Greece

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This Is What Global Currency War Looks Like: A Complete History Of Recent FX Interventions





To help remind readers of what happens when the entire world engages in wholesale currency war, here is a complete list of all the recent FX interventions, courtesy of Stone McCarthy.

 
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Third Time's The Charm? Greece Agrees To Bailout Amid Rampant Skepticism





After what were described as "marathon" negotiations, Greece and its creditors have agreed to the terms of the country’s third bailout program. Although some remain optimistic, the general consensus seems to be that, as Finnish Foreign Minister Timo Soini said over the weekend, "we should just admit that this isn't going to work."

 
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Frontrunning: August 11





  • China Rattles Markets With Yuan Devaluation (BBG)
  • China Move Sparks Wave of Yuan Selling (WSJ)
  • China's devaluation raises currency war fear as Greece strikes deal (Reuters)
  • Protests return to Ferguson streets, state of emergency declared (Reuters)
  • Heavily armed 'Oath Keepers' inject new unease to riot-hit Ferguson (Reuters)
  • Greece Secures Bailout Deal After All-Night Talks in Athens (BBG)
  • U.S. Identifies Insider Trading Ring With Ukraine Hackers (BBG)
 
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China's Historic Devaluation Sends Equity Futures, Oil, Bond Yields Sliding, Gold Spikes





If yesterday it was the turn of the upside stop hunting algos to crush anyone who was even modestly bearishly positioned in what ended up being the biggest short squeeze of 2015, then today it is the downside trailing stops that are about to be taken out in what remains the most vicious rangebound market in years, in the aftermath of the Chinese currency devaluation which weakened the CNY reference rate against the USD by the most on record, in what some have said was an attempt by China to spark its flailing SDR inclusion chances, but what was really a long overdue reaction by an exporter country having pegged to the strongest currency in the world in the past year.

 
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Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff Approval Rating Crashes To 8% - Worst Since Military Dictatorship





With the economy imploding, currency collapsing, and credit risk soaring, it is perhaps no surprise that just under a year since she was re-elected, Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff is now Brazil's most unpopular democratically elected president since a military dictatorship ended in 1985, with an approval rating of just 8%. In a recent poll, 71% said they disapprove of the way Rousseff is doing her job... and two-thirds would like to see her impeached.

 
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And The Biggest Beneficiary Of The Greek Crisis Is...





"These savings exceed the costs of the crisis - even if Greece were to default on its entire debt. [That is] even if Greece doesn't pay back a single cent, the public purse has benefited financially from the crisis."

 
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Four Economic Myths That Perpetuate The Euro Crisis





Too much of the commentary about the Greek crisis has focused on whether or not Greece should drop the euro and not enough on the structural problems arising out of decades of socialism. Meanwhile, the Greek government has borrowed more money than the Greek people can possibly repay, and debased money will not make this fact disappear. On the contrary, more easy money will cause even more harm. The best thing that Europe and Greece can do for itself right now is to confront some of the economic fallacies that have long driven the debate over Greece, the euro, austerity, and debt.

 
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Why Goldman Is Confident The Fed Will Wait To Hike Until December (At Least)





Confused if the Fed will hike rates in September, or December, or never? Don't worry, the Fed is just as confused, at least until NY Fed's Bill Dudley has his biweekly meeting with Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius at the Pound & Pence, where over a lobster club, the current Goldmanite tells the former Goldmanite what to do. Which, if the most recent note just released by Goldman is any indication, means that the Fed will sorely disappoint all the "Septemberists", as Janet Yellen will opt for a December rate hike instead.

 
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The World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Is About To Become A Seller





In "historic step," Norway may be forced to tap into its $875 billion sovereign wealth fund to help make ends meet in the face of persistently low crude prices.

 
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Frontrunning: August 10





  • Grim China data keeps stimulus hopes alive (Reuters)
  • Berkshire Hathaway to Buy Precision Castparts for About $37 Billion (BBG)
  • Greece, lenders in final push to seal new bailout (Reuters)
  • Quantitative Easing With Chinese Characteristics Takes Shape (BBG)
  • Greece nears €86bn accord with creditors (FT)
  • Oil Futures Signal Weak Prices Could Last Years (WSJ)
  • Drop in long-term investment hinders eurozone recovery (FT)
  • Two shot in Ferguson amid standoff between police, protesters (Reuters)
 
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Chinese Stocks Soar On Terrible Economic Data; US Futures Levitate; Brent Drops To 6 Month Lows





Following last week's bad news for the economy (terrible ADP private payrolls, confirmed by a miss in the NFP) which also resulted in bad news for the market which suffered its worst week in years, many were focused on how the market would react to the latest battery of terrible economic news out of China which as we observed over the weekend reported abysmal trade data, and the worst plunge in Chinese factory prices in 6 years. We now know: the Shanghai Composite soared by 5%, rising to 3,928 and approaching the key 4000 level because the ongoing economic collapse led Pavlov's dog to believe that much more easing is coming from the country which as we showed last night has literally thrown the kitchen sink at stabilizing the plunge in stocks.

 
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The Canaries Continue To Drop Like Flies





It’s getting harder and harder for even the most vocal among Wall Street as they try to sing the “everything is awesome” song when the ground around them continues to be littered with an ever-increasing amount of sprawled out – motionless – canaries.

 
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"They'll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies" Marc Faber Explains Everything





"The future is unknown and we are not dealing with markets that are free markets anymore...now we have government interventions everywhere. [But] in the last say twelve months, I have observed an increasing number of academics who are questioning monetary policies. That's why I think they will take the gold away and go back to some gold standard by revaluing the gold say from now $1000/oz to say $10,000 dollars. An individual should definitely own some physical gold. The bigger question is where should he store it? because... the failure of monetary policies will not be admitted by the professors that are at central banks, they will then go and blame someone else for it and then an easy target would be to blame it on people that own physical gold because - they can argue - well these are the ones that do take money out of circulation and then the velocity of money goes down - we have to take it away from them... That has happened in 1933 in the US."

 
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"We Should Admit This Isn’t Going To Work": One Country's Grim Assessment Of Greece's Future





"If Greece collapsed and Grexit would be tomorrow’s reality, we would lose 3-4 billion euros more or less at once. So I hope that the EU and euro zone, that in due course, we can face the facts and say enough is enough and that we must do something else."

 
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