Hertz

What's Left To Drive The Recovery? Not Much

"These are some serious headwinds, and it’s not clear what offsets them. Could be that the only source of future growth is the government, which means the Fed will soon have to reverse course, cutting interest rates and buying up even more of what used to be known as the free market."

Cadillac Launches First Ever "Vehicle Subscription" Service

With record low interest rates, stretched out financing terms and an insatiable wall street demand for subprime auto securitizations all teaming up to drive record-high auto sales, Cadillac seems to think there is little room for incremental upside in their traditional auto sales/leasing business so they've decided to pursue an alternative business strategy whereby they just sell cars to themselves instead. 

Frontrunning: December 14

  • Countdown to first Fed hike in a year under way, but focus shifting to 2017 (Reuters)
  • What to Expect From the Fed: Decision-Day Guide (BBG)
  • Investors Expect Fed Rate Rise, Seek Clues on Next Step (WSJ)
  • What ceasefire? Aleppo evacuation delayed (Reuters); Aleppo Fighting Resumes Hours After Cease-Fire Deal (WSJ)
  • Too big to fail: China maps out its Trump strategy (Reuters)

With All Eyes On The Fed, Stocks And Crude Slip, Bonds Rise

European stocks slipped from an 11 month high, Asian stocks and S&P futures were flat as caution pervades global markets before the Federal Reserve’s expected interest-rate hike on Wednesday. Treasuries slipped, after reaching the highest level in more than two years. Oil in New York slid to near $52 a barrel after API showed a build in inventories, and currencies of commodity-exporting nations fell. Gold headed for its biggest gain in a week.

Frontrunning: November 9

  • IT'S TRUMP! STUNNING OUTSIDER VICTORY FOR 45TH PRESIDENT (AP)
  • Trump Surges to Stunning Victory (WSJ)
  • Trump takes the White House in stunning upset (Reuters)
  • Trump Pledges to Rebuild America (WSJ)
  • ‘Deplorables’ Rise Up to Reshape America (WSJ)
  • Trump, as Outsider, Broke Every Rule on Road to Victory (WSJ)

Stunned Global Markets Wake Up To President Trump

As it dawned on markets that they had been caught dead wrong for the second time in half a year, first with Brexit and then with the historic election of Donald Trump, their reaction was identical: a slow selloff at first, followed by a furious dump, which led to a limit down halt in NASDAQ and Emini future trading. However, turbulence calmed as investors reassessed the effects of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election.

"Hedge Fund Hotels" Blow Up: September Slams Billionaire Stock Pickers

In August, hedge funds blamed risk-parity funds for their dramatic underperformance. In September, the underperformance continued however this time, with risk-parity funds supposedly buying stocks, one can't blame them. To be sure, some such as Ackman whose 20 million shares of Valeant are hurting badly, will blame the Martin Shkrelis of the world for the biggest biotech tumble in years, but others may have to bite the bullet and admit it is their own lack of ability to come up with alpha in a centrally-planned "market" that is the reason.

The Yellow Cab Bubble Pops: Taxi Medallion Prices Tumble 17% From Last Year's Record Highs

A little over a year ago, we presented a "Yellow" asset, which was "the best performer of the past year." It wasn't gold: it was yellow cab medallions.  As we wrote then, "the best returning asset class traded in the NY Metro area is yellow but doesn't change hands on Wall Street.... over the last 12 months New York City taxi medallions have risen 49% in price, besting the relatively humdrum returns of the S&P 500 (up 21%), the NASDAQ (22%) and the Dow (18%).  Medallions – essentially the right to operate a for-hail taxi in New York City – now trade for as much as $1.3 million, an all-time record."  In retrospect it was also the perfect time to cash out on the "yellow" euphoria. According to the NYT, "the average price of an individual New York City taxi medallion fell to $872,000 in October, down 17 percent from a peak reached in the spring of 2013, according to an analysis of sales data. Previous figures published by the city’s Taxi and Limousine Commission — showing flat prices — appear to have been incorrect, and the commission removed them from its website after an inquiry from The New York Times."

Frontrunning: November 26

  • National Guard, police curb Ferguson unrest as protests swell across U.S. (Reuters)
  • Ferguson Reaction Across U.S. Shows Complex Racial Split (BBG)
  • Democratic senator Schumer: Democrats Screwed Up By Passing Obamacare In 2010 (TPM)
  • Veto threat derails Reid tax deal (Hill)
  • Justice Department Investigating Possible HSBC Leak to Hedge Fund (WSJ)
  • Merkel hits diplomatic dead-end with Putin (Reuters), and yet...
  • Merkel Said to Reject Ukraine NATO Bid as Rousing Tension (BBG)
  • HSBC, Goldman Rigged Metals’ Prices for Years, Suit Says (BBG)

Frontrunning: November 21

  • They go all in: China’s PBOC Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2012 (BBG)
  • And all in-er: ECB's Draghi throws door to quantitative easing wide open as recovery wanes (Reuters)
  • Global Markets Rally: ECB Head Says Central Bank Is Ready to Expand Stimulus Program After China Cuts Rates (WSJ)
  • Obama unveils U.S. immigration reform, setting up fight with Republicans (Reuters)
  • U.S. increasing non-lethal military aid to Ukraine (Reuters)
  • Russia warns U.S. against arms to Ukraine as Biden due in Kiev (Reuters)
  • Ukraine slashed gold holdings in October, Russia added more - IMF (Reuters)
  • Abe Dissolves Japan’s Lower House of Parliament (WSJ)

Frontrunning: November 20

  • Banks Had Unfair Advantage From Commodity Units (Bloomberg)
  • Report Notes Deals Between Goldman, Deutsche and Others Drove Up Aluminum Prices (WSJ)
  • Goldman, Morgan Stanley Commodity Heyday Gone as Units Faulted (BBG) - because when you can no longer manipulate, you move on...
  • Lenders Shift to Help Struggling Student Borrowers (WSJ)
  • Immigrants face major hurdles in signing up to new Obama plan (Reuters)
  • Distressed Debt in China? Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet, Buyers Say (BBG)
  • Banking culture breeds dishonesty, scientific study finds (Reuters)
  • Amazon Robots Get Ready for Christmas (WSJ)

Frontrunning: November 17

  • Scuttled deals worth $580 billion put hedge funds on back foot (Reuters)
  • Mounting Pressure on OPEC Spurs More Wagers on Oil Rally (BBG)
  • It's not just US real estate: Chinese Students at U.S. Universities Jump 75% in Three Years (BBG)
  • Frankfurt Open for Yuan Clearing as Liquidity Rises (BBG)
  • Obama defends healthcare law after adviser criticism (Reuters)
  • Michael Hasenstab Bets Big in Controversial Places (WSJ)
  • Facebook seeks foothold in your office (FT)
  • Russia Seen as Greatest Threat in Poll as Oil Erodes Putin Power (BBG)
  • Falling Oil Prices Test OPEC Unity (WSJ)

Frontrunning: November 11

  • No Sign of Thaw in Obama’s Brief Encounters With Putin (BBG)
  • Japan Lawmakers Prepare for Snap Elections as Abe Mulls Tax (BBG)
  • Global stocks rise, Brent crude hits four-year low (Reuters)
  • U.S., China to Drop Tariffs on Range of Tech Products (WSJ)
  • ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Rule Would Raise Bar for Bank Capital (WSJ) ... and mean even bigger taxpayer bailouts
  • Pot in New York: $100 Ticket. No Charges. No Record. No Nothing (BBG)
  • Microsoft unveils first Lumia smartphone without Nokia name (Reuters)
  • Davos-Man Ackermann Lured to Cyprus Bank by Billionaires (BBG)
  • Alibaba, Apple Talks on Payments Tie-Up Focused on China (WSJ)