Well done IMF, well done.
Without the support of the ECB, the country’s banking system would be shut off from international markets and likely collapse.
Despite all the money-printing, bond-buying, ponzi-scheming; the looming reality of a possible Greek default is spreading rapidly across the rest of peripheral European bonds. Greek 3Y bond yields are up 167bps, breaking over 23% today. The last week has seen Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish bond risk rise 12-16bps - a dramatic move off such low Q€-driven bases. Already there is chatter that Spain's resurgent Podemos party will look to negotiate restructuring their debt, which merely confirms the fact that for all the bluster, EU leaders are scared stiff of the implications of 'allowing' Greece to exit...
Judging by the recent action in equity futures, the continuously rangebound US market since the end of QE may be entering its latest downphase, catalyzed to a big extent by the recent strength in the JPY (the EURJPY traded down to 2 year lows overnight), especially following yesterday's not one but two statements by Abe advisor Harada saying a USDJPY at 125 isn't "justified" and a 105 level would be appropriate. A level, incidentally, which would push the Nikkei lower by about 20% and crush Japanese pensions which are now mostly invested in stocks. Not helping matters was the pause in the Chinese and Hang Seng stock bubbles, with the former barely rising 0.3%, while the former actually seeing its first 1.6% decline after many days of torrid, relentless rises.
Could never happen here, right?
Update: as always is the case in Europe, nothing is confirmed until it is officially denied by officials, so here you go: GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL DENIES FT REPORT GREECE PLANNING DEFAULT
It should hardly come as a surprise that after the latest round of Greek pre-negotiation negotiations with the Troika, in which the Greek representative was said to behave like a taxi driver, who "just asked where the money was and insisted his country would soon be bankrupt" and in which the Eurozone members "were disappointed and shocked at Athens' lack of movement in its plans, and in particular its reluctance to talk about cutting civil servants' pensions" that the next Greek step is to fall back - yet again - to square zero: threats of an imminent default. Which is precisely what, according to the FT, has happened "Greece is preparing to take the dramatic step of declaring a debt default unless it can reach a deal with its international creditors by the end of April."
Who could have seen that coming? With Treasury yields pressing lows of the day since the US open, and AAPL in the red; the stop-hunt in stocks this morning is now starting to fade back into reality as Crude oil prices gave up gains and went red and reports appear that Greece is preparing to default... The Dow and S&P are now red on the day.
While today's macro calendar is empty with no central bank speakers or economic news (just the monthly budget (deficit) statement this afternoon), it’s a fairly busy calendar for us to look forward to this week as earnings season kicks up a gear in the US as mentioned while Greece headlines and the G20 finance ministers meeting on Thursday mark the non-data related highlights.
- As reported here first a month ago: The $9 Trillion Short That May Send the Dollar Even Higher (BBG)
- As an instant target for foes, Clinton may struggle to get message heard (Reuters)
- Emerging Stocks Rally 11th Day as Aussie Weakens on China (BBG)
- Puerto Rico, Investors Enlist Ex-IMF Officials (WSJ)
- Dollar’s Rise Reshuffles Global Economy (BBG)
- Indonesia eyes regular navy exercises with U.S. in South China Sea (Reuters)
- Banca Monte dei Paschi Breaches Exposure Limits to Nomura (WSJ)
- European Bond Buyers Find Negative Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Bad (BBG)
China Stocks Soar To 7 Year High After Collapse In Exports; US Futures Slip On Continuing Dollar SurgeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/13/2015 06:55 -0400
If there was any doubt that global trade is stalling, it was promptly wiped out following the latest abysmal Chinese trade data which saw exports tumble by 15% - the most in over a year - on expectations of a 8% rebound, with the trade surplus coming in at CNY18.2 billion, far below the lowest estimate. While unnecessary, with the Chinese GDP growth rate this Wednesday already expect to print at a record low, this was further evidence of weak demand both at home and abroad. Weakness was seen in most key markets, and the strength of China's currency was partly to blame, which again brings up China's CNY devaluation and ultimately QE, which as we wrote some time ago, is the ultimate endgame in the global reflation trade which, at least for now until the CBs begin active money paradropping to everyone not just the 0.01%, is only leading to inflation in stocks and deflation in everything else.v
In a critical disclosure this past Friday which quietly flew under everyone's radar, the Bundesbank director responsible for bank supervision, Andreas Dombret, who is also a member of the board of the European Central Bank’s Single Supervisory Mechanism told Bloomberg in an interview in Johannesburg that "German banks should expect to lose at least half of their investments in bonds of Austrian bad bank Heta Asset Resolution AG and make the appropriate provisions... I think this situation has to be taken seriously by the German banks... if I were to put a number on this I would say it should be a minimum of a 50 percent provision for potential losses."
Gold “Going Higher” and “A Big Buy Here” ...
Greek Negotiator "Shocks" Eurozone Officials, Behaves Like "Taxi Driver": Hope Of Greek Deal "Blown"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/12/2015 12:29 -0400
The mood between Greece's leftist government and its euro zone partners, especially Germany, has deteriorated in the last few weeks, with personal recriminations flying between ministers and calls from Athens for Berlin to pay war reparations. The paper said at last week's meeting the Greek representative just asked where the money was "like a taxi driver", according to sources, and insisted his country would soon be bankrupt. The euro zone sources told the paper that Greece's creditors do not believe this is the case and that it would be a domestic political issue if Athens is unable to fully pay salaries and pensions.
A look ahead into next week's macro forces.