Hong Kong

Because no discussion of global dollar pegs and entrenched FX regimes would be complete without mentioning the Hong Kong dollar...

"China halts intervention in stock market so far this week as policy makers debate merits of an unprecedented government campaign to prop up share prices and what to do next, according to people familiar with situation. Some leaders support argument that stock market is too small relative to broader economy to cause crisis, says one of the people, who asked not to be identified as deliberations are private Leaders also believe intervention is too costly, person says."

Yesterday's market tumble finally brought the S&P and Nasdaq alongside the Dow Jones into correction territory, send the broader index down 11% from its highs, even as a vast majority of S&P constituents already preceded the index and are either in correction or in bear market territory. And yet, following today's latest central bank intervention, this time in the long overdue Chinese interest rate cut (which will hardly have a lasting impact on either the economy or stock markets), the S&P correction may may prove to be short lived: S&P is poised to open about 4% higher, delivering the latest "Bullard" moment to the S&P, this time courtesy of China. Still, the question remains: was that it for the long overdue correction, and what comes next.

The dual policy rate cut is a desperate attempt to i) free up liquidity, and ii) shore up confidence in the stock market. We suspect the effects may be short lived on both accounts because after all, aggressive easing only fuels further depreciation necessitating further liquidity-sapping FX interventions in a vicious loop, and loose monetary policy likely won’t be much comfort to China’s 90 million retail investors who now, more than ever before, are virtually guaranteed to sell any rip they can get in a desperate attempt to claw back their life savings which they naively poured into stocks back in April and May.

The Carnage continues in China (and across AsiaPac) as Japan propagandizes and China throws more kitchen sinks at the market to stop the malicious sellers...

• Deutsche Bank Says Rout ‘Very Serious’ as Growth Outlook Dims (BBG)
• Great fall of China sinks world stocks, dollar tumbles (Reuters)
• Global Stocks Fall Sharply Amid Concerns About the Chinese Economy (WSJ)
• Stock Rout Spreads Through Europe After China Plunge (BBG)
• China stocks give up year's gains as 'national team' stays on bench (Reuters)
• The Fed Is Looking at a Very Different Dollar Than Wall Street (BBG)
• French train gunman 'dumbfounded' by terrorist tag (Reuters)

The following story is guaranteed to make you sick. Once again, we’re shown that following trillions in taxpayer funded bailouts and backstops, TBTF Wall Street banks immediately went ahead and focused all their attention obtaining loopholes in order to transfer risk and make billions upon billions of dollars in the financial matrix, as opposed to adding any benefit whatsoever to society.

"I have learnt from history that it is very hard working out what the trigger is. In 2008, it was the collapse of Lehman Brothers that triggered a credit crunch. Now it could be a major event in Turkey or a default of the Brazilian oil company Petrobras or some event in Malaysia. But if I have to pick one I would say it is Turkey introducing capital controls. Such controls will mean that Turkey will not pay back principals amounting to 400 Bio. $ and the interests on it." - Russell Napier

• No End in Sight for Oil Glut (WSJ)
• Dozens of Clinton emails were classified from the start, U.S. rules suggest (Reuters)
• China August Manufacturing Activity Hits Lowest Level Since 2009 (WSJ)
• German Manufacturing Strengthens as Economy Shifts Up a Gear (BBG)
• Israel responds to rocket attack with protest and air strikes (FT)
• ASX carnage: 2015 fast becoming a year to forget  (Canberra Times)
• Hong Kong Stocks Enter Bear Market After Falling From April Peak (BBG)

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is now down over 21% from the highs, having fallen over 9% in the last week, and Taiwan's TAIEX is down over 20% from April highs, joining Chinese stocks, both joining Chinese stocks in official bear markets. Japanese markets are down over 6% in the last few days (which Amari simply brushes off, blaming the global selloff stemming from China), a JGB trading volumes slump to a record low. Tensions in Korea are not helping. With all eyes on China's flash PMI (though why we are not sure since PBOC is already full liquidity-tard with CNY350bn this week alone), The PBOC fixed Yuan at 6.3864, up from yesterday's biggest strengthening in 3 months to 6.3915 (the biggest 2 day strengthening since April), and margin debt fell for the 3rd day. Gold is surging in the Asia session, near $1160.

• Crude prices fall towards $40 on global glut (Reuters)
• China Central Bank Injects Most Funds Since February as Money Rates Increase (BBG)
• Divided Fed Puts Yellen on Hot Seat (Hilsenrath)
• So Long September: Bond Traders Defer Their Date With the Fed (BBG)
• More Foods Boast Non-GMO Labels—Even Those Without GMO Varieties (WSJ)
• UN to let Iran inspect alleged nuke work site (AP)
• IAEA says access to Iran's Parchin military site meets demands (Reuters)
• Time to End Quarterly Reports, Law Firm Says (WSJ)

It is unclear what precipitated it (some blamed China concerns, fears of rate hikes, commodity weakness, technical picture deterioration although  it's all just goalseeking guesswork) but overnight S&P futures followed yesterday's unexpected slide following what were explicitly dovish Fed minutes, and took another sharp leg lower down by almost 20 points, set to open below the 200 DMA again, as the dazed and confused investing world reacts to what both the Treasury and Oil market signal is a deflationary deluge. Indeed, oil is about to trade under $40 while the 10Y Treasury was last seen trading at 2.07%. Incidentally, the last time oil was here in March of 2009, the Fed was about to unleash QE 1. This time, so called experts are debating if the Fed will hike rates in one month or three.

The PBOC set the Yuan fix 0.08% stronger - the biggest 'strengthening' in 2 months, which is interesting because The IMF's confirmation of a delay to Yuan inclusion in the SDR basket to Oct 2016 (pending a year-end decision) asked for more flexibility. For the 3rd day in a row, The PBOC injected massive liquidity (120bn today, 110bn yesterday, 120bn Monday). Shanghai margin debt declined for a 2nd day in a row and Chinese stocks look set to open weaker.

With China's currency devaluation having shifted to the backburner if only for the time being, all attention was once again on the Chinese stock market roller coaster, which did not disappoint: starting off with yesterday's dramatic 6.2% plunge, the Shanghai Composite crashed in early trading, plunging as much as 5% in early trading and bringing the two-day drop to a correction-inducing 11%, and just 51.2 points away from the July 8 low (when China unleashed the biggest ad hoc market bailout in capital markets history) . And then the cavalry came in, and virtually the entire afternoon session was one big BTFD orgy, leading to a 1.2% gain in the Shanghai Composite closing price, while Shenzhen and ChiNext closed up 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively.

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