High Yield

Where Are We In The Business Cycle: A Troubling Chart From Morgan Stanley

According to Morgan Stanley, 2017 will be a year in which odds of a boom and bust have materially increased, consistent with a late-cycle US environment. So late, in fact, that one look at the chart below shows the US cycle has not only plateaued but is now stalling and is turning over.

What "The Worst Bond Rout In 15 Years" Means For Stocks

"The paradigm has shifted in terms of inflation. Long-end interest rates are dangerous. Make sure you are being really careful about the long-end exposure as we saw this week." - Rick Rieder, CIO for global fixed income at BlackRock.

The First "Trump Thirty" Auction: Deplorable

If yesterday's 10Y and today's 30Y are indicative of how "easy", or rather difficult it will be to sell debt for the Trump administration, the market may want to significantly reign in its expectations for a $5 trillion incremental boost to the US debt, which at this rate will only happen if the Fed is out there scooping it up in yet another QE operation.

Indirect Bidders Tumble, Bid To Cover Lowest Since 2009 In Poor 3 Year Auction

With the election front and center on everyone's attention, today's sale of $24 billion in 3 Year paper was expected to slide under the radar as an afterthought, and perhaps that's a good thing because it was quite ugly. While the high yield of 1.034% stopped through the When Issued of 1.036%, the result of the notable selloff today across the curve as a result of early polling "data" which shows Hillary in the lead across battleground states, the internals were atrocious.

Equity Derivatives Flash Brexit-Like "Panic Signal"

Equity market implied correlation is flashing a 'panic' warning according to BMO quant Mark Steele as the little-known derivative indicator suggests traders fear a major 'high correlation' event and are aggressively hedging systemic risk.

RBC: "Be Prepared For Another 'Vol-Control' Deleveraging Wave"

"At this frantic vol buying pace, with VIX +17% on the day, it won’t take much longer until further mechanical deleveraging is triggered from these extremely popular retail and ALM vehicles  Long story short, be prepared for another deleveraging wave (which could be happening ‘real time’ as I send) the longer vols stay at these levels, bc they’ve just been ‘stuck’ so low in recent weeks."

The Coming Bond Market Crash - An Interview With Eric Hadik

"I believe 2017--2021 will represent the end and reversal of that multi-decade trend - as the debt bubble bursts and bond markets begin to crash... Each phase was a desperate battle between centralized, governmental control of currency versus universal, hard-asset based currency. And each phase saw the acceleration and intensification of that battle take hold in the ‘7’ year."

KKR Calls The Top: PE Giant Selling Distressed Debt It Bought Earlier This Year

“We are in a very significant monetization cycle, particularly in more of the distressed investments that we made,” said Nat Zilkha, who oversees the 40-year-old firm’s credit investments, adding that “we got involved in some situations in energy and coal and other commodities earlier in the year, and those have played out quite well -- frankly faster than we thought.”