Green Shoots

Pass this on to people who get their news from the talking heads on tv . . .

Green shoots are no longer producing bullish signals for the stock market. At best, they are a mixed signal. On yesterday’s Consumer Confidence upside surprise, the high tick for the day was at exactly on the announcement at 9:00 am. The market “gets it” that the green shoots have been but a temporary elixir for the consumer. What now, brown cow that the Clunkers program ended Aug 24 and the new homeowner tax credit has largely been used up (those that wanted to take advantage of the tax credit would have done so by July for the new school year).

"In literature, it is difficult to find a protagonist more endearing, clever and flawed than Sherlock Holmes. Peerless in his attention to detail and his limitless powers of perception, what appears clear cut and evident to his trained senses bewilders those of lesser skills. His foil, Dr. Watson, his counterpart at Scotland Yard, the plodding Inspector Lestrade, and his arch enemy Professor Moriarty all wither in the face of Holmes’ masterful powers of logic and deduction. That said, I believe even the formidable Mr. Holmes would have a problem figuring out the truth behind the current economic state of affairs."

Whoever is buying up stock today, sure ain't reading Moody's most recent REAL Commercial Property Price Index Report. Then again, robots aren't paid to read, they're paid to lead.

- CRE falls 7.6% in one month (May), on top of the 8.6% decrease for the previous month.

- Now -28.5% YOY and -34.8% from peak (October 2007).

- Transaction volume slows to its lowest level yet.

eLuxury is finished - another example of the retail collapse starting to reach ever higher into the "aspirational" segment.

eLuxury is finished - another example of the retail collapse starting to reach ever higher into the "aspirational" segment.

eLuxury is finished - another example of the retail collapse starting to reach ever higher into the "aspirational" segment.

eLuxury is finished - another example of the retail collapse starting to reach ever higher into the "aspirational" segment.

Good, succinct obit of the Green Shoots period compliments of Rosie's headline points from his morning piece.

Era of the Green Shoots is Over

Good, succinct obit of the Green Shoots period compliments of Rosie's headline points from his morning piece.

JPM's Michael Cembalest with a terrific compare and contrast between the current economic situation and that of the 70's. Useful to not that no matter how many contrasts on draw to previous major recessions, what we are living through now is so much more than a simple manufacturing recession as Rosie keeps pounding the table. Anyone who believes that the impact from the unwind of 50 years of progressively cheaper and pervasive credit will be resolved within a 1 year of the Lehman bankruptcy is either hopelessly naive, or ideologically conflicted, or both.
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JPM's Michael Cembalest with a terrific compare and contrast between the current economic situation and that of the 70's. Useful to not that no matter how many contrasts on draw to previous major recessions, what we are living through now is so much more than a simple manufacturing recession as Rosie keeps pounding the table. Anyone who believes that the impact from the unwind of 50 years of progressively cheaper and pervasive credit will be resolved within a 1 year of the Lehman bankruptcy is either hopelessly naive, or ideologically conflicted, or both.
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Til Schuermann, VP of Financial Intermediation at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is testifying today on issues in Commercial Real Estate, and his prepared remarks essentially drown the prospect of green shoots in the context of CRE.

Submitted by John Bougearel of Structural Logic

Structural Logic 5.22.09 -

Retail sales fall 0.4% in April (0.5% ex autos), second straight monthly decline. Analyst consensus was 0.1% gain. Oops.