High Yield

How Much Longer Can Junk Bonds Ignore Tumbling Oil? UBS Has The Answer

"If oil prices fall to $40 or below, the negative impact on rest of world profits could be a material headwind for aggregate corporate profits, and a prolonged $40 oil price would trigger more stress and defaults in lower-quality HY issuers heading into 2018."

BofA: "Central Banks Are Now In A Desperate Dilemma"..."Start Buying Volatility"

"Central banks, the reason behind high asset prices and low vol, are now in desperate dilemma: politically unacceptable for bubble on Wall St, but central banks will be tightening into deflation; inflection point for volatility is upon us and we recommend investors buy volatility....Fed tightening in 2017 could easily be followed by easing in 2018, in our view."

WTI Tumbles To $42, Brent Below $45 As Credit Crashes

High yield energy credit markets are in trouble again, with risk now at its highest level in 7 months. Despite this morning's Iran-hyped OPEC bullshit and a small draw in Gasoline, it appears the reality of surging US shale production and lagging demand is weighing down oil (and gasoline) markets...

The Blow-Off Top Is Here: Second Largest Weekly Inflows To Wall Street In History

For confirmation that the market is now in its "blow off top" phase, look no further than the latest BofA "flow show" in which Michael Hartnett reports that capital markets just saw their biggest week of equity inflows since the US election ($24.6bn), another chunky inflow to bonds ($9.0bn), which combines to "the second largest week of inflows to Wall Street ever (largest was $35.5bn in Dec'2014)."

Reflexivity And Why The Fed Must Sell The Long End

"If the Fed were to just let its balance sheet 'run off', it would cause additional pressure on short-term interest rates even as policy rates are rising. It could also potentially invert or further distort the front-end of the yield curve and destabilize the money markets... It would, therefore, behoove the Fed to sell some of its longer dated Treasury holdings to steepen the yield curve."

10 Year Auction Tails Despite Strongest Foreign Central Bank Demand Since January

Following the earlier blockbuster 3Y auction, moments ago the US followed up with today's second auction, a 9-year-11-month reopening of CUSIP X88, in which $20 billion in paper was sold, once again largely to willing foreign bidders, which however unlike today's earlier auction priced at a high yield of 2.195%, tailing modestly the When Issued of 2.188% by 0.7 bps.

BMO: "This Is The Beginning Of The End" For Junk Bonds

"it’s the breakdown in the relative strength of Energy laden (17% by weight) High Yield which offers the same, but ultimately much more important signaling. If it were the end, we’d be a buyer, but as it’s the beginning of the end, in our judgement, we are continued sellers."