Moments ago we got the latest BofA client flow update in which we were expecting to find that the "smart money", flush with cash, and taking advantage of the Greek "deal" would jump in on last week's biggest weekly market surge since October 2014 when Bullard hinted at QE4 and unleashed a buying surge. To our surprise we find that not only did "smart" money continue selling, but they were joined by the "smartest" money of all, hedge funds. And who did they sell to? Why retail investors of course... and corporate buybacks but that should go without saying.
My own most likely Grexit scenario is a different one yet again. Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, hinted at this in his interview with the Financial Times last week when he said that he felt "something revolutionary" in the air. He is on to something. The most probable scenario for me is Grexit through insurrection.
- Gold claws back ground, European assets lose Greek tarnish (Reuters)
- Greece's Euro Exit Back on the Agenda Next Year, Economists Say (BBG)
- Greece submits bill needed to start rescue talks (Reuters)
- Wall Street Lenders Growing Impatient With U.S. Shale Revolution (BBG)
- Overtime Rules Send Bosses Scrambling (WSJ)
- As Markets Swing, Beijing Steadies Yuan (WSJ)
- Tennessee rampage suspect went to Qatar in 2014 (Reuters)
- Kathryn Dominguez to Be Nominated for Fed Governor (WSJ)
If yesterday's market action was boring, today has been a virtual carbon copy which started with the usual early Chinese selloff levitating into a mildly positive close, with the SHCOMP closing just above the psychological 4,000 level: the next big hurdle will be 4058, the 38.2% Fib correction of the recent fall. In the US equity futures are currently unchanged ahead of a day in which there is no macro economic data but lots of corporate earnings led by Microsoft, Verizon, UTX and of course Apple. Most importantly, some modest USD weakness overnight (DXY -0.1%) has helped the commodity complex, with gold rebounding from overnight lows, while crude has at least stopped the recent carnage which sent WTI below $50.
What does an economy do when it no longer produces enough goods to pay its own bills? It “consumes”, meaning it cannibalizes (i.e. consumes) all of the accumulated wealth of that society. And when the “consumer economy” has cannibalized all that wealth? It turns to debt.
Capital controls imposed by the Greek government are taking a heavy toll on Greek businesses, according to a new report from Endeavour Greece. With over two-thirds of respondents reporting a "significant drop in revenues," and 1 in 9 firms forced to suspend production due to shortages of raw materials (unable to buy due to capital controls), the problems created by The Greek government's action seem asymmetric as almost a quarter (23%) of firms are now "planning to transfer their headquarters abroad for security, cashflow, and stability reasons."
Pay Attention Greece: Puerto Rico Refuses To Pay Creditors Before It Fully Funds Its Citizens' NeedsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2015 19:49 -0400
We hope the Greek government is watching and learning, and taking appropriate measures so that it too can, at least once, prioritize its own people's needs over those of a global banking oligarchy.
"At least 50% of real estate agents have closed down."
"The market is only those who can afford to pay cash."
"While the hardcore of Podemos voters will read the outcome as an even stronger need to change the economic and political order in Europe, the more undecided voters will probably look twice at the Greek economy — held in stasis by bank holidays and capital controls — before risking voting for Podemos," Bloomberg says.
The power, if not necessarily the Truth, resides primarily with the bulls right now or at least it does in certain parts of the market. The NASDAQ broke out last week to new highs but the S&P 500 and even the more speculative Russell 2000 did not. The market’s advance continues to narrow, to concentrate among fewer and fewer names. Bulls will tell you that this is just a pause and the advance will broaden out. And if enough people believe that and there isn’t any convincing reason to sell, they might be right for a while. But at some point the rose colored glasses will come off and someone might wonder aloud why Celgene paid $7 billion for a company with trailing 12 month revenue of $4.5 million. Someone might wonder why Netflix is worth $48 billion and CBS is only worth $27 billion with more than twice the revenue, better margins, a higher ROE and the ability to produce positive cash flow. Until then it’s just a dream within a dream and somebody keeps hitting snooze on the alarm clock.
More than 40,000 food items are being sold with a "poisonous" 10% Value Added Tax hike as of today, burdening the average Greek household with at least 55 euro extra costs per month.
As we showed before when we showed the various Greek circle of debt hell, unless Greece finds a way to access the market once again following its "triumphal return" in mid-2014 when it issued bonds that cost investors (with other people's money) their 2015 bonus, it is only then that the Greek debt repayment hell begins.
Overnight we saw a flush in precious metals, with no apparent catalyst, and now we are seeing US Treasuries extreme volatility as earlier strength extending gains from last week, are unceremoniously and suddenly dumped after Fed's Bullard warned markets that the probability of a September rate hike is now above 50%. Of course, thanks to meltups pre-market in FB, GOOG, and AAPL, stock indices don't care at all.