Hong Kong

The US had a credit bubble, China has a credit bubble. The US had a housing bubble, China has a housing/investment bubble. Will China eventually have to go down the same path as the U.S., and the Eurozone? The answer: yes.

• 5 Things to Watch in February’s Jobs Report (WSJ)
• Draghi Declares Victory for Bond-Buying Before It Starts (BBG)
• Apple Pay Sign-Ups Get Tougher as Banks Respond to Fraud (WSJ)
• As World’s Hottest Economy Unravels, Nigerians Feel the Squeeze (BBG)
• EU discontent over French budget deal's 'political bazaar' (Reuters)
• Foreign Takeovers See U.S. Losing Tax Revenue (WSJ)
• Goldman Shareholders’ Hope for Bigger Payout Dashed by Fed (BBG)
• Europe Stocks Headed for 31% Surge This Year Amid QE, Citi Says (BBG)
• Dollar revs up for jobs data, euro bonds rally on ECB (Reuters)

It has been a while since we have seen the USDJPY rampathon push US equities higher, so in a day dominated by central banks (first the BOE momentarily), and then the ECB's much anticipated announcement of the actual QE launch at the Draghi press conference at 1:30pm CET (taking place, ironically enough, in the place that was the blueprint for the Eurozone's capital controls, Cyprus), it only makes sense that after weeks of stage fright, the USDJPY algos reminded the world they are alive and well, and proceeded to ramp the key FX pair above 120, even though the currency that everyone will be talking about today is the Euro, hugging 1.10 as of this moment, but the real question is what happens after Draghi gives the asset buying green light: has all of Q€ been priced in already in FX, and will the EURUSD resume its surge higher, or is parity next stop?

• RBS to cut up to 14,000 jobs in investment banking unit (FT)
• Doctors, patients scramble ahead of high court Obamacare decision (Reuters)
• Rajan Cuts India Rates After Modi Agrees to Inflation Target (BBG)
• Russia’s Putin Makes First Public Comments on Killing of Boris Nemtsov (WSJ)
• House breaks impasse, passes security funding without provisions (Reuters)
• How a 25-Year-Old Investor Spurred Lumber Liquidators’ Plunge (BBG)
• Jeff Immelt’s Overhaul of GE Impeded by Falling Oil Prices (WSJ)
• Sahara India Defaults on Luxury Hotel Loans From Bank of China (BBG)

• 3 days after Zero Hedge, here's Bloomberg: Company Cash Bathes Stocks as Monthly Buybacks Set Record (BBG)
• Israel's Netanyahu to address Congress in speech that has strained ties with Obama (Reuters), Risks Diplomatic, Political Pain If Speech Falls Flat (BBG)
• Before Key Speech, Netanyahu Hails U.S. Ties (WSJ)
• $1.92 bilion FX rigging charge: Barclays Posts Loss as Foreign-Exchange Provisions Rise (WSJ)
• Barclays Awards Jenkins First Bonus as CEO, Cuts Pay Pool (BBG)
• Exxon’s Russia Exposure Surges as Long View Outweighs Sanctions (BBG)
• Obama says Iran must halt key nuclear work for at least a decade (Reuters)
• Yellen Turning from Friend to Foe for Dollar Bulls (BBG)

• Hilsenrath: Fed Ushering in New Era of Uncertainty on Rates (WSJ)
• Is Supreme Court's chief justice ready to take down ObamaCare? (The Hill)
• Netanyahu arrives in U.S., signs of easing of tensions over Iran speech (Reuters)
• Nemtsov Murder Fuels Suspicion, Fails to Spur Russia Selloff (BBG)
• ECB uncomfortable with leading role in Greek funding drama (Reuters)
• Video shows Los Angeles police shooting homeless man dead (Reuters)
• Iraq Military Begins Campaign to Reclaim Tikrit (WSJ)
• How Billionaires in London Use Secret Luxury Homes to Hide Assets (BBG)

The levels of spin and denial are reminiscent of the run-up to the 2007 crisis. We and many others were ignored for highlighting the dangers facing the Irish and global economy then and are being ignored again now.

• Goldman Employees Reaped $2 Billion From 2008 Options Last Year (BBG)
• On Bush turf, Obama blames immigration woes on Republicans (Reuters)
• Tougher Internet rules to hit cable, telecoms companies (Reuters)
• Russia's Gazprom says can exempt rebel-held areas from Ukraine gas contract (Reuters)
• Allianz Says Pimco Seeing ‘Substantially’ Lower Outflows (BBG)
• Merkel Faces Stepped-Up Dissent on Greek Bailout in Party (BBG)
• SEC Probes Companies’ Treatment of Whistleblowers (WSJ)
• 2-Year Trek From Turf to Table Delays Cheaper U.S. Beef (BBG)
• Turkish jets violate Greek air space (Kathimerini)

Janet Yellen is very alarmed that some members of Congress want to conduct a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve for the first time since it was created. During testimony this week, she made “central bank independence” sound like it was the holy grail. Even though every other government function is debated politically in this country, Janet Yellen insists that what the Federal Reserve does is “too important” to be influenced by the American people. Does any other government agency ever dare to make that claim? If the Fed is doing everything correctly, why should Yellen be alarmed? What does she have to hide?

“Based upon a review of your account, there has been no such qualifying activity and it is therefore subject to being classified as abandoned if you do not act quickly... If we fail to hear from you the account will be escheated to the state and closed.”

Sovereign Risk is the biggest risk out there. You cannot ever underestimate the desperate tactics and procedures of bankrupt governments.

• Invade Syria already, we know you will: Islamic State in Syria abducts at least 150 Christians (Reuters)
• Greece Struggles to Get Citizens to Pay Their Taxes (WSJ)
• Doubts Shadow Deal to Extend Greek Bailout (WSJ)
• In surprise result, Chicago's Mayor Emanuel faces election run-off (Reuters)
• Obama vetoes Keystone pipeline bill (Reuters)
• Another sign of the top: Cushman & Wakefield Going Up for Sale (WSJ)
• Lure of Wall Street Cash Said to Skew Credit Ratings (BBG) ... and threat of DOJ lawsuits also
• Oil rises to $59 as Saudis say demand growing (Reuters)

Oops! Amid new money-laundering allegations against HSBC's Swiss arm, The Guardian reports that leaked files show that CEO Stuart Gulliver sheltered US$7.6 million in a Swiss account through a Panamanian company. While a spokesperson for the bank said that taxes were paid on these funds in Hong Kong, when asked why he used a Panamanian company to hold the funds, given Swiss accounts already offer secrecy, they declined to comment. With Gulliver stating, "the business has been transformed and standards are now up to scratch," we prsume, of course, that the PR spin will be: who better to refocus the 'new' HSBC on battling tax fraud than someone who has been there and done that...

The unintended consequences of a money-printed, credit-fueled, mal-investment-boom in commodities (prices - as opposed to physical demand per se) and the downstream signals that sent to any and all industries are starting to bite. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged once again to new record lows and the collapse of the non-financialized 'clean' indicator of the imbalances between global trade demand and freight transport supply has the real-world effects are starting to be felt, as Reuters reports the third dry-bulk shipper this month has filed for bankruptcy... in what shippers call "the worst market conditions since the '80s."

With Greece moving to the, ahem, periphery if only for a few days/hours, this week the US calendar returns to the forefront with Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow night and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, which the market will be paying very close attention to for the reconciliation of how the Fed plans to continue on its rate-hiking path despite rapidly deteriorating US macro data that has started 2015 at the worst pace (in terms of downside surprises) since Lehman.

• Tsipras Tamed as Economists Declare Greece Loses Austerity Fight (BBG)
• Greece readies reform plans to first sign of leftist unrest (Reuters)
• Yellen Faces Congress Amid Direst Threat to Fed Since Dodd-Frank (BBG)
• The war must go on: Kiev says cannot withdraw heavy weapons as attacks persist (Reuters)
• Ukraine fears spread of war after blast in eastern city (Reuters)
• Denmark Dismisses Report It Could Consider Capital Controls (BBG)
• Deadline Nears on Homeland Security Funding Impasse (WSJ)
• Gross Fund Hurt by Oil’s Plunge Amid Bets on Energy Bonds (BBG)