• Pivotfarm
    04/20/2014 - 17:08
    As the audience went from laughter to applause, Vladimir Putin responded to the question that he had just read out on a televised debate in Russia. What was the question?

Head and Shoulders

Tyler Durden's picture

Chart Of "The US Recovery": Third Time Is The Charm, Or Head And Shoulders Time?





The following chart from Bank of America captures the past three years of American "recovery" quite starkly: the US economy, as measured by the ISM  has so far not double but triple dipped, and the result would have been far more pronounced had the Fed not stepped in after each of the prior two local maxima and injected trillions into the economy. Following peaks in mid 2010 and early 2011, we are "there" again - how long until the Fed has to jump in? And would it have already done so if it wasn't an election year? Which brings us to our question: third time is the charm? Or head and shoulders?

 


Reggie Middleton's picture

Apple's iPad Is Losing Market Share And Profit Margin As Apple Hits All Time High





Listen up you Muppets!!!!! I'm rehearsing from my Goldman Interview, applying for retail stock broker, pushing Apple inventory :-)

 


Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

It's My Parity, and I'll Cry If I Want To





I believe the EUR/USD is going to approach parity within the next year. All the nonsense we've seen in Europe over the past couple of years is going to start giving way to reality, and even with Helicopter Ben's efforts to devalue the US dollar, the Euro is going to do a better job pushing its way down.

 


ilene's picture

Could Oil Prices Intensify a Pending S&P Selloff?





The bullishness is rather interesting considering the notable headwinds that exist in the European sovereign debt markets, the geopolitical risk seen in light sweet crude oil futures, and the potential for a recession to play out in Europe.

 


Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Nothing’s Changed Edition)





Against this highly deflationary backdrop, the one primary prop for the markets is hope of more juice/credit from the world Central Banks. However, even that prop is losing its strength: the gains of the last coordinated Central Bank intervention lasted just a few weeks.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Morgan Stanley On Why The Gig Is Up





"What we have on our hands is a good old fashioned quagmire" is how Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sets up his surprisingly non-sheep-like perspective on the troubles that US equity investors may be about to face. Expanding on MS's bearish strategic (fundamental) forecast, that we discussed earlier in the week, Wilson combines the 'liquidity vs negative-real-rate' thesis (that the Fed's liquidity is perhaps no longer 'good' for stocks) with his own views on ECRI's weakness (very 2008-like in relation to ECO surprises), household debt deleveraging (more and longer), how much QE3 is already priced in and what will its effect be when it comes (less and less positive in nominal and real terms), investor sentiment (very bullish), long-term technicals (weak breadth), and short-term earnings expectations (deteriorating and weighted to 'weak' financials to end with the pragmatic realist perspective that perhaps 'the gig is up'.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: A Glimpse Into The Future Of The Stock Market And Dollar





A lot of technical analysts and financial pundits are expecting a standard-issue Santa Claus Rally once a "solution" to Europe's debt crisis magically appears. There will be no such magical solution for the simple reason the problems are intrinsic to the euro, the Eurozone's immense debts and the structure of the E.U. itself. The accident has finally happened, and it's called the euro/European debt crisis. I see a lot of analysts trying to torture a Bullish interpretation out of the charts, so let's take a "nothing fancy" chart of the broad-based S&P 500 with five basic TA tools: Bollinger Bands to measure volatility, relative strength (RSI), MACD (moving average convergence-divergence), stochastics and volume. If we use Technical Analysis 101 (basic version), a number of things quickly pop out of this chart--and none of them are remotely bullish.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Attention Passengers on Global Equity Flight 2011: Assume Crash Positions





 

I know, I know, retail sales are up so everything's wunnerful, but the captain of Global Equities Flight 2011 just instructed the passengers to assume crash positions. It seems the captain has the distinct advantage of being able to see what's just ahead, not to mention being able to monitor the engines and fuel levels. (Hmm, did the starboard engine just conk out? Not good....). Levity aside, there are unnerving similarities between the present and the pre-crash 2008 equities market. Rather than get distracted with how much low-quality crap gets sold at loss-leader prices on November 25, we might be better served to focus on the U.S. dollar. As everyone knows, equities and the buck have been on a see-saw for a long time. If the dollar rises, equities drop. If the dollar rises a lot--for any reason, or no reason, it doesn't matter-- then equities crash. If the euro weakens, the dollar rises. If the dollar rises, equities weaken. If there is anything else to know about the current equity market, how much can it possibly be worth? He who sells first sells best. Something to ponder in the weeks ahead.

 


Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Graham Summers Weekly Market Forecast (the Makings of a Top Edition)





It is clear as day that the EU in its current form is finished. I’ve been saying this for months, but now even the mainstream media is picking up on rumblings that Germany wants to exit the Euro or at least restructure the entire EU.

 


ilene's picture

How to Trade This Headline Driven Stock Market





This is a tough market to trade in, and I don’t want to get chopped around or do any heavy lifting.

 


Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Crash Time Edition)






Yes, the GREAT COLLAPSE has begun. The markets will be going to new lows (below the March 2009 lows) in the coming months. We're also going to be seeing major banks go under, market crashes, food shortages, government shutdowns, and SYSTEMIC FAILURE.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Changing Risk Perceptions Across Multiple Asset Classes





Bottom line this market is very dangerous right now . As witnessed in August when the SPX appeared "oversold" it still managed to sell off another 200 points and take out support levels as if they never existed. The most recent short covering rally has taken away buying pressure and flushed out weak shorts. With leverage still at multi year highs it appears selling pressure remains the bigger risk to equities. Most important though is the diminished threat of the Bernanke put which is analogous to a pick up game between a group of guys on the weekend. The "bears" begin to show an ability to outscore the "bulls" only to see Michael Jordan (the most famous Bull) come in from the sidelines and reverse everything. Perhaps Michael Jordan is sidelined for a while finally or at least limited in his ability to score at will.

 


Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Market Crash? Edition)





I fully believe that we may in fact be on the verge of a Crash in the markets. All the Red Flags are there. Europe’s entire banking system is on the verge of systemic collapse. Take a look at European banks and you’ll see what I mean.

 


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