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• There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone (FT)
• Greece over halfway to recovery, says PM (FT) - inspired comedy...
• Sarkozy Trims Gap With Rival, Polls Show (WSJ) - Diebold speaks again
• IMF’s Zhu Sees ‘Soft-Landing’ Even as Property Slides: Economy (Bloomberg)
• Obama Uses Lincoln to Needle Republicans Battling in Illinois (Bloomberg)
• Three shot dead outside Jewish school in France (Reuters)
• Osborne Seeks to End 50% Tax Spat With Pledge to Aid U.K. Poor (Bloomberg)
• Monti to Meet Labor Unions Amid Warning of Continued Euro Crisis (Bloomberg)

All you need to read.

All you need to read.

• Greek Bailout Payment Set to Be Approved by Euro Ministers After Debt Deal (Bloomberg)
• China Trade Deficit Spurs Concern (WSJ)
• Sarkozy Makes Populist Push For Re-Election (FT)
• ECB Calls for Tougher Rules on Budgets (FT)
• As Fed Officials Prepare to Meet, They Await Clearer Economic Signals (NYT)
• PBOC Zhou: In Theory 'Lots Of Room' For Further RRR Cuts (WSJ)
• Latest Stress Tests Are Expected to Show Progress at Most Banks (NYT)
• Monti Eyes Labor Plan Amid Jobless Youth, Trapped Firemen (Bloomberg)

If there was any confusion as to who calls the shots in the world, the following anecdote should provide some needed clarity. Hint: it is not the US. After last week India announced it would proceed with a Cotton export ban, two days ago China logged "a formal protest against India's ban on cotton exports amid signs that India is rethinking the ban that was implemented a few days ago." As a result hours ago India announced that less than a week after enacting said ban, it is now overturning it. Of course, there is the diplomatic snafu of just why it did, and for India it has to do with "protecting" the interests of its farmers, who "complained that, due to higher production this year, they were already suffering from lower prices than they had expected and needed to export to recover their domestic losses." Of course, the farmers' position was well-known before the ban overturn. What wasn't known is just how vocal China would be, as suddenly it would scramble to find alternative sources as it fills its strategic cotton reserve. Turns out it was quite vocal. And India, unwilling to risk a trade war with the world's biggest economic power, promptly relented. As a result, any and all commodity traders who bought up the widowmaker trade may find themselves staring into a limit down market post open.

Robert Mish has been a precious metals dealer for nearly 50 years and knows what a gold bubble mania looks like. We are nowhere near that stage, in his opinion. Instead, he sees a US populace largely unappreciative of holding precious metal as a store of wealth, and engaged in a slow process of dis-hording their gold and silver to eager foreign buyers who are more than happy to take the bullion back to their shores. In terms of where we are on the gold mania spectrum, he sees us at a "2" out of 10. But he foresees a very rude awakening ahead as the populace eventually wakes up to the increasing damage our over-debted global economy is doing to the purchasing power of world currencies. Because when the general investor finally realizes the protection the precious metals offer against currency debasement, much of the retail supply will already be out of the system in very tight hands, and largely overseas. Moreover, when supply gets tight, there will be more challenges to obtaining physical bullion during a buying mania than there were during the last one in 1980. There are many fewer local sources to exchange bullion these days as much of that business is now transacted by online vendors dependent mail delivery to ship product, which are more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. And be sure you're aware of how the form you hold your bullion in will affect the price you get during a buying frenzy, when refining capacity is overwhelmed. You may find you gold or silver sells at a hefty discount because it's not in a preferred format for trade.

All you need to read.

All you need to read.

Citigroup have said that they believe that gold will rise to $2,400/oz in 2012 and by $3,400/oz in “the coming years”. However, Citi’s Tom Fitzpatrick warned of price weakness in the short term and said there is a “real danger” that there may be a correction to $1,600/oz which would provide an even better buying opportunity. Citi are also cautious near term on oil and silver. Production of gold in Australia slid again last year, despite gold fetching higher nominal prices than ever before. According to gold experts, Surbiton Associates, 264 tonnes of gold were produced last year, two tonnes less than in 2010. The 264 tonnes equated to about 8.5 million ounces and ensures that Australia remains a major player in gold, with only China producing more last year. The United States was the world's third-biggest producer with 240 tonnes. Australia's gold production was well below the nation's production peak in the late 1990s.  This further suggests the possibility of peak gold production. Of the world’s four biggest gold producers (China, Australia, the U.S. and South Africa), only China has managed to increase gold production in recent years and this Chinese gold is used in China to meet the rapidly growing demand for gold jewellery and coins and bars as stores of value in China.

• China cuts 2012 growth target to 7.5 percent, stability key (Reuters)
• Freom the Fed scribe himsef - Fed Takes a Break to Weigh Outlook (WSJ)
• Greek bond swap deal rests on knife-edge (FT)
• Lenders Stress Over Test Results (WSJ)
• China to Curb Auto Production Capacity, Promote New-Energy Car Development (Bloomberg)
• China military spending to top $100 billion in 2012, alarming neighbours (WaPo)
• Warning: A New Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest (Hussman)
• EU to push quota for women directors (FT)
• Romney Advances As Obama Gains (WSJ)
• Saudi Aramco Raises Oil Premium for April Sales to Asia, U.S.; Cuts Europe (Bloomberg)

Just the kind of scandal that the ballooning retirement-age population needs.

And now for something off the beaten path. As the title implies, while the rest of the world is transfixed on the usual bubble candidates in traditional asset classes, two of the bubbles currently brewing well beneath the radar are a second derivative on the uber-wealthy class in China and Hong Kong, which appears to have a very disproprionate impact on spending patterns for ultra luxury goods, in this case cognac and Swiss watches. Not only that, but investing in these up and coming bubbles has some useful externalities: one can drink cognac, while a Swiss watch can be melted into its constituent gold or platinum once the inevitable hyperinflation finally hits. Alternatively, as these are some of the most marginal products available, any changes in consumption patterns here will be the first indication that the Asian party is ending...

Could Sweden or Finland be the scene of the next European financial crisis? It is actually far likelier than most people realize. While the world has been laser-focused on the woes of the heavily-indebted PIIGS nations for the last couple of years, property markets in Northern and Western European countries have been bubbling up to dizzying new heights in a repeat performance of the very property bubbles that caused the global financial crisis in the first place. Nordic and Western European countries such as Norway and Switzerland have attracted strong investment inflows due to their perceived economic safe-haven statuses, serving to further inflate these countries’ preexisting property bubbles that had expanded from the mid-1990s until 2008. With their overheated economies and ballooning property bubbles, today’s safe-haven European countries may very well be tomorrow’s Greeces and Italys.

Large IPOs often mark tops within sectors and within stock markets as a whole. In June 2007, shortly after the s*** had begun to hit the fan in the financial stocks, the Blackstone Group (BX) was able to get a multi-billion dollar IPO in. About a year and a half later, BX was down about as much as the Dow Jones fell between its 1929 peak and its mid-1932 nadir--almost 90%. Major IPOs and runs of hot IPOs in a single sector do not happen in a vacuum. They are not the result of a philanthropic attitude amongst corporate insiders or the financial community. Last year, memories of the crash had finally faded enough that it became time for U.S. investors to become the quacking ducks that, as always, Wall Street had food for. And of course, tech was there as the most palatable food. If they wanted, Facebook could raise every penny it needs, and more, from private sources. So ...

• Germany Crisis Role in Focus After G-20 Rebuff (Bloomberg)
• G20 to Europe: Show us the money (Reuters)
• Draghi’s Unlimited Loans Are No Panacea (Bloomberg)
• Geithner says Europe has lowered risks of "catastrophe" (Reuters)
• Gone in 22 Seconds (WSJ)
• Gillard beats Rudd to stay Australian PM (FT)
• Brazil Will Continue Reducing Interest Rates, Tombini Says (Bloomberg)
• China to Have ‘Soft Landing’ Soon: Zoellick (Bloomberg)
• China To Be Largest Economy Before 2030: World Bank (Reuters)
• Obama pressed to open emergency oil stocks (FT)