Greece

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Stocks And The Fundamental Backdrop: The New Strategy Is "Hope"





When Will Bad News Cease to be Good News for Stocks? It is quite amazing to watch this. Even as one economic datum after another indicates that a major slowdown is underway that could well turn into a recession (keep in mind that this is not a certainty – at similar junctures in recent years, aggregate economic data recovered just in the nick of time), the US stock market continues to take everything in stride. The longevity, intensity and persistence of a bubble is per se not proof that it will inevitably continue – it is only an indication of the likely amount of pain the market will eventually dispense.

 
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Russia To Offer Greece New Loans, Gas Price Discount





Russia may offer Greece a discount on gas deliveries and new loans when Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras visits Moscow this week, the Kommersant business daily reported on Tuesday, citing one source in the Russian government. A Kremlin spokesman said last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tsipras planned to discuss economic ties and EU sanctions on Moscow when they meet for talks, which Kommersant said would take place on Thursday. "We are ready to consider the issue of a gas price discount for Greece," the newspaper said quoting an unnamed Russian government source.

 
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Back From Holiday, European Stocks Celebrate Atrocious US Jobs Data, Jump Over 1%





Yesterday it was only the US that got the full benefit of the market-wide stop hunt that sent the US market soaring on its biggest opening ramp in 2015 following the worst payroll data since 2013, because Europe was closed for Easter Monday. Which means today it was Europe's turn to celebrate atrocious US data (yes, yes, snow - because somehow tremendous January and February jobs data was not impacted by snow), and in the first European trading session of the week, equities have started off on the front-foot.

 
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Valuing (Greek) Banks: A Sum-Of-The-Parts Approach





Traditional banks were built to gather deposits. Their design and infrastructure is geared towards that; they are maladapted to today’s interest rate environment. P2P platforms and other non-bank lenders are eating their lunch. Absent some radical rethinking of their operations model, they are about to go the way of the dodo. Of course, markets are not efficient; it will take time for competitors to move in. Traditional banks, however, have few weapons to fend them off: their brands (much less valuable for loan-origination than for deposit-gather purposes) and their (hugely expensive) legacy infrastructure. It took almost a century for the dodo bird to become extinct.

 
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Greece Calculates Germany Owes It A Third Of Its Q4 GDP In WWII Reparations





With almost 70% of Europeans already believing that Greece is a drag on the EU economy, this morning's statement by Greek Alternate Finance Minister Dimitris Mardas - coming just a week after the war-raparations committee was set-up, telling lawmakers in Parliament that he has calculated that Germany owes Greece EUR 278.7 billion in World War II reparations, will surely deepen the rift (at almost 40% of Germany's EUR 735 billion Q4 GDP) whether right or wrong.

 
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Greek Minister Slams Troika's "Unbelievable Prejudice" As EU Proclaims Tsipras' Government "Cannot Survive"





The rhetoric, threats, and promises continue to increase as Greece, its international creditors (i.e. Troika), and its potential pivot partners from Russia to China to Iran all vie for attention. With EU officials proclaiming "[the Greek] government cannot survive," suggesting Tsipras divorce himself from the extreme left of his party; and with 68% of Europeans polled believing Greece is a drag on the EU economy, Greece's last best hope perhaps remains with a pivot to another Troika (Russia, China, and Iran) as energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis denounced Greece’s international creditors for treating the country with "unbelievable prejudice and as a colony." This all on the day when FinMin Varoufakis 'promises' Christine Lagarde that Greece will repay its IMF loan on April 9th (somehow?).

 
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Frontrunning: April 6





  • Political Battle Ramps Up Over Iran Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
  • Greece moves to quell default fears, pledges to meet 'all obligations' (Reuters)
  • Isolated Greece pivots east to Russia, China and Iran. But will it work? (Telegraph)
  • Frustrated officials want Greek premier to ditch Syriza far left (FT)
  • Greek political unrest and deepening debt crisis fuel talk of snap election (Guardian)
  • Rand Paul’s Challenge: Charting His Own Course (WSJ)
  • In Greenspan Conundrum Redux, Odds Are on Bond Traders’ Side (BBG)
  • Yemen's Aden suffers amid clashes, aid deliveries delayed (Reuters)
  • Record Gasoline Output to Curb Biggest U.S. Oil Glut in 85 Years (BBG)
 
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Stock Futures Keep Losses, Gold Near Highs After Worst Jobs Report Since 2013





As market participants slowly make their way back to trading desks around the post-Easter world, and especially the US where a truncated session on Friday morning ended in tears for anyone hoping for a 2015 US recovery following an abysmal March nonfarm payrolls print, they find that unlike on previous occasions, the equity futures liftathon is nowhere to be found this morning, with the S&P set to resume trading in the red for 2015. Away from Greece, whose future remains in limbo, the biggest development over the holiday weekend was a Goldman note in which the central-bank friendly firm said that "the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now."

 
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Leader Of Ukraine's Neo-Nazis Appointed As Advisor To Army





Dmytro Yarosh, leader of ‘Pravyi Sector’ (aka Right Sector) political party, whose ideology has been described as nationalist, ultranationalist, neofascist, right-wing, or far right, was just appointed as Advisor to Chief of General Staff. Yesterday, Colonel General Viktor Muzhenko, Chief of General Staff, and Dmytro Yarosh agreed the format of cooperation between ‘Pravyi Sector’ and the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In other words, the Ukraine army just launched a joint-venture with the local neo-fascist groups.

 
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Cypriot President Throws Greeks Under The Bus: "Planning To Deal With Grexit"





"I want to believe that there is no such risk," says Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiades, but in a shock to the Greeks, their close 'ally' in Cyprus, as KeepTalking Greece notes, openly joined the international Grexit propaganda club, as Anastasiades said his country had a backup plan to deal with the fallout of a possible Greek exit from the eurozone.

 
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Germany Generously Offers To Freeze The Bank Accounts Of Wealthy Greeks





Germany has been kind enough to provide an idea where the foundering Greek "radical leftist" government can find some additional funds: by freezing and raiding the bank accounts of wealthy Greeks. Of course, the legal loophole provision is that only those suspected (not convicted) of tax fraud would be eligible for such an asset  freeze, however since in Greece virtually nobody pays the amount of tax they should, this is essentially a carte blanche to freeze and raid the funds of the wealthiest Greeks who have bank accounts in Germany (and soon in all other European nations) no questions asked.

 
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Pitchfork Populism & The Ghost Of 1937





With the Fed supposedly steeling itself at last to remove a little of its emergency ‘accommodation’, it has suddenly become fashionable to warn of the awful parallels with 1937 as an excuse The Fed must not act today. We strongly refute the analogy. Instead, the real Ghost of ’37 takes the form of mean-spirited and, counter-productive 'pitchfork populism' politics and the spectre should not be conjured up to excuse the central bank from further delaying its overdue embarkation on the long road back to normality and policy minimalism.

 
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Ahoy! Oil Tankers Form Four-Mile Line In Persian Gulf As Iran Talks Stoke Supply Glut Fears





As the market ponders how quickly an Iran nuclear deal and subsequent lifting of sanctions will affect crude prices, record production in Iraq leaves 5% of the world's tanker fleet parked in the Persian Gulf.

 
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