• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...

Gross Domestic Product

Tyler Durden's picture

The Most Devious Liars In The Room





There were a few different stories coming out over the last few days that reveal the true nature of government and the apparatchiks who use disinformation, devious machinations, fraudulent accounting, and taxpayer money to cover up their criminality, lies, and the true state of the American economy. The use of government accounting tricks to obscure the truth about our dire financial straits is designed to keep the masses sedated and confused.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

S&P Futures Spike Back Over 2100 On Central Banks, Yen Carry Levitation, China Bull Market





For those eager to cut to the chase and curious if overnight we have had another standard USDJPY ramp levitating US equity futures on low volume, the answer is yes. And since the USDJPY carry was patient enough, it managed to trigger the 2100 ES stops and as of this moment the futures were comfortably on the politically-correct side of 2100.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 4





  • Euro zone growth weak in October, China services rally (Reuters)
  • Stocks Rise With European Bonds on Stimulus Outlook; Euro Falls (BBG)
  • VW Sinks Deeper Into Crisis as Scandal Spreads to More Cars (BBG)
  • Republicans ask IRS to audit Clinton charity's finances (Reuters)
  • PBOC Inadvertently Boosts Stocks With Dated Zhou Comments (BBG)
  • As China’s Economy Slows, Consumers Pick Up Some of the Slack (WSJ)
  • Plane crashes in South Sudan, witnesses say dozens killed (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Essence Of Modern Economics: Garbage In, Garbage Out





The fundamental problem facing today’s economy is the flagrant contempt by governments the world over for the free exchange of goods and services and private stewardship of property. Perhaps it is power and control governments are after. Maybe they believe they are improving the economy and making the world a better place for all. No one really knows for sure. But what is lucidly clear is the muddled disorder modern day economic policies have wrought upon us.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"The Output Gap Appears Closed" - The Fed's Model Just Confirmed A December Rate Hike





Late on Friday afternoon, after recording its biggest monthly points gain in history, the S&P500 unexpectedly took a surprising swoon lower to close trading well in the red. This chart may be the reason why.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks, Symmetry, & A Significant Threat To The Global Economy





Central banks can’t afford a big correction to take place as it goes counter to their mandate, a stable growing economy, hence they interfere every single time a correction of size is about to unfold. And any threat to the global economy must be prevented. Now that fiscal year end mark-ups are over for many funds buyers have to prove how committed they are to driving markets higher. Price will ultimately confirm how this will play out, but altogether this chart is an amazing construct of symmetry and, as fans of structures and symmetry, it certainly has our attention. We can’t recall ever seeing such a precise structure.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Yes, A New Crisis is Coming - And Here's Why





The weakness seen in world economic activity is partly the result of the lack of a real purge of the financial system in 2008. It has become unimaginable to let entire parts of the system collapse, and the titling of some financial institutions as “systemic” is part of this logic. Policymakers attempting to keep unhealthy economic and financial institutions alive are making a mistake. The very essence of capitalism lies in the process of creative destruction. What we see here is not a way out of the crisis. Instead, we are on the edge of a new financial disaster.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 23





  • China's central bank cuts rates for sixth time since November (Reuters)
  • Global stocks hit two-month high on dovish Draghi message (Reuters)
  • $6.5 Billion in Energy Writedowns and We're Just Getting Started (BBG)
  • Alphabet, formerly Google, sets share buyback, shares jump (Reuters)
  • Hurricane Patricia, Stronger Than Katrina, Nears Mexico (BBG)
  • TVA Cleared to Start First New U.S. Nuclear Power Plant in Nearly 20 Years (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Oil Prices Still Not Low Enough To Fix The Markets





Current oil prices are simply not low enough to stop over-production. Unless external investment capital is curtailed and producers learn to live within cash flow, a production surplus and low oil prices will persist for years.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Good News" - China GDP Beats Expectation Leaving Fed 'Relieved', Stocks Disappointed





AsiaPac stocks were generally lower heading into the all-important Chinese macro data (S&P -6pts, Japan -0.7%, China -0.2%) as JPY erased Friday's ramp and crude dropped back below $47. The PBOC left the Onshore Yuan fix practically unchanged (following Friday's significant devaluation). Then the data hit... China GDP beat expectations (printing 6.9% YoY vs 6.8% exp) but is still the lowest growth since Q1 2009. Industrial Production missed (printing 5.7% YoY vs 6.0% exp). Retail Sales beat (10.9% YoY vs 10.8% exp). The initial reaction was kneejerk buying in USDJPY and stocks but that is fading as "good news" will relieve The Fed's angst over growth...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Getting History Right - Saving Capitalism From Monetary Mismanagement





Capitalism isn’t – wasn’t – the problem. The culprit instead was unsound finance and deeply flawed monetary management. In short, Capitalism cannot function effectively within a backdrop of unfettered cheap finance. Things appear miraculous during the boom, and then the bust discombobulates. Contemporary central bank rate administration essentially abandoned the self-adjusting and regulating market system for determining the price of finance – so fundamental to Capitalism.

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

There Will Be Blood – Part V





Hedge fund manager wonders: what happens to the petrodollar as the "sub-prime of this decade" goes up in flames?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank Boosts German GDP Forecast Due To "Surge In Immigration"





As the German refugee crisis has now dragged down not only Merkel, whose popularity rating just tumbled to a four year low "reflecting growing concern over the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees into Germany, a poll showed on Thursday", but has exposed "free speech" advocate Facebook as merely another government propaganda pawn, Germany has been scrambling to find some silver lining on this scandal. It did just that on Friday, when the bank with the greatest amount of notional derivatives in Europe and the world, Deutsche Bank, raised its German 2016 GDP forecast "because the heavy influx of migrants would increase consumption as much as half a percentage point."

 
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