Greenlight

Why Gundlach Thinks It's Going To Get Worse, And Why He Is "Pretty Sure That Trump Will Win"

"What is really happening here is that there’s massive technological change, and big changes almost always lead to political instability. People who benefit from the old construct are loath to see it change, because they don’t want to lose their power and economic advantage. And so they dig their heels in even harder. That’s what we’re seeing in Britain right now. People who remember the good old days when they had factory jobs and made a good living—that’s been taken away, and they want to do something about it."

The Top 100 Hedge Funds Of 2016 According To Barron's

Here is the table of the Top 100 best performing hedge funds of 2016 ranked by their 3-year compound return, with an average return of 16.98% (ranging from 30% to 12%), outperforming the S&P's 3 year return of 15.13%.

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge

Following the latest set of global economic news, most notably a mediocre set of Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs, coupled with a mix of lackluster European manufacturing reports and an abysmal Japanese PMI, European, Asian stocks and U.S. stock index futures have continued yesterday's losses. Oil slips for 4th day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. The biggest winner was the Yen, rising 1%, with the USDJPY tumbling overnight and pushing both the Nikkei 1.6% lower and weighing on US futures.

What The Biggest Hedge Funds Did In Q1: The Full 13-F Summary

While far less attention is being paid to hedge fund 13F filings, which show a stale representation of equity long stakes among the hedge fund community as of 45 days prior, than in years gone by as a result of increasingly poor performance by the 2 and 20 crowd, they still remain closely watched source of investment ideas but mostly to find out what the new cluster ideas and hedge fund hotel stocks are at any given moment. Here are the highlights from the latest round of 13F filings.

China's Credit Growth Grinds To A Screeching Halt: Why This Is Very Important

The biggest concern for China, and the world, is that now that China's credit impulse is gone, it means that the it is only a matter of time before the impetus behind Chinese, and global growth, evaporates as per the timeline persented in the following Goldman chart, which explained the surge in Q1 economic activity, and which now anticipates a steep slowdown in the second and subsequent quarters unless China manages to stoke its unsustainable credit growth once again.

Wall Street Is Falling Off A Cliff (And The Bottom Is A Long Way Down)

For the past 50 or so years, the quickest way for a sharp young sociopath to get rich has been to join an investment bank or hedge fund. The former were riding a “regulatory capture” gravy train that became ever-more-lucrative as new government agencies morphed into subsidiaries of Wall Street. Said another way, when financial assets are being artificially inflated by excessive liquidity, it’s easy to make money by shuffling this ever-appreciating inventory back and forth, and to look very smart while doing so. But those days are ending with a bang...

As The Sohn Conference Begins, This Is How Last Year's Hedge Fund Picks Did

Moments ago, the 2016 edition of the Sohn Investment Conference started, a feeding frenzy for traders and hedge fund managers such as Gundlach, Einhorn and Chanos who descend on this popular annual "round table" to pitch their best and worst ideas. As always, the moment a company's name is mentioned in a bullish or bearish context, its stock is sure to surge or slump, as the headline-hungry algos immediate pounce in the current reactionary market environment. But is following the advice of these hedge fund gurus such a good idea? 

"Unexpected" Australian Rate Cut To Record Low Unleashes FX Havoc, Global "Risk Off"

Overnight Australia finally admitted it has succumbed to the global economic weakness plaguing the rest of the world when in a "surprise" move, Australia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in a year to a record low and left the door open for further easing to counter a wave of disinflation that’s swept over the developed world. The move sent the local currency tumbling and local stocks climbing. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens and his board lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent Tuesday, a move predicted by just 12 of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The announcement has, not surprisingly unleashed havoc across FX markets and broadly pushed global mood into its latest "risk off" phase.

Every Time This Has Happened, A Recession Followed

As of today, we now have three consecutive quarters of tightening lending standards. In fact, based on the latest survey, net lending standards tightened even more than during Q4 as shown in the chart below, and are now the tightest on net since the financial crisis. Needless to say, if a recession and a default cycle has always followed two quarters of tighter lending conditions, three quarters does not make it better.

"It Has Been A While Since We’ve Had A Profitable Quarter To Report" - Einhorn's First Quarter Letter

"It has been a while since we’ve had a profitable quarter to report. Though we would like to make it a habit, trying to manage for quarterly  results is really not our philosophy. We think one of our advantages is the ability to be more patient than others, especially as investment horizons appear to be getting shorter.... the Fed’s “data dependency” doesn’t appear to relate to employment, which continues to improve, or core inflation, which is now running above its 2% target. We believe the increasingly adventurous monetary policy is bullish for gold."

Stocks To Reopen In The Green For 2016 After Crude, USDJPY Rebound

In the final day of the week, it has again been a story of currencies and commodities setting stock prices, however instead of yesterday's Yen surge which slammed the USDJPY as low as 107.67 and led to a global tumble in equities, and crude slide, today has been a mirror imoage after a modest FX short squeeze, which sent the Yen pair as high as 109.1, before easing back to the 108.80 range. This, coupled with a 3.5% bounce in WTI, which is back up to $38.54 and up 4.9% on the week as speculation has returned that Russia and OPEC members can reach a production freeze deal on April 17, led to a global stock rebound which will see the S&P open back in the green for 2016.

Japan Stocks Plunge; Europe, U.S. Futures, Oil Lower Ahead Of Payrolls

For Japan, the post "Shanghai Summit" world is turning ugly, fast, because as a result of the sliding dollar, a key demand of China which has been delighted by the recent dovish words and actions of Janet Yellen, both Japan's and Europe's stock markets have been sacrificed at the whims of their suddenly soaring currencies. Which is why when Japanese stocks tumbled the most in 7 weeks, sinking 3.5%, to a one month low of 16,164 (after the Yen continued strengthening and the Tankan confidence index plunged to a 3 year low) it was anything but an April fool's joke to both local traders.