Hong Kong

In the final part of Hugh Hendry's 3-part (part 1 and part 2 here) interview with MoneyWeek's Merryn Somerset the Sanguine Scot, perhaps surprisingly to some given his previous negativity - though fitting with his world view of fiat currency destruction - believes "to bet against China or Chinese equities, or the Chinese currency is to bet against the omnipotence of central banks. One day that will be the right trade, just not ready or sure that that is the right trade today."

The news this week of China's largest corporate bankruptcy - Haixin Iron & Steel Group - amid crashing iron ore and steel prices was followed by analysts noting it "will be followed by others," as the major flaw of producers of iron ore, the most traded commodity after oil, is they tend to be "over-bullish." Distressed debt funds are starting to circle in preparation for what they expect to be a bloodbath as Bloomberg reports, bad debts in China are well underestimated because authorities persist in propping up weak companies and bailing out local investors, according to DAC Management, "we've yet to see it because if you look at corporate defaults, they keep getting covered by the government. At some point, they can’t cover every single one." Most worryingly though, as KPMG points out, "when you see restructuring advisers getting hired by SOEs... you know it's coming."

It will come as no surprise to regular readers that gold (and silver) have suffered from 'odd' violent down-slams in the last few months but, as Bloomberg reports, those 'sneak-attacks' have become increasingly more prevalent during the thin illiquid hours of the Asia trading session. "It is unusual for Asia to be seeing these busy trading sessions," notes on trader, adding that "consensus seems to be that there is a big increase in algorithmic and high-frequency trading in this time zone." The trend began on Oct. 31, with gold futures falling $11 in a minute on nearly 9,000 lots (20x the norm) - all happening when the Chinese market is at lunch. As one Hong Kong precious metals trader remarked, "someone is utilising these thin trading volumes to get a turbo steroid move."

While the biggest news of the day will certainly be China's rate cut (and the Dutch secret gold repatriation but more on the shortly), here is a list of all the other central-banking/planning events which have moved markets overnight, because in the new normal it no longer is about any news or fundamentals, it is all about the destruction of the value of money and the matched increase in nominal asset values.

• Banks Had Unfair Advantage From Commodity Units (Bloomberg)
• Report Notes Deals Between Goldman, Deutsche and Others Drove Up Aluminum Prices (WSJ)
• Goldman, Morgan Stanley Commodity Heyday Gone as Units Faulted (BBG) - because when you can no longer manipulate, you move on...
• Lenders Shift to Help Struggling Student Borrowers (WSJ)
• Immigrants face major hurdles in signing up to new Obama plan (Reuters)
• Distressed Debt in China? Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet, Buyers Say (BBG)
• Banking culture breeds dishonesty, scientific study finds (Reuters)
• Amazon Robots Get Ready for Christmas (WSJ)

• Yellen Inherits Greenspan’s Conundrum as Long Rates Sink (BBG)
• West African Mining Projects Take Hit From Ebola Crisis (WSJ)
• Saudi oil policy uncertainty unleashes the conspiracy theorists (Reuters)
• Senate Rejection of Keystone XL Measure Sets Up 2015 Showdown (BBG)
• Ferguson, Missouri, remains on edge ahead of grand jury report (Reuters)
• Putin Said to Stun Advisers by Backing Corruption Crackdown (BBG)
• Italian ‘Invasion’ Has Swiss Fuming as Immigration Vote Looms (BBG)
• Apple and Others Encrypt Phones, Fueling Government Standoff (WSJ)

Once again all eyes are on the carry-trade driving Yen, whose avalance into oblivion is picking up speed, and where the formerly unimaginable USDJPY level of 120 as presented here in September, is now looking like this week's business, with the only question how long until Albert Edwards' next target of 145 is hit leading to nuclear currency warfare between Japan, Korea, China and ultimately, the US and Europe. Unfortunately, for Japan, at this point the terminal currency collapse will do nothing to incrementally boost exports or its economy, and the former Japan finmin was on the tape warning again that the Japanese recession will persist as USDJPY over 115 is now hurting Japan, something which should by now have been clear to most.

The global power shift from the West to the East is alive and well

The authorities in Hong Kong are once again threatening to clear the protest sites. They have a legal pretext, in the form of court orders issued in response to complaints from the owners of buildings, who are losing traffic. The powers that be are in no mood for compromise. “Police urge the illegal road occupiers to obey the court order, remove obstacles and personal belongings, and stop the illegal occupation soonest.”

And what happens when the gold ETF inflows start picking up again?

• Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Calls Snap Election (WSJ) - as repeatedly priced in...
• Flash Boys Raising Volatility in Wild New Treasury Market (BBG)
• Not Greece again: Greek Bailout Review Stalls as Troika Demands Final Steps (BBG)
• Iran uses China bank to transfer funds to Quds-linked companies (Reuters)
• Porn Mags With Free Madrid Theater Tickets in Tax Protest (BBG)
• Hong Kong, China stocks ease on profit-taking after stock connect launch (Reuters) - Hang Seng down 500 points in past 2 days
• Halliburton Mega-Deal Sealed by CEOs Over Coke and Coffee (BBG)
• Wall Street to Reap $316 Million From Day of Mega Deals (BBG)
• Mass murderer Charles Manson gets marriage license, state says (Reuters)

Perhaps the biggest shock following last night's completely expected and very predictable (previewed here over a month ago) Japanese slide into triple- (actually make that quadruple) dip recession, is that it took the BTFTripleDip recession algos as long as they did to recover most of the overnight futures losses. Because after surging to 107 on a confused short squeeze kneejerk reaction, the USDJPY subsequently tumbled 150 pips to 105.50 as rationality briefly emerged, and the market wondered for a few brief hours if rewaring the destruction of one's economy is actually a prudent thing. Then, however, when European traders started walking into work, the now default USDJPY levitation on no volume came right back, and with that the correlation algo buying of E-mini futures, no doubt helped by the Bank of Japan itself taking advantage of the CME's ES liquidity rebate program. Because without confidence as expressed by the lowest and only common denominator left - global equities - there is nothing else.

This process is not over, not by a long shot. As anyone who invested during the Peso crisis or Asian crisis can tell you, when carry trades blow up, the volatility can be EXTREME.

Our world, our life, has been built on debt and propaganda for many years. They have kept us from noticing how poorly we are doing. But now a third element has entered the foundation of our societies, and it’s set to eat away at everything that has – barely – kept the entire edifice from crumbling apart. Deflation.

Three important factors which should support gold above $1,100/oz are Chinese demand, central bank demand including from Russia and of course the Swiss Gold Referendum. We remain bearish in the short term but very bullish for 2015 and in the coming years.