Who could have seen this coming? In lesson 101, we 'taught' the HFT idiots that you "Sell API, and Buy DOE Inventories." In lesson 102, we 'taught' the HFT idiots that you then "Sell the DOE Rip." Today, we finish with a big "told you so dance" as we 'taught' the HFT idiots yesterday, no matter what WTI will ramp insanely into the Friday NYMEX close after rig count data. Next we get the insta-dump...
Yesterday we provided the initial template for how to trade oil if you are an HFT idiot. Today we move to the next step in the evolution... In a perfect mirror of last week's trading, Oil dumped on API inventories this week, pumped on DOE inventories (both massively more than expected builds) and then dumped it all back the next day on absolutely no news whatsoever - back to a $48 handle. Tomorrow we have 'rig count' data - which by now we know is entirely irrelevent for now to any changes in supply - but last week created a manic meltup into the NYMEX close... trade accordingly.
While we previously exposed the 1430ET NYMEX Close Ramp trade, it appears a new algo-idiot trade has made an appearance. "Sell API Inventory data, Buy DOE Inventory Data"
There was an expectation that today's receipt by the Troika of the revised Greek "reform proposal" would send risk and the EUR higher, which is probably precisely why nothing has happened so far, and US equity futures are unchanged ahead of what the HFT algos' new attention focus is today, namely Yellen's semi-annual testimony to Congress. As a result, the only thing that has seen notable strength this morning is the USD, which has surged to 119.50 against the Yen, and briefly pushed the EURUSD under 1.1300. which also means that WTI has also gone nowhere overnight and remains under $50. One wonders just what OPEC "rumor" those long crude will leak today.
"Holy Grail Of Trading" Crosses Into The Twilight Zone: HFT Firm Virtu Has Lost Money Once In 1,485 Trading DaysSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/21/2015 13:54 -0500
"The chart below illustrates our daily Adjusted Net Trading Income from January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2014. The overall breadth and diversity of our market making activities, together with our real-time risk management strategy and technology, have enabled us to have only one overall losing trading day during the period depicted, a total of 1,485 trading days..."
After spending the past year deteriorating with each passing month, as global acceleration dipped decidedly in the negative camp, the only thing that kept the Goldman Global Leading Indicator "swirlogram" somewhat buoyant was that "Growth" measured in absolute terms had remained slightly positive. Not any more: according to Goldman's latest global economic read, the world is now officially in contraction, following a sharp plunge in both acceleration and growth in February.
Earlier today, we got a glimpse of precisely how HFTs are now making a mockery of FX "price discovery" when completely independent of any newsflow, Canadian Dollar futures cratered on what is merely the latest of many flash crashes now coming to an FX market near you.
GABRIEL: `WE HAVE REASONS WHY CAN'T SAY YES TO GREEK PROPOSALS'
GERMANY REJECTS GREEK EXTENSION PROPOSAL, GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS
It looks reasonable that investors would not ask for an additional compensation for a source of risk that has limited direct economic bearing for other asset classes.... Such a conclusion would cease to hold, in our view, if Greece were to leave the common currency. Indeed, ‘Grexit’ would constitute a non-diversifiable event, affecting all financial assets. This is because, upon the departure of one of its members, EMU would likely be seen as a fixed exchange rate arrangement between countries which can elect to adhere or leave. Convertibility risk would resurface, exposing the possibility of a collapse of the entire project.
We previously detailed the manipulations ("spoofing") that has occurred in oil futures but yesterday 'took the biscuit' in the outright bluntness of the algo's efforts to manage WTI Crude. As Nanex exposed, a 'wild HFT algo' oscillated oil 21 cents a dozen times in 18 seconds and the 'spoofing' continues. It appears though that after the squeeze of the last week, selling pressure has returned with WTI testing the $48 handle once again. But, but, but, the man on the TV news said oil prices had stabilized and bottom'd... it appears "it's a Brian Williams world" as business media anchors mis-remember their exuberant bottom-calls from last week.
Feel like trading FX has become next to impossible, with massive, gaping bid-ask spreads, strange "tractor beams", completely unexpected stop loss runs, and - of course - central banks behind every corner? Don't worry you are not alone. According to Bloomberg, that's precisely the case as "it hasn’t been this difficult to trade currencies since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. shook markets worldwide."As for the reason why, well: take a guess.
Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: The Entire Oil Collapse Is All About Crushing Russian Control Over SyriaSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/04/2015 10:45 -0500
And so the great chess game involving Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, Qatar, Syria, ISIS, Ukraine, natural gas and lots and lots of oil, is finally revealed.
Who could have seen that vertical USDJPY buying panic stock momo igniting move ahead of the US retail muppeteering open?
In 2014, the Firm launched the Point72 Academy. The Academy develops undergrads straight out of college into highly-skilled investors on an accelerated timeline.
From the day they start, Academy members have substantial responsibility and opportunities to contribute in a small team setting.
Today, more than half of Point72’s current Portfolio Managers started as Analysts and the Point72 Academy will grow that number over time.
In case you wonder who, why or what did it - perhaps this will help: how they did it before ...defendants developed a scheme by which Optiver, having accumulated a large net TAS (defined below) position, traded a significant volume of futures contracts in the opposite direction, before and during the Close
It's not because - everything is awesome again. Some are claiming ISIS rumors were responsible but the size and veolocty suggest otherwise (and insta-stop at the NYMEX close)