Gross Domestic Product
Former Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist: "Don't Listen To The Ruling Elite, The World Economy Is In Real Trouble"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/28/2016 14:00 -0400
"Don't listen to the ruling elite," warns former Morgan Stanley Asian Economist, Andy Xie, "the world economy is on the cusp of a prolonged period of stagnation and instability." Xie points out that the ruling elite is blaming it on people seeing things (skeptic and fiction peddlers), and that "their strategy is to change people’s psychology." Unfortunately for them he concludes, "the world is catching fire and that fire will eventually reach their Davos chalets."
The IMF wants debt relief now, but Germany wants the IMF to hold off until Merkel wins reelection. Meanwhile, the Greek depression resumes. These tax hikes are insane. The key question remains: Is the IMF bluffing about debt relief or not?
Another week of volatility, but with no real resolution to the burning question of “where do we go next?”
The central bank already missed the “window of opportunity” for normalizing rates in a manner that doesn’t hamper the recovery. While the big news for the market was the release of the April 27th FOMC minutes which once again suggested the Federal Reserve may be on a path to hike rates sooner rather than later. The reality is simple, with the markets hovering on critical support, a Presidential election just around the corner and no real evidence of economic recovery, the likelihood of a rate hike in June is approaching zero.
What do financing your retirement as well as finding affordable healthcare and the possibility of losing your job all have in common with each other?
- Stocks sag as U.S. rate rise expectations revive (Reuters)
- Clinton, Sanders hit final stretch of nominating contest (Reuters)
- Bernie Sanders Wins in Oregon, But He Needed Kentucky, Too (NBC)
- Clinton less than 100 delegates from nomination (The Hill)
- Trump needs 66 delegates to officially clinch nomination (The Hill)
- Japan GDP Rebound Not Enough to Stave Off Stimulus (WSJ)
There is a growing fear in financial and monetary circles that there is something deeply wrong with the global economy. Publicly, officials and practitioners alike have become confused by policy failures, and privately, occasionally even downright pessimistic, at a loss to see a statist solution. It is hardly exaggerating to say there is a growing feeling of impending doom. In short, growing evidence of price inflation and stagnant production can be expected to materially increase the risk of a global banking and currency meltdown. The best escape-route is ownership of anything other than purely financial assets and fiat currency deposits. No wonder the price of gold, which is the soundest of moneys, appears to have entered a new bull market.
Perhaps the world will have to wait it out to finally be graced with leaders who are willing to stand by their convictions and make hard, maybe even unpopular, choices. Such leaders might have to risk sacrificing everything political to be crowned the next true champions of conviction, giving us all a shot at a once again storied fate. Where does that leave us? Apparently angry. Very, very angry.
Heard the one about the guy that threw his boomerang only to see it come swinging and swishing its way through the air and knocking him out?
China is the latest in a growing line of “command and control” economies that have risen to prominence, captured the imagination of people who find free markets too messy for comfort, and then blown up when it turns out that dictators have no idea how to allocate capital.
In the wake of an IMF threat to back out of the Troika deal with Greece, Germany blinked under the IMF pressure. Well, sort of.
After some pointless debate, Greece promised to do even more of what has not worked at all in the past 5 years just to access some more European "bailout" money, the bulk of which will promptly be used to repay (after some more posturing by the Eurogroup in the coming weeks) maturing debt, held by the ECB.
GDP growth has only two basic components: growth in productivity and growth in the workforce size. That’s it. There are two and only two ways you can grow an economy: increase the (working-age) population or productivity. There is no magic fairy dust you can sprinkle on an economy to make it grow.. and the following rather disconcerting charts showing the continuing decline in productivity and major shifts in demographics that are worsening the situation.
The problem is that limiting financialization will implode the system. The status quo now depends on financialization for its profits and taxes, and so ripping the heart out of financial skims and scams will also rip the heart out of the entire status quo. And so 95% of us will continue to get poorer, no matter who's in office.
The ECB is effectively out of viable options. The global banking crisis is back.