Head and Shoulders
Peak Theories Research shares their latest technical observations on the gold price chart: "after gold’s trading action over the last week or so, I have come to believe that what we’ve witnessed in gold over the last four months is that complex Head and Shoulders pattern rather than the Diamond Top or any topping pattern as I had pronounced was the case for much of January. Putting such pronouncements aside, if you’re long gold, you may be happy to hear that this pattern fulfilled itself perfectly last Thursday as I show and discuss below. More importantly, however, now that gold has held that fulfillment in what appears to be a strong crux of support for nearly a week now, I am also coming to believe that the volatile trading action of the last four months in gold is more likely than not to produce an uptrend in gold in both the near-term and in the intermediate-term. This last point is in complete contrast to what I thought gold’s technical aspects were telling us in the month of January and this is a significant change of view for me. Put most clearly, I think gold appears as though it is likely to head up in the near-, intermediate- and long-term and all such trading action is consistent with the primary bull market in gold that began in the early part of the last decade."
Inflation is already exploding worldwide, which means paper money in general is going to be worth less and less on its way to worthless. If you think the US is immune to this situation, you're in for a very RUDE surprise in the coming months. Indeed, the Fed’s Hoenic just announced there might even be QE 3… and he’s supposed to be one of the Fed HAWKS!
The heavy price of a “head and shoulders top”. Competition from rising interest rates in emerging markets and record scrapage rates are eating into the prospects for the barbarous relic. So are higher margin rates for traders. Moving out of hard assets into paper ones. Exiting from a one sided trade. (DGZ), (GLL). (GLD).
I've got a bad feeling that the Great Intervention Rally of 2009 - 2011 is about to hit an iceberg. January 2011 is eerily reminiscent of January 2000. Ignoring warning signs of being overheated and overloved, the stock market rose month after month, defying doubters. With 12,000 within one good day's run, the Dow reached 11,908 in the week of January 10, 2000, and then rolled over. The next week it sprinted again for 12,000, hitting 11,834, but alas, the mighty advance was over. The S&P 500 topped out a few months later and then started down a relentless three-year slide. I sense a dislocation coming in global markets.
As gold is currently breaking out courtesy of another concerted take down of the dollar, which has sent futures surging, and the EURCHF to a fresh all time, and very ominous, low, FMX Connect provides some insight on how to trade the current gold bounce.
In closing, keep your eyes glued to the Euro. The markets seem to view the Irish bailout as a “positive” for the currency. If this view results in the European currency breaking above 37.5, then the inflation trade is back on with a vengeance and the US Dollar could potentially be in SERIOUS trouble.
Q&A: An In-Depth Look At The Anatomy Of The Current Supply/Demand Imbalance Propelling Equities HigherSubmitted by MatrixAnalytix on 11/04/2010 11:41 -0400
Low supply+ very high demand = higher prices
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When the Fed announced that it would issue its QE lite program in mid-August, the world took this to indicate that QE 2 was definitely coming.
Indeed, virtually EVERYTHING occurring in the financial markets right now can be traced to the view that the US Federal Reserve has a $1 trillion+ QE 2 program on deck. Nowhere is this clearer than the US Dollar.
Most if not at all traders, be they day, swing or buy and holders have come across technical analysis. You know what I’m talking about! Those squiggly lines all the gurus seem to have on their charts! They consist of patterns like the famous ‘Head and Shoulders’, age old equations seen across nature like ‘Fibonacci’, even historic wave movements measured by ‘Elliott Wave’.
Last week I forecast that we would see a reversal in stocks. The market did indeed show signs of breaking down on Wednesday and Thursday, however, the Fed’s juice managed to keep stocks afloat and closing in the green for the week. All told, the Fed injected more than $10 billion into the market directly via its three Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) pumps. However, Bailout Ben wasn’t content with mere open market juicing, so he pumped another $10 billion into the system “behind the scenes.”
BofA's chief technical research analyst Mary Ann Bartels has released a note in which she demonstrates the bullish and bearish technicals currently in the market (although with the only thing mattering anymore is when and how big any given Fed permanent open market operation will be, we question the utility of technicals even). While Bartels is still holding on the a call for a "deeper equity market correction" while noting the obvious ("The equity market this year has frustrated both the bulls and the bears, and this is likely to continue into year-end, in our view") she points out that the broader market signals are mixed. She points out that "most short-term indicators have generated a sell signal and Net Tab is not oversold. We still need to break and hold above S&P 500 1150 to invalidate a potential head and shoulders distribution top. A test of the July low (1010) is still not ruled out. A break above1150 would point to a test of the April high of 1220." Today's action shows just how hard the market is trying to breach the upside resistance and disprove all the economic fundamentals that unequivocally point to an ongoing and accelerating deterioration in the economy. Below are the key charts supporting Bartels' call.
"The market stands on the banks of the Rubicon. The technical picture is unusually complex. There are various aspects that are normally associated with topping patterns. Yesterday, it was announced by the American Association of Individual Investors that the percentage of bullish investors had suddenly soared to 51%. That’s usually a big warning signal. Also, on the shelf for the bears remain the series of Hindenburg Omens and the recent VIX sell signal. The bulls are working on an inverse head and shoulders in the S&P. Interestingly, the “neckline” is very near the 1131/1133 level that marks the top of the three month trading range. Thus, a move above that level could suggest a new up-leg in the S&P with a target count of about 1240. That set-up leads traders to believe that a move up through that band might spark a frenzy of algorithmic short covering. That would certify the importance and validity of a breakout." - Art Cashin
Last week I forecast that the stock market would likely rally to test its 200-DMA. We didn’t quite get there, but that’s largely due to the fact that no one was actively trading the market last week.
Indeed, thanks to a holiday week that entailed both Labor Day and Rosh Shoshanna, market volume was truly abysmal. In fact, last week saw even lower market volume than during April 2010 top, which should give you an idea of just how few participants were involved:
Last week I mentioned that barring any additional intervention (monetary or otherwise) stocks would roll over. That is precisely what happened with the S&P 500 falling to test MAJOR support around 1,040 twice.
We looked about read to fall off a cliff until Friday when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in his speech that the Fed stands ready to do whatever is needed to fight the financial crisis. It wasn’t a direct monetary intervention, but in these desperate times verbal intervention is good enough, and traders gunned the S&P 500 higher back into the gap created by the Monday/Tuesday sell-off.