Greenlight

Moments ago the following headline flashed across the Bloomberg terminal:

• Sentiment Improves Ahead of Weekend Eurogroup Meeting

All one can do here is laugh - we can discuss how this is simply the latest idiotic case of perpetual deja vu, where a broke continent sits down, orders catering service, only to realizes it is broker than before, but not before scheduling its next meeting, while Jean-Claude Juncker utters some more lies... or we can simply once again present David Einhorn's brilliant summation of the sequence of motions that the USS Troikatanic goes through every single time as it achieves absolutely nothing.

Gene Arensberg of the Got Gold Report says that the COT data “suggests that dips for gold and silver should be exceedingly well bid just ahead.  Indeed, the structure of the COT is about as bullish as we have seen it for silver futures.” The supply demand fundamentals remain very sound with gold demand expected to exceed supply again this year, according to the World Gold Council who have said that gold has bottomed or close to bottoming. Gold will extend annual gains for a 12th year as bullion is “near” a bottom and demand will keep exceeding mine output, according to the World Gold Council. Mine production will grow 3% this year from last year’s 2,800 metric tons, while demand may be unchanged or slightly lower from a record 4,400 tons, said Marcus Grubb, managing director of the WGC in an Bloomberg interview in Tokyo. Mine supplies will remain in a deficit “for a foreseeable future,” Grubb said.  Bullion is “near to the bottom at current prices, indicating gold will move back up again,” he said. Recycling has risen to make up for the gap between demand and mine output, he said.  “Some of the drivers of the increase in demand are structured, central banks for example, the rise of Chinese demand and the wealth increase in Asia, including India and China as well as smaller economies,” he said. Central banks have increased gold purchases on concern about the dollar, the euro and the sovereign debts, Grubb said. The banks’ net purchases last year were the most since 1964. In 2010, they turned to a net buyer for the first time in 15 years.

In Greenlight's latest letter we learn that "At quarter end, the largest disclosed long positions in the Partnerships were Apple, Arkema, General Motors, gold and Seagate Technology. The Partnerships had an average exposure of 98% long and 62% short." Also, we find a spirited defense of AAPL (if one which breaks no real new ground with the ever louder recent criticisms of the company), some thoughts on STX, a discussion on the Yen, some of the firm's profitable shorts, including DMND, GMCR, and JOE, but most delightful is this scathing attack on old crony capitalist, TBTF money bags himself...

UPDATE: Sell-off stalled for now as S&P caught up with risk-asset's early warning for now.

S&P 500 Futures are picking up speed to the downside on rising volume which takes it back to its 50DMA (as we note AAPL has also broken its 50DMA intraday now). Has the market finally grasped that in order for the Fed to greenlight QE stocks have.to.drop and that frontrunning QE by constantly buying stocks ahead of the ramp simply will not work? We'll know soon enough.

Pop quiz: What is the common theme among the following "best of breed" 2 and 20 (at least) hedge funds, whose YTD performance is presented below?

No. No way. If we have to go through one more year of endlessly repetitive and utterly worthless European bullshit, rumors, headlines, and other subterfuge whose only point is to extend and pretend the fact that Europe is utterly broke, just so the effete Greek citizens can pretend they give a rat's ass about their independence, when in reality they will gladly pay 80% of their salary to keep European banks solvent simply to retain the illusion that their retirement funds are still worth more than diddly squat, we are done.

The fine folks at Street of Walls have been kind enough to provide us with their latest 13F breakdown which looks at the position changes across America's 30 largest and most important hedge funds. While we have already focused on some of the more entertaining ones, and tracked the recent rush back into gold, those curious about what the latest hedge fund hotel stocks are (aside from Apple of course) are encouraged to peruse the following exhaustive report.

My favorite football introductory book is an out-of-print book by Joe Namath, FOOTBALL for Young Players and Parents.  You may enjoy my favorite lines as you get in the mood for the Super Bowl

• BOJ Should Be Allowed $643 Billion Fund to Buy Foreign Bonds, Iwata Says (Bloomberg)
• Banks Hoarding ECB Cash May Double Company Defaults (Bloomberg)
• China Police Open Fire on Tibetans as Protests Spread (Bloomberg)
• Sarkozy Presidential Rival Hollande Would Lower Retirement Age, Lift Taxes (Bloomberg)
• IMF takes tougher stance over Greek debt (FT)
• Iran threatens to act first on EU embargo (FT)
• PM says ‘no complacency’ on economy (FT)
• George Soros: How to pull Italy and Spain back from the edge (FT)
• Japan's NEC to slash 10,000 jobs (Reuters)
• Obama Planning Corporate Tax Overhaul (Bloomberg)

Anyone wondering why FSLR just jumped, it is because as was just made known, David Einhorn's Greenlight has decided to close its FSLR position, after bleeding that particular corpse dry. "Our largest winner by far was our short of First Solar (FSLR) which fell from $130.14 to $33.76 paper share and was the worst performing stock in the S&P 500." Einhorn also announces that he was among the "evil" hedge funds who dared to provide market clearing transparency and buy CDS on insolvent European governments: "We also did well investing in various credit default swaps on European sovereign debt." As for losers, Einhorn and Kyle Bass can commiserate: "For the second year in a row, our biggest loss came from positions designed to capitalize on eventual weakening of the Yen." He summarizes the global economic environment as follows: "The global environment is very complicated. On the one hand the Federal Reserve has taken a much-needed break from quantitative easing (at least for the moment). Accordingly, inflation in oil and food has abated, providing relief to the US economy. Bearish forecasts that the US was headed back into recession proved wrong for the third time since the end of the last recession. On the other hand, Asia appears to be in much worse shape than it was at this time last year and could be a drag on the world economy going forward. Very few people trust any of the economic data coming out of China, making it difficult to gauge the situation there. Some of the smartest people we know have very dim views. The Chinese have been a leading growth engine for the last two decades and are largely credit with leading the world out of the recession in 2009. A change in their economic circumstances could really upend things." Yet the best thing is his summary of the current investing climate in our utterly and hopelessly reactionary broken markets.

Well that didn't take long. Just over two months after Einhorn's Greenlight bought a stake in Yahoo, he has now dumped the full amount. From his just issued letter to clients: "The Partnership bought Yahoo! (YHOO) earlier this year based on a sum of the parts analysis, which included putting substantial value on its Chinese assets. Shortly after the purchase, the value of the Chinese assets came into doubt as the CEO of the Chinese unit hived-off a valuable subsidiary into a corporation that he personally controls. From there, the finger pointing started in every direction. This wasn't what we signed up for. We exited with a modest loss." Well, the whole was less than the sum of the parts in this case. Oops. For this another modest gains and losses, but mostly losses explaining why the fund is down 5% YTD, read the full letter below.

Thanks to the guys at Santangel's Review for transcribing David Einhorn's presentation to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. Topics covered include the investment banks' business model, rating agencies and FAS 157 (mark to market accounting).

Update: the Einhorn-Ackman dynamic duo does the groupthink tango, as Ackman joins Einhorn in bashing rating agencies. Tomorrow's MCO open will be a bloodbath

It's official: Moody's is the next Lehman. The ratings agency just received the kiss of death after David Einhorn announced he is short the name at the Ira Sohn conference (we are not sure how this is news...Einhorn has repeatedly noted his hatred of the rating agency). With numerous other adverse catalysts, such as the pending Wells Notice, as well as the fact that its business model is conflicted is obsolete, this was the straw that broke the camel's back. And since we are confident that uber honest capitalist Waren Buffett is by now completely out of the name, replaced presumably with the same idiot middle east sovereign wealth money that just gulped up the Treasury's Citi stake, there won't be too many tears wept at its funeral. RIP Moody's.

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which has been investigating whether any companies may have contributed to its bankruptcy, issued at least five subpoenas to investment firms and hedge funds including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., SAC Capital Advisors LP, Greenlight Capital Inc. and Citadel Investment Group LLC, according to court filings. Bankrupt Lehman is conducting its own probes separately from the 2,200-page report by examiner Anton Valukas that was published on March 11.

"2008 was the first year that we lost money since we opened our doors in May 1996. We are disappointed about our 2008 result, and we are sure you are as well."
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"We don't know where the bottom will be and don't want to bet the farm on guessing, so we did our buying with restraint."
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All this, and a very personal vendetta with the German authorities on how the Volkswagen bandwagon could have been allowed to lose money, you can read here.