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Frontrunning: August 20





  • Crude prices fall towards $40 on global glut (Reuters)
  • China Central Bank Injects Most Funds Since February as Money Rates Increase (BBG)
  • Divided Fed Puts Yellen on Hot Seat (Hilsenrath)
  • So Long September: Bond Traders Defer Their Date With the Fed (BBG)
  • More Foods Boast Non-GMO Labels—Even Those Without GMO Varieties (WSJ)
  • UN to let Iran inspect alleged nuke work site (AP)
  • IAEA says access to Iran's Parchin military site meets demands (Reuters)
  • Time to End Quarterly Reports, Law Firm Says (WSJ)
 
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Dazed And Confused: Futures Tumble Below 200 DMA, Oil Near $40, Soaring Treasurys Signal Deflationary Deluge





It is unclear what precipitated it (some blamed China concerns, fears of rate hikes, commodity weakness, technical picture deterioration although  it's all just goalseeking guesswork) but overnight S&P futures followed yesterday's unexpected slide following what were explicitly dovish Fed minutes, and took another sharp leg lower down by almost 20 points, set to open below the 200 DMA again, as the dazed and confused investing world reacts to what both the Treasury and Oil market signal is a deflationary deluge. Indeed, oil is about to trade under $40 while the 10Y Treasury was last seen trading at 2.07%. Incidentally, the last time oil was here in March of 2009, the Fed was about to unleash QE 1. This time, so called experts are debating if the Fed will hike rates in one month or three.

 
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China Strengthens Yuan By Most In 2 Months Following Another Massive Liquidity Injection





The PBOC set the Yuan fix 0.08% stronger - the biggest 'strengthening' in 2 months, which is interesting because The IMF's confirmation of a delay to Yuan inclusion in the SDR basket to Oct 2016 (pending a year-end decision) asked for more flexibility. For the 3rd day in a row, The PBOC injected massive liquidity (120bn today, 110bn yesterday, 120bn Monday). Shanghai margin debt declined for a 2nd day in a row and Chinese stocks look set to open weaker.

 
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Chinese Intervention Rescues Market From 2-Day Plunge, Futures Red Ahead Of Inflation Data, FOMC Minutes





With China's currency devaluation having shifted to the backburner if only for the time being, all attention was once again on the Chinese stock market roller coaster, which did not disappoint: starting off with yesterday's dramatic 6.2% plunge, the Shanghai Composite crashed in early trading, plunging as much as 5% in early trading and bringing the two-day drop to a correction-inducing 11%, and just 51.2 points away from the July 8 low (when China unleashed the biggest ad hoc market bailout in capital markets history) . And then the cavalry came in, and virtually the entire afternoon session was one big BTFD orgy, leading to a 1.2% gain in the Shanghai Composite closing price, while Shenzhen and ChiNext closed up 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively.

 
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China's Richest Traders Are Rushing To Dump Their Stocks To The Retail Masses, Just Like In The US





As it turns out it is not just in the US that the "smart money" is bailing out as fast as it can: according to Bloomberg, the wealthiest investors in China’s stock market are also scrambling for the exits. To wit: "The number of traders with more than 10 million yuan ($1.6 million) of shares in their accounts shrank by 28 percent in July, even as those with less than 100,000 yuan rose by 8 percent, according to the nation’s clearing agency. While some of the drop is explained by falling market values, CLSA Ltd. says China’s rich have taken advantage of state buying to cash out after the nation’s record-long bull market peaked in June."

 
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From Crisis To Confiscation - Where Do I Store My Wealth?





It's human nature for us to want to keep our wealth close at hand. Trouble is, you have all your wealth in one jurisdiction, and should that jurisdiction find itself in an economic crisis, all that “diversification” will be seriously at risk. If we’re being really truthful with ourselves, governments pose a greater threat than the average thief, as they can steal legally. Much of the world has gone on a massive spending spree and has, in effect, used a credit card to do so. Soon, that bill will need to be paid and the jurisdictions that are in debt will unquestionably be revealed to be insolvent. The economic crisis, when it hits, will be sudden and will be devastating.

 

 
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Frontrunning: August 17





  • Oil moves nearer six-year low on Japan data, oversupply (Reuters)
  • Commodity Slide Spurs Treasuries as Emerging Markets Extend Drop (BBG)
  • Because 7 years is "just right" - BOE Official Says Don’t Wait Too Long on Rates (WSJ)
  • How Medicare Rewards Copious Nursing-Home Therapy (WSJ)
  • Millennials Are Developing Parents’ Taste for Jaguars, Cadillacs (BBG) ... and even more debt
  • Mexican Billionaire’s Firms Swept Up in U.S. Probe of Citigroup (BBG)
 
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China Currency War Contagion Spills Out, Leads To Global FX Heatmap Bloodbath, PBOC Intervention





Overnight the world realized that there is much more devaluation to come,  which in turn led to a tidal move higher in the EURUSD as the European banks who had been short the EURCNH (probably the same ones that were long the EURCHF in January ahead of the SNB shocker) continued covering their exposure, and in turn pushed the EURUSD well above 1.11, while the CHF continued to tumble alongside the USD at least when it comes to Europe. In Asia, and local emergin markets, however, it was a different FX story enitrely.

 
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Frontrunning: August 11





  • China Rattles Markets With Yuan Devaluation (BBG)
  • China Move Sparks Wave of Yuan Selling (WSJ)
  • China's devaluation raises currency war fear as Greece strikes deal (Reuters)
  • Protests return to Ferguson streets, state of emergency declared (Reuters)
  • Heavily armed 'Oath Keepers' inject new unease to riot-hit Ferguson (Reuters)
  • Greece Secures Bailout Deal After All-Night Talks in Athens (BBG)
  • U.S. Identifies Insider Trading Ring With Ukraine Hackers (BBG)
 
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Forget The Fake Statistics: China Is A Tinderbox





When China's tinderbox economy implodes, who will be left to bid up the world's surplus commodities and real estate?

 
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