High Yield

Tyler Durden's picture

The Collapse Of The High Yield Market, And Why Highly Leveraged Companies Are In Run Off Mode





While the vicious love quadrangle (no pun intended Mr. Rattner) of Bernanke, Geithner, Lewis and Vikram pound the table on just how well lubricated the credit markets have become, the truth is that aside from ultra high quality Investment Grade names and TLPG-backed financial issuance, the credit market is for all practical purposes still in critical condition and about to be carted off to the morgue. The fact is that YTD issuance in the riskier HY and loan markets (see chart below) stands at a meager $22 billion - the lowest level in recent history.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Collapse Of The High Yield Market, And Why Highly Leveraged Companies Are In Run Off Mode





While the vicious love quadrangle (no pun intended Mr. Rattner) of Bernanke, Geithner, Lewis and Vikram pound the table on just how well lubricated the credit markets have become, the truth is that aside from ultra high quality Investment Grade names and TLPG-backed financial issuance, the credit market is for all practical purposes still in critical condition and about to be carted off to the morgue. The fact is that YTD issuance in the riskier HY and loan markets (see chart below) stands at a meager $22 billion - the lowest level in recent history.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

53% Of High Yield Companies To Default Over Next 5 Years





According to a research report by Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank, the 5 year cumulative default rate for US High Yield names will hit 53% assuming 0 recovery rates, and 69% assuming average recoveries. In Europe things are even worse: 65% and 81% respectively.

 
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