Home Equity

Iceland went after the people who caused the crisis — the bankers who created and sold the junk products — and tried to shield the general population. But what Iceland did is not just emotionally satisfying. Iceland is recovering, while the rest of the Western world — which bailed out the bankers and left the general population to pay for the bankers’ excess — is not. Iceland’s approach is very much akin to what I have been advocating — write down the unsustainable debt, liquidate the junk corporations and banks that failed, disincentivise the behaviour that caused the crisis, and provide help to the ordinary individuals in the real economy (as opposed to phoney “stimulus” cash to campaign donors and big finance). And Iceland has snapped out of its depression. The rest of the West, where banks continue to behave exactly as they did prior to the crisis, not so much.

We have seen numerous articles as of late discussing how the average American family has finally delevered their household balance sheet at last. The problem is that apart from mortgage debt, whose decline has been facilitated by massive central bank and governmental intervention, other debt is still being piled on. These other debts are at substantially higher rates than mortgages and negatively impacts the consumer's ability to save.  This is why savings rates continue to fall.  As full-time employment remains elusive, the average American continues to resort to debt, and governmental support, to fill the gap between waning real incomes and their expected standard of living.  This is a game that has a finite end. The diversion of income from savings to support debt service requirements will continue to impede economic growth until such time as either debt returns to levels that are conducive for higher levels of personal savings or incomes rise. This leaves consumers trapped between the need to payoff of debts in order to free up cash flow but needing increased levels of debt to sustain their standard of living.  In the end the consumer will delever, either by choice or by force, the only difference between the two outcomes is the length of time that the current economic malaise lasts.

Politics and economics, or the better term, political economics, for the most part rules our lives: the political activity of the nation as a collective of economic groups and super- wealthy individuals, whatever the defining orthodoxy turns out to be. As the United States enters the final days in the much-hoped resolution of its “fiscal cliff,” there are a number of prominent individuals from both present and past – politicians, economists and business leaders – who regale us with their two-cent worth of admonition and advice.  For the most part, that’s what the value is really worth. Meantime, here is the American citizenry reverting to their pre-recession days, with the highest confidence level in four and a half years, starting to spend beyond their capacity to produce thanks to that misplaced confidence, the resurgence of home equity loans, and the promise of governing politicians that things are on the mend... when they really are not, and the job market continues to decay for jobs with a living wage.

"After six years of declines, lending for so-called Helocs will rise 30 percent to $79.6 billion in 2012, the highest level since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, according to the economics research unit of Moody’s Corp. Originations next year will jump another 31 percent to $104 billion, it projected."

• Goldman Turns Down Southern Europe Banks as Crisis Lingers (Bloomberg)
• Euro Ministers Take Third Swing at Clearing Greek Payment (Bloomberg)
• Chamber Sidestepped in Obama’s Talks on Avoiding Fiscal Cliff (Bloomberg)
• Republicans and Democrats Differ on Taxes as Fiscal Cliff Looms (Bloomberg)
• Republicans bargain hard over fiscal cliff (FT)
• Catalan Pro-Independence Parties Win Regional Vote (BBG)
• Shirakawa defends BoJ from attack (FT)
• Run-off looms in Italy’s centre-left vote (FT)
• BOJ rift surfaces over easing as political debate heats up (Reuters)
• Barnier seeks ‘political will’ on bank union (FT)
• New BOJ Members Sought More-Expansionary Wording (Bloomberg)
• Osborne May Extend U.K. Austerity to 2018, IFS Says (Bloomberg)

Moments ago Ben Bernanke released a speech titled "Challenges in Housing and Mortgage Markets" in which he said that while the US housing revival faces significant obstacles, the Fed will do everything it can to back the "housing recovery" (supposedly on top of the $40 billion in MBS it monetizes each month, and/or QEternity+1^?). He then goes on to say that tight lenders may be thwarting the recovery, and is concerned about high unemployment, things that should be prevented as housing is a "powerful headwind to the recovery." In other words - the same canned gibberish he has been showering upon those stupid and naive enough to listen and/or believe him, because once the current downtrend in the market is confirmed to be a long-term decline, the 4th dead cat bounce in housing will end. But perhaps what is most amusing is that the Fed is now accusing none other than the US household for not doing their patriotic duty to reflate the peak bubble. To wit: "The Federal Reserve will continue to do what we can to support the housing recovery, both through our monetary policy and our regulatory and supervisory actions. But, as I have discussed, not all of the responsibility lies with the government; households, the financial services industry, and those in the nonprofit sector must play their part as well." So "get to work, Mr. Household: Benny and the Inkjets, not to mention Chuck Schumer's careers rest on your bubble-reflation skills."

We have discussed the apparent (though anecdotal) divergence between refinancing rates and interest rates a number of times. Furthermore, we have exclaimed at the significant drop in refi rates since QE3 (following the initial spike) noting the unintended consequence that US households are increasingly realizing that rates will never be allowed to rise and so every rate rise is not a signal to rush into refinancing but instead a signal to pause for lower rates. The chart below is somewhat surprising in its clarity as Goldman Sachs note that despite record low mortgage rates, borrowers are refinancing at a rate of just 20-30% per year - far lower than prepayment speeds we would expect. The great majority of 'in the money' mortgages are not being refinanced and while we suggest this is the unintended Bernanke conditioning, Goldman also opines that industry capacity and underwriting standards on the supply side; and consumer awareness and household behavior on the demand side. Bernanke's wealth-building transmission channel via housing is entirely broken...

Canadian household debt as a percentage of income by now vastly exceeds the peak that was seen at the height of the US real estate bubble. CIBC thinks the huge amount of household debt in Canada and the beginning cracks in the housing bubble are nothing to worry about. The main reason for this benign assessment seems to be that there have been a few other credit and real estate bubbles in the world that have grown even bigger than the US one before it burst. What a relief. It is generally held that Canada's banking system is in ruddy health and not in danger from the extended credit and real estate bubble, mainly because a government-owned organization, Canadian Mortgage Housing Corp. This kind of thinking has things exactly the wrong way around. It is precisely because such a state-owned guarantor of mortgages exists that the vaunted lending standards of Canada's banks have increasingly gone out of the window as the bubble has grown.

The bottom line on Citigroup's just released results: the firm reported an adjusted adjusted Net Income number of $3.268 billion ($1.06 EPS), which was "better" than the expected $0.97 (just like JPM's bottom line was better and the initial spike higher in the stock price promptly reverted into the red once people read the footnote text). How did Citi get to this number? It started with an unadjusted $964 million of Net LOSS and then added back a tax provision, CVA losses (as its spread tightened in the quarter), the loss for the sale of MSSB ($4.7 billion pre tax), and miraculously got to $3.3 billion. The MSSB and CVA/DVA adjustment also miraculously increased total revenues from $13.951 billion to $19.411 billion, making a sequential unadjusted 25% drop in Revenues equal to a 3% increase. But even if one were to assume that the bank's $3.3 billion uber-adjusted Net Income number is meaningful in any way, it is certainly notable that $1.509 million of this, or nearly 50% came from the tried and true gimmick: Loan Loss Reserves, which boosted EPS by the same percentage, even as the firm saw its Net Credit Losses soar by 11% from Q2, to $3.979 billion. This was a bigger LLR than in Q2 ($984MM) and Q3 2011 ($1,422MM). Same old goosing gimmicks, different day.

The state of Americans’ retirement accounts is dismal is how ConvergEx's Nick Colas begins his critically important-to-read note on the reality that millions face. According to an early 2012 study by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, Colas notes only 58% of us are currently saving money for retirement – and 60% of those that are have less than $25,000. Thirty percent have less than $1,000. Needless to say, it’s a far cry from the 8x-10x final earnings suggested by most retirement planners. So why are we so far behind? Americans aren’t exactly known for impressive savings habits, but that alone does not explain our poor preparation for retirement. Rather, Colas cites a general lack of financial literacy, including basic understandings of savings growth and retirement income needs, superseding financial obligations, and basic behavioral finance biases keep us from putting cash away. But if we keep up at this pace, you can expect the ongoing political debate about Social Security to take on new and more strident tones.

• OECD: Japan Public Debt in 'Uncharted Territory' (WSJ)
• Germany holds firm on Greece as IMF pressure mounts (Reuters)
• Schäuble and Lagarde clash over austerity (FT) - it would be great if someone actually implemented austerity...
• Merkel hints at tax cuts for growth boost (FT)
• Hollande Robbed of Growth Engine as Companies Cut Investment (BBG)
• Romney Narrows Gap With Obama in Swing State Polling (BBG)
• Sluggish Growth Seen Into Next Year (WSJ)
• Softbank Founder Has 300-Year Plan in Wooing Sprint Nextel (BBG)
• Singapore Forgoes Currency Stimulus on Inflation Risk (Bloomberg) - as does China day after day
• Sharp Jabs Dominate Combative Vice-Presidential Debate (WSJ)
• Japan and China Agree to Hold Talks on Rift After Noda Call (Bloomberg)

Since 2007 our analysis has suggested the likelihood of economic outcomes that most have considered unlikely: significant and ongoing monetary inflation, policy-administered currency devaluation, substantial global price inflation, and an eventual change in how the forty year old global monetary system is structured. Most observers have viewed such outlooks as tail events – highly unlikely, unworthy of serious consideration or a long way off. We remain resolute, and believe last week’s movements in Frankfurt and Washington towards perpetual quantitative easing confirmed and accelerated the validity of our outlook. With QBAMCO's view that $15,000 - $19,000 Gold is possible, timing of the catch-up phase is impossible - though they suspect last week's events may be the catalyst that begins to raise public awareness of the link between monetary inflation and price inflation.

I have often identified Keynesian economists and the Federal Reserve as cargo cults. After the U.S. won World War II in the Pacific Theater, its forces left huge stockpiles of goods behind on remote South Pacific islands because it wasn’t worth taking it all back to America. After the Americans left, some islanders, nostalgic for the seemingly endless fleet of ships loaded with technological goodies, started Cargo Cults that believed magical rituals and incantations would bring the ships of “free” wealth back. Some mimicked technology by painting radio dials on rocks and using the phantom radio to “call back” the “free wealth” ships. The Keynesians are like deluded members of a Cargo Cult. They ignore the reality of debt, rising interest payments and the resulting debt-serfdom in their belief that money spent indiscriminately on friction, fraud, speculation and malinvestment will magically call back the fleet of rapid growth. To the Keynesian, a Bridge to Nowhere is equally worthy of borrowed money as a high-tech factory. They are unable to distinguish between sterile sand and fertilizer, and unable to grasp the fact that ever-rising debt leaves America a nation of wealthy banks and increasingly impoverished debt-serfs.

It is no secret that having failed repeatedly at the trickle down aspect of QE1, QE2, Op Twist 1, Op Twist 2 (and implicitly LTRO 1 and LTRO 2) as it pertains to the man in the street (if not the man in Wall Street, who was subject to 1-2 years of subpar bonuses which have since regained their upward trendline), the last effort the central planners of the world, and the administration, have is to furiously do everything in their power to reflate housing one more time, following what is already a triple dip in home prices ever since the December 2007 start of the Second Great Depression. Which is why month after month we get seasonally fudged, conflicted and outright manipulated data from various sources how housing has bottomed, for real this time, and things are finally looking up. Remember: with any con game, the key word is confidence, and the US consumers need to regain their confidence. Sadly, as the following very simple chart and accompanying explanation, the answer to the housing question is only one: there will be no housing recovery until much more debt is eliminated. $3.2 trillion to be precise. Everything else is merely fits and spurts of upward action predicated by easy money hitting the market either directly, or via the "REO-to-Rental" stimulus program du jour, which lasts for a few months then promptly evaporates.

The punchline from today's Fed household debt and credit report is comparing student debt to one other favorite product of the housing bubble generation: HELOCs. We note home equity lines of equity because as of June 30, 2012, long after HELOCs were widely available to Americans locked in a rabid pursuit to extract as much equity as they could out of their homes, is when the 90+ day delinquent rate on this product hit an all time high of 4.92%, and is finally rising at a breakneck speed. What is fascinating is when one re-indexes the delinquency rate on HELOCs and student loans. While we admit that the "discharge" option on real estate-backed debt does have a material impact, the reality is that once the prevailing mode of thinking is one of just not paying one's student loans, it will be not the student loan chart which is already parabolic, but that which tracks delinquent student loans that will take its place in the exponential hall of fame.