, you guessed it (sorry Joseph Stiglitz), game over, but since we have the printers, it will simply take a little longer. Following up on yesterday's popular post on prevailing delusions as captured by Albert Edwards' colleague Dylan Grice, we present Albert's latest outlook. Please don't read this if you want to keep believing there is any hope left for the (developed) world.

Pimco's Michael Gomez, who recently shared the floor with Hugh Hendry, Marc Faber and Nassim Taleb, and who was likely the key voice in Pimco's recent decision to accumulate German Bunds, shares insights on the euro, Greece and new investment opportunities. Based on this Bloomberg TV interview, it is likely that PIMCO will soon be accumulating a variety of Polish and Brazilian sovereign bonds, as well as corporate bonds in Brazil, Mexico and Russia, with an emphasis on the first. With tens of billions in dry powder, PIMCO will likely have an increasingly risky EM exposure as it departs from its traditional MBS/UST portfolio.

The non-bailout bailout is here. Or is it? They really should have used Larry Summers. Van Rompuy says "determined and coordinated action if needed" will be provided. Uh, it is needed. But what is the deal? And what are the details? Greek 2s10s 40 bps steeper to +93 bps as 2 Year trades 56 bps lower to 4.97%.

As just stated, the action of the last four trading days presents a few challenges. One scenario suggests that the rescue rally runs out of steam today or tomorrow. It then could reverse sharply to the downside, retesting or penetrating Friday’s intra-day lows.

A second scenario suggests that the rally hangs on, consolidating as it again tests the 1105/1110 area. There are also a variety of chart patterns that may be forming. The S&P looks to have a budding head and shoulders showing up on the napkins. Robert McHugh sees a potentially ominous wedge topping formation in the S&P. For today, the napkins suggest resistance in the S&P sits at 1083/1088 and then 1094/1099. Support looks like 1058/1063." - Art Cashin

Goldman is not making any friends today (to be expected - Greece likely does not need Goldman's creative swap accounting anymore - after all, they (Greece, not Goldman) are bankrupt right? Why else would they need a bailout). Earlier we first reported about Goldman's novel read of the "revised" Greek budget. It appears Greece is not too happy with this and is already blaming Goldman for data misinterpretation. We await Erik Nielsen's mea culpa.

More as we get it.

Goldman's Erik Nielsen lands the bombshell that the Greek deficit mysteriously increased from €29.4 billion to a shopping €37.9 (keep in mind, this is not Bernanke notation where only quad- prefixes impress people at this point). This increases the (running) 2009 budget deficit from 12.2% to 16%! While certainly not the last time we hear of "prior revisions", the question of just how patient Germany will be, should this number approach, oh say, 50% once the artificial support of various Goldman swaps expires (and at 50% the BSDs like Goldman will surely round up to 100%), is very much open.

A story of some folks who stumbled and why. This story could be Greece or Spain in a year or two.

This latest on Greece, this time from Dow Jones. Why is Obama speaking about windmills as the future of global moral hazard, Larry Summers edition, is being decided in Berlin? From DJ: "Finance Ministry spokesman Michael Offer said EU members wanted to develop further recapitalization measures that calm the markets."

Crazy pill time. More disinformation as we get it. Is Germany merely probing to see the market reaction to leaks? If the Bund collapses can they just call the whole thing off?

Yesterday we reported on "concerted hedge fund attacks" rumors involving Greece. Today, via Alphaville, it appears that the mysterious hedge fund cabal strikes again, this time in Spain, and, more relevantly, this time there are names associated. If indeed these are the actors set on setting the world ablaze, they are more than likely the same ones who are involved in Greece, Portugal, Dubai, and elsewhere. Presenting: Moore Capital, Brevan Howard and Paulson & Co... Oh and JP Morgan and, ahem, Goldman Sachs.

Greece just implemented pension reforms in an attempt to shore up its public finances and others will follow suit...