Green Shoots

The FX Week Ahead: The Dollar Crashes Again, Can The Fed Revive The USD At Wednesday's FOMC?

Looking at some of the price action, we have broken out of some key levels and areas, so in this respect, 'end of days' means an end to the uptrend which has seen the EUR rate pushing back through 1.1500, while the commodity currencies also look to have set a longer term low in place. What is doesn't mean - necessarily - is that the USD is going to implode, though the past week has seemed that way! 

Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Headed For The Crapper?

It’s no secret the plumbers at the Fed are feverishly devising a way to unwind their $4.5 trillion balance sheet with officials claiming this will nary elicit an inkling of a disturbance in the markets they’ve coddled all these years. But one must wonder, at the timing, at the ostensive optics, if nothing else...Unless, that is, the motivations of shrinkage are less than magnanimous and dare one say, immoral.

One Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

The establishment will get its revenge on Trump. The Federal Reserve is its weapon of choice.

What Wage Inflation? Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Plunges To Weakest In 30 Months

Despite all the excitement and media hype that wage growth is finally upon us and the green shoots of escape velocity recovery are here, thanks to Obama and Yellen, the facts are different. Real average weekly earnings rose just 0.2% year-over-year in December - the weakest growth since June 2014 (and November's gains were revised lower).

Chanos Fears Trump's "Unmet Expectations", Warns Investors To "Rethink Almost Everything In Your Life"

"If we’re in one of those periods now, if 2016 is like 1932 or 1979 - then you not only have to change your portfolio, you have to change your lifestyle. That’s one of the things we’ve been telling clients. If this is a major shift to populism, nationalism, greater state involvement, and less globalism, then you really have to rethink almost everything in your life."

Merkel Facing Humiliation, Political Defeat In Her Home State On Sunday

Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats, hit by a series of regional election defeats this year, face further losses in a vote in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - the home state of Angela Merkel - on Sunday where if the latest polls are right, Merkel is set to suffer a humiliating defeat.

Musical Chairs

Economics is a bit like musical chairs. In a recession, the economy takes a hit and there are some casualties. Some players fail to get a chair in time and are out of the game. The game then goes on without them. The economy eventually recovers. But a depression is a different game entirely...

Housing Bubble 1.0 Vs. Housing Bubble 2.0 - The Culprit Is "Shadow Demand"... Again!

"If 2006 was a known bubble with housing prices at “X”, affordability never better, easy availability of credit, unemployment in the 4%’s, total workforce at record highs, and growing wages, then what do you call today with house prices at X+ 5% to 20%, worse affordability and credit, higher unemployment, weakening total workforce, and shrinking wages? Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than “X”."

The True State Of The US Consumer: All Six Retail Companies Reporting April Comp Sales Missed

If one looks at the state of retail companies reporting same-store sales today, a troubling picture emerges about both the US economy and the US consumer emerges. As Bloomberg notes, each of six companies, among which L Brands, Zumiez, The Buckle, Costco, The Cato Corporation and Fred's - that reported April comparable sales missed estimates compiled by Retail Metrics.